176
FXUS64 KOHX 290527
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Patchy clouds and isolated sprinkles that were observed Sunday
afternoon had dissipated as of 740 PM CDT. Skies were mainly
clear, but clouds will increase again late in the night as
moisture streams out from storms to our west. The night will be
quite mild as a south breeze continues. Lows will be mainly in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. No major forecast changes are needed this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Full-on spring and almost-summer has arrived, Middle TN. (It looks
like) Gone are the days of the chilly mornings and mid-60s
afternoons. Even the 8-14 day outlooks have us warmer and wetter
than normal. We`re now into the 80s every day and low to mid 60s
each morning - unless you live on the Plateau, then you get to enjoy
the coolish temps still. Today will be a warm, dry and breezy day
with afternoon highs creeping into the low to mid 80s for most. Cu
fields have already developed across the area and with a cap in
place, we will remain rain-free. However, this will change tomorrow.
All of the activity that has been going on upstream from us the last
couple of days will finally reach the mid-state tomorrow afternoon.
The good news is, the weather actually looks pretty benign when it
gets here. By the time the active pattern gets here, we`ll be losing
shear, lapse rates fall off and CAPE numbers should remain below
1000 J/Kg. This all spells thunderstorms, but nothing looks severe
right now. As was mentioned in the AFD earlier this morning, if
there`s anything that sticks out in forecast soundings, it`s PW
values. Current progs show these numbers creeping above 1.50" late
tomorrow afternoon. While I`m not overly concern about flooding,
efficient rainfall could give a couple of spots in Middle TN a quick
2+ inches, leading to some localized issues. Just something to keep
in mind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday`s evening storms will be slow to move out of the area. Models
want to hold onto rain/storm chances through Tuesday afternoon,
especially east of I-65. Similar to Monday, we`ll likely see some
sub-1000 J/Kg CAPE build into this area, but shear values remain
unimpressive, so no severe weather is expected.

We`ll catch a break from the storms Wednesday and Thursday, but both
will likely be our warmest days of the week as an upper level
ridge amplifies into the Ohio Valley. The NBM continues to be very
aggressive with upper 80s west of the Plateau for Thursday`s
highs and might be a tick higher with probs for getting to 90. If
that happens, we would tie a 123-year record.

Rain chances move back into the region on Thursday starting another
couple days of active weather. For now, CAPE and shear remain
unimpressive as there just isn`t enough time to destabilize before
storms get here. Long way off, but as of now, severe weather looks
unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will continue through Monday afternoon. Showers and
possibly some storms will begin to impact the CKV/BNA/MQY from
west to east late Monday afternoon through the evening hours.
Visibilities could drop to MVFR at times during heavy rain. Cigs
will deteriorate to MVFR after 00z at CKV and after 03z and
BNA/MQY. CSV and SRB should remain VFR through the taf period.
Winds will continue to be southerly for the forecast generally
between 5-10 kts. Gusts around 20 kts are expected during the
daylight hours on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  64  80  59 /  50  90  40   0
Clarksville    78  62  79  58 /  80  90  20   0
Crossville     78  58  73  55 /  10  90  80  10
Columbia       83  61  80  57 /  50  90  40   0
Cookeville     80  61  73  56 /  20  90  70  10
Jamestown      80  59  73  55 /  10  90  80  10
Lawrenceburg   81  62  78  58 /  40  90  50   0
Murfreesboro   83  62  78  56 /  30  90  50   0
Waverly        78  61  80  57 /  80  90  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan