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000
FXUS64 KOHX 152352
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
652 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Another very warm spring day across the midstate with current
temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80. Temps are running a
couple degrees cooler than yesterday at this time due to much
higher low level moisture with dewpoints now in the upper 50s to
low 60s, along with a bit of cloud cover. However, plenty of dry
air aloft and ample sunshine should still help us warm to around
yesterday`s levels, with a near-record warm day of highs in the
80s anticipated. Record highs for today are 87 in 1936 at BNA and
81 in 2002 at CSV, and it will be close to tying or breaking those
records at both locations. Still anticipating some thunderstorms
to develop across KY later this afternoon, but this activity is
still expected to remain well north of us.

Winds and cloud cover will increase tomorrow at all levels as a
powerful upper level low moves out of the Plains into the
Midwest. Even so, highs will reach well into the 80s once again.
A few showers are possible in our northwest counties early in the
day, with additional showers possible areawide in the late
afternoon and early evening. By late Tuesday evening, a loosely
organized and weakening line of showers and storms is expected to
reach our northwest counties, then move across much of the area
while weakening further into Wednesday morning. Little CAPE is
forecast in our cwa ahead of this activity, so no strong or
severe storms are currently expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will begin moving into Middle
Tennessee as the aforementioned upper level low weakens while
passing across the Great Lakes. Bulk of upper forcing with this
system will remain to our north, and forecast soundings are
showing a stout capping inversion present across our area - so it
remains unclear how much if any shower or storm activity we will
see. However, most guidance indicates the cap should weaken
enough with daytime heating, a glancing blow from the upper low,
and the approaching front to allow for at least isolated showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Should storms be
able to get going and maintain themselves in our cwa, forecast
sounding parameters are very favorable for severe thunderstorms
with MLCAPE near 2000 J/Kg, mid level lapse rates between 8-9
C/km, and SRH near/over 200 m2/s2. Large hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes would all be possible with this activity
before everything weakens after sunset.

Middle Tennessee will get a brief break in rain chances late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning before another upper low
and associated 85kt H5 jet moves across southern Canada and the
Great Lakes, bringing our next round of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon through Friday. Although an isolated strong
storm is possible with this activity on Thursday afternoon, much
weaker CAPE/shear should preclude any severe storms.

Temperatures cool down over the weekend as the cold front finally
pushes south of us, with lows dropping into the 40s and highs
only reaching the 60s. Embedded shortwaves in the subtropical jet
stream overhead will bring yet another round of showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend in an overrunning-type rain event.
We finally dry out for good by Monday of next week, although with
the polar jet remaining quite active the dry weather likely won`t
last for long.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Additional clouds will move into the area tonight, but skies are
expected to remain VFR. Southwest winds will weaken overnight and
then turn out of the south by Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  85  66  82 /  10  10  70  50
Clarksville    65  84  66  81 /  20  10  80  40
Crossville     59  80  62  73 /   0  10  60  60
Columbia       64  84  65  81 /  10  10  60  50
Cookeville     62  82  64  75 /  10  10  70  70
Jamestown      60  81  62  75 /  10  10  60  70
Lawrenceburg   63  82  64  79 /  10  10  60  60
Murfreesboro   63  85  65  80 /  10  10  60  60
Waverly        65  84  66  82 /  20  10  70  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Whitehead