861
FXUS64 KOHX 040151
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
851 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to slowly move from SW to NE
at this hour. The majority of the activity is south of I-40. Lightning
activity is coming down as we`ve lost the daytime heating to
really fuel the storms. The latest RAP guidance shows the best
surface-based instability remains over our SW counties, but that
value of 1500 J/Kg is much lower than earlier and is dropping as
is evident on radar; the storms over that area are quickly dying
out. With that, do expect widespread thunderstorm activity to
greatly dwindle down overnight. We are monitoring the potential
for flooding as some of these storms have dumped very heavy rain
over a short period of time. If you`re out driving tonight in any
of the areas that have received rain today, be careful and
watchful for ponding along roadways.

The latest CAMs show on and off showers continuing through the
overnight period tonight with a few rumbles of thunder here and
there. Saturday looks more of the same as today, but perhaps less
widespread. We don`t have much forcing to really help storms
get going tomorrow, but there will be plenty of instability. I`d
call tomorrow`s storms garden variety - pop-up, drop some heavy
rain and produce some lightning, maybe even a gust to 30 or 40mph
or so, then be done. It will also be hit-or-miss on who will see
these storms vs who doesn`t. Just in case, be ready to move any
outdoor plans temporarily indoors tomorrow. Outside of
thunderstorm chances, Saturday highs will be near 80 for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled
weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period.
Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential
rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across
locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon.
Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not
expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be
seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be
above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s
higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain
in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west
and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and
potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can
count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective
developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be
possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any
organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to
this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong
convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these
rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this
afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range
2.5" to 3.5."

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across Middle TN.
The threat will mainly be just to the south and east of Nashville
through 03z. IFR/LIFR conditions in any thunderstorms with heavy
rain, low vis, and low cigs. Things dry out after 03z and there is
a slight chance for light showers overnight. Scattered activity
will develop again tomorrow after 16z but should be less
widespread than today. Light southerly winds under 6 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  82  65  86 /  40  80  50  70
Clarksville    64  80  65  83 /  40  60  40  70
Crossville     61  74  60  79 /  60  90  50  80
Columbia       64  80  63  85 /  60  80  50  80
Cookeville     63  76  62  80 /  50  90  50  80
Jamestown      61  76  60  81 /  60  90  50  80
Lawrenceburg   64  79  63  84 /  60  80  50  80
Murfreesboro   64  79  63  85 /  50  80  50  80
Waverly        64  80  64  84 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Mueller