130
FXUS64 KOHX 081655
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1155 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Earlier warm front now stationary and centered w-e just north of I-
40. This far northern area has served as the flood threat with
numerous advisories and warnings issued thus far. Flood reports have
been received mainly across the Robertson and Sumner county areas.
Energy along the boundary is working eastward with the bulk of the
activity now across the Plateau. To the south, airmass is hanging on
to a weak cap despite warming temps. Upstream however, 2 separate
slugs of energy will be pushing southeastward. This translates to 2
rounds of severe. The 1st will occur from 3pm to 6pm, with the 2nd
round in the 8 pm to midnight timeframe. All forms of severe weather
will be possible. Instabilities will be greatest across our south so
I would think the largest(non tornadic) hail would occur there. As
for rainfall amounts, the flood watch shall continue. Latest Hrrr
shows isolated storm totals of up to 6 inches across an area
stretching from far north central middle TN eastward across the
northern Plateau. Now models do hang onto the light to
moderate shower activity through 12Z to 18Z before ending.

Look for clearing skies Thursday night with cooler temps. Upper
troughing will feature a Friday shortwave with a few showers.
Saturday looks similar with an additional shortwave. The near term
temps will continue to run rather warm tonight and Thursday with 80s
for highs once again. Noticeably cooler by Friday morning with lows
back down into the 50s. We may seven see some 40s by Saturday
morning.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

In the extended forecast, ridging will return for Monday. The next
system of interest will be for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Instability looks weak for now so mostly just looking at showers and
non severe tstms for now.

Extended temps will start out on the cool side but will warm back to
near 80 for highs by mid week. Overnight lows will work back into
the lower 60s as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Messy aviation forecast today with TSRA in the area through much
of the current TAF period. Current line of TSRA will likely begin
to stall around the I-40 corridor, so some vis impacts as that
line progresses. Rest of the day will have scattered TSRA, with
periods of low cigs/vis. Final line of TSRA will move through
around to after 03Z from NW to SE, with conditions beginning to
improve near to after the current TAF period. Winds will remain
predominately from the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  68  86  58 /  80  90  30  10
Clarksville    82  66  83  54 / 100  80  10  10
Crossville     79  63  79  53 /  90  90  50  20
Columbia       85  66  85  56 /  80 100  30  10
Cookeville     80  65  80  54 /  90  90  50  20
Jamestown      80  63  79  53 /  90  90  50  20
Lawrenceburg   84  66  84  57 /  70 100  40  10
Murfreesboro   85  66  85  55 /  80 100  40  10
Waverly        82  66  83  54 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Grundy-
Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-
Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Adcock