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000
FXUS66 KOTX 242152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break tonight and Thursday morning, another system
will bring wide spread precip to the Inland Northwest. It will
start a cooler, showery period that will last through the weekend
and into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight into Thursday: As the weak cold front exits the region,
winds will calm. Thursday morning will start pleasant. Increasing
clouds will build west to east across the region as the next
system begins to move into the Inland Northwest. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

Late Thursday through Friday: Another Low will quickly move
through the Pacific Northwest. It is expected to bring a round of
much needed showers to the Inland Northwest with most areas with
at least a 30% probability of at least a tenth of an inch of
precip. The east slopes of the Cascades is expected to be impacted
by the rain shadow effect and should receive less. Increased
cloud cover and cooler airmass will lead to cooling trend for the
rest the of period. An isolated lightning strike is possible with
these showers but confidence is very low. Thursday and Friday
highs will in the mid 50s to 60s. Overnight lows will be in the
30s and low 40s.

Saturday through Tuesday: Models are keeping the region in a
cooler, wet pattern as a strong Low slowly moves through the Gulf
of Alaska. The region can expect periods of mountain snow for the
Cascades and rain showers for the rest of the Inland Northwest.
Many areas will receive beneficial rains after the previous dry
spell across the region. Highs will continue to be in the mid 50s
and 60s. By the end of the entire period, portions of the northern
mountains and Idaho Panhandle could receive near half an inch of
precip. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and low 40s.
Some areas in the northern valleys could see upper 20s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A dry cold front will move across eastern Washington and
north Idaho bringing several hours of gusty winds this afternoon
and evening to the majority of airports in the region. Gusts in
the 20-25kt range will be possible through the Cascade gaps
including Wenatchee, Chelan, and Ephrata. Guidance from the HREF, GFS
MOS, and model soundings from the GFS and NAM generate clouds in
the 2000-3500ft range Thursday as early as 14z across north Idaho
and the eastern third of Washington. Rises in low level humidity
combined with warming after sunrise will likely produce a
scattered to broken stratocumulus deck around Spokane, Coeur
d`Alene, Pullman, and other north Idaho/northeast Washington
airports. /GKoch

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HREF probabilities
of ceilings below 3000ft peak around 30 to 50 percent for Spokane,
Coeur d`Alene, and Pullman between 16 and 20z and was the
preferred guidance for the TAFs. GFS MOS advertises 2500ft
ceilings around Spokane and Coeur d`Alene as early as 14z which
looks early compared to model soundings from the NAM and GFS.
/GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  60  44  57  42  58 /   0  40  80  70  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  58  43  53  41  55 /  10  30  90  80  30  50
Pullman        40  58  43  55  40  56 /  10  30  90  80  30  30
Lewiston       45  66  49  61  46  63 /   0  30  80  60  20  20
Colville       36  61  41  56  40  58 /  10  40  90  90  50  70
Sandpoint      41  55  44  52  41  54 /  10  40  90  90  50  70
Kellogg        44  55  45  50  43  53 /  10  40  90  90  50  70
Moses Lake     41  63  43  65  42  67 /   0  40  30  20  10  10
Wenatchee      44  60  46  62  44  63 /   0  50  30  20  10  10
Omak           41  63  45  62  44  65 /   0  50  70  50  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$