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000
FXUS64 KOHX 112317
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
617 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to push
generally northeastward as surface frontal system pushes
through mid state region with broad upper level low pressure
center influences starting to move across TN River Valley Region
as the noontime hour approaches. Maybe a strong thunderstorm or
two will be possible, mainly across locations east of I-65
Corridor Region, as afternoon hours progress today. As totality
of present weather system shifts northeastward, look for dry
conditions to finally prevail across almost our entire mid state
region after midnight tonight through day on Friday, except for
Upper Cumberland Region where a few weak upper level shortwave
passages could result in development of isolated showers or
thunderstorms. Lows tonight will fall closer to seasonal normal
values with highs on Friday as skies continue to clear and ridging
influences building in from the west result in highs now a few
degrees below seasonal normal values, generally spanning the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Dry conditions will continue, but warming conditions will be main
highlight as weekend through much of next work week progresses
with unseasonably warm temperatures expected. Shower chances will
return to our area as Monday night through Thursday afternoon
progresses as storm systems develop across central CONUS and
shift northeastward placing much of the southeastern CONUS,
including our area, in a rich moisture warm air advection pattern.
This, along with waves of southwesterly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave passages aloft move across mid state region, will result
in development of isolated to scattered convection through much
of next work week.

 &&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Active wx will continue through today as a low pressure system
and cold front move across the area. Conditions will vary from
MVFR to IFR with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
South winds will become gusty over 25KT at times, except higher
around storms. Frontal passage will occur from west to east from
18Z-23Z. Winds will become west northwest with gusts near 30KT.
Numerous showers along and trailing the front will keep conditions
low MVFR to IFR for several hours after fropa. Look for
improvement late tonight with most sites rising to VFR between
12/06Z and 12/12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Showers are still moving through the area and they will gradually
move out from west to east after 01z. All of the shower activity
should clear the area by 05z. Low cigs will continue to be an
issue for eastern terminals with MVFR/IFR cigs until 05z. Other
terminals should remain in VFR. Skies clear from west to east
overnight but VFR clouds will stick around out east. Overall
quieter weather tomorrow but a few afternoon showers will be
possible for KCSV. Breezy northerly winds gusting up to 25 knots
this evening. Winds will let up some overnight but we will see
breezy winds again tomorrow with gusts to 27 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      49  67  47  77 /  40  10  10  10
Clarksville    47  66  45  76 /  20  10  10  10
Crossville     44  60  41  69 /  50  20  10  10
Columbia       47  68  44  77 /  30  10  10  10
Cookeville     45  62  43  70 /  40  20  10  10
Jamestown      44  60  41  69 /  50  30  10  10
Lawrenceburg   47  67  44  77 /  40  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   47  68  43  77 /  40  10  10  10
Waverly        47  67  44  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Mueller