Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
750 FXUS64 KOHX 011135 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 635 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Areas of fog have developed especially along the Cumberland Plateau over the last three to four hours with a couple sites reporting visibilities of 0.25 mile. Visibility trends will be monitored over the next few hours to assess if a dense fog advisory is needed. West of the plateau the fog is not as prevalent. All of the fog will mix out by 13-14z this morning with plenty of sunshine today. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. A few patches of fog are possible tonight but it will not be as widespread as what we are seeing now. Thursday will be even warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 90 degrees still looks possible at a couple locations including BNA. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The pattern will get more active starting Thursday night. A weakening shortwave will approach the area with a few showers possible before daybreak. Another disturbance will be on its heels sparking more showers and storms on Friday. MUCAPE values Friday afternoon will be 1500-2000 J/kg but effective shear will be around 15 kts so widespread severe storms aren`t expected, but an isolated downburst can`t be completely ruled out. We should temporarily dry out late Friday night into Saturday morning. A few scattered showers and storms will be possible Saturday afternoon particularly along the plateau. MUCAPE values again will be in the 1250-1750 J/kg range but shear will remain weak. Another wave will approach late Sunday or Monday bringing another chance of showers and storms. Temperatures through the extended forecast continue to look warm with lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A ridge of high pressure situated just to our east will influence the weather pattern across Middle Tennessee this TAF period. Expect VFR wx today/tonight with generally light winds shifting to the S/SE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 62 88 67 / 0 0 10 40 Clarksville 86 61 87 65 / 10 0 10 50 Crossville 80 56 83 62 / 0 0 10 10 Columbia 86 59 87 65 / 0 0 10 40 Cookeville 81 59 84 64 / 0 0 10 20 Jamestown 81 57 85 62 / 0 0 10 10 Lawrenceburg 85 60 86 65 / 0 0 10 30 Murfreesboro 86 59 88 65 / 0 0 10 30 Waverly 87 62 88 64 / 0 0 10 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Rose