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000
FXUS63 KOAX 160752
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
252 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of southeast
  Nebraska this morning until 8 AM.

- A low pressure system will bring severe storms through this
  morning moving, with a second round of storms possible this
  afternoon.

- Much cooler temperatures work their way into the region
  beginning Wednesday and are expected to last through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The warm front has lifted north and is draped across northeast
Nebraska causing storms to train across this area which is
leading to flash flooding concerns. Some areas could see
rainfall in excess of 2 inches in northeast Nebraska.

Elsewhere, we`re seeing a bit of a lull as we wait for the dry
line to arrive. You can see these storms currently across
central Nebraska and north-central Kansas. There is a much
greater amount of shear out ahead of these storms which has
allowed a QLCS to develop along the dry line with a distinct
bowing feature suggesting a damaging wind threat as well as
tornado threat. We have just issued a tornado watch for some of
our southeastern Nebraska counties, which may need to be
expanded eastward later this morning depending on how well the
QLCS is able to hold together as it moves into southeast
Nebraska. Hi-resolution models show that it may weaken as it
approaches the Missouri river, then re-intensifying as it moves
into Iowa after sunrise. Shear profiles may be able to hold this
line together, though.

This line of storms should exit our southwestern Iowa counties
by mid-morning, leaving us right under the surface low for the
afternoon. We get hit by the cold front during the afternoon
which will bring another potential round of thunderstorms,
though they will be more elevated in nature, but could bring
more of a wind threat. We will need to watch closely for the
potential for a wake low during the afternoon and evening, where
we could see wind gusts of around 45 to 55 mph mix down to the
surface on the back side of the low. We`ll have 50 to 60 kt
winds right off the surface at around 1 km with unidirectional
winds out of the northwest.

The low exits our area by Wednesday with more zonal flow setting
up across the central CONUS for midweek. With a broad trough in
place across the Northern Plains, temperatures will trend down
going toward the end of the week. A shortwave will bring another
chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday, but we don`t anticipate anything severe with this
system as it`s more of a deformation band on the northern
fringe of a low that stays to our south.

We stay mostly dry and cool through the weekend under this zonal
flow regime with the next big trough coming through Sunday
night into Monday. This won`t bring us any precip, but it does
bring back warmer temperatures going into next week as ridging
builds up behind it.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The first wave of storms is exiting to our northeast this
evening, with MVFR stratus spreading northward across eastern
Nebraska. The second wave of storms will arrive around 10Z,
bringing the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Winds
throughout the night will predominantly remain out of the
southeast at around 20 to 30 kt, but could become erratic around
thunderstorms due to outflow. The second line of storms will
exit the area around 12-15Z, with cigs improving dramatically
behind this line and VFR conditions expected. Winds will also
shift to southwesterly behind these storms, but continue to stay
around 20 to 30 kt. Expect a gradual shift more westerly with
time through Tuesday afternoon with additional storms possible
for KOMA and KLNK Tuesday afternoon, ending around 06Z
Wednesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy