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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221304
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
904 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and a slight warming trend will start off the
week before a cold front returns rain chances Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Frost Advisory upgraded to Freeze warning for all counties in
  active growing season status. Expiration is at 9AM.

- Daytime highs will be 10-15F warmer than observed Sunday.

------------------------------------------------------------------

The freeze warning has been expired due to temperature rising
above freezing. Daytime temperature were nudged up and dewpoints
were nudged down for NBM clear-sky bias correction.

.. Previous Discussion ..

Clear skies, light wind, and dewpoints in the upper 20s has
resulted in temperatures dropping to 32F or lower across the
region. While there is certainly pockets of above freezing 2m
temperatures, latest surface observations show a sufficient
number of sites with freezing temperatures to warrant replacing
the Frost Advisory with a Freeze Warning for all counties
already in an active growing season status.

After the chilly start to the morning, temperatures will
recover between 25F and 30F over the course of the day, topping
out just below normal for late April. Rising heights and
increasing surface high pressure will provide a pleasant day
with dry conditions and abundant sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation returns later Tuesday into Wednesday.
- Total precipitation will be relatively low.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Temperatures will continue to trend up Tuesday and cloud
coverage will increase with warm, moist advection ramping up ahead
of an approaching front. Precipitation chances will increase
from west to east later in the afternoon...but be most likely
overnight with frontal passage. Precipitation totals will be
relatively light, ranging from near 0.50" north of I-80 to a
tenth south of the Mason-Dixon line with the higher amounts in
closer proximity to the associated surface low crossing the
Great Lakes.

With cloud coverage and the boundary layer remaining mixed,
overnight lows will be near 50F, but daytime highs should only
reach mid 50s at best as rain exits east and cold advection
behind the front.

With high pressure centering over the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, clouds should be minimal and wind light, so frost
freeze headlines may be needed again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions resume.
- Frost/Freeze potential early Thursday morning.
- Well above normal temperatures by the end of the weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------


High pressure will maintain dry conditions Thursday and through
the day on Friday. With the high well east of the region by the
end of the week, sfc winds will be back to a southerly
direction, and with upper ridging over the region, highs should
be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday.

Shower chances increase late Friday and into the weekend as low
pressure advances out of the central CONUS and over the Great
Lakes. Have kept thunder with the warm front out of the forecast
for now with 6hr NBM probs are largely below 10%. At this time
convection looks more likely on Sunday/Monday.

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through the weekend.
Going by 850mb temperatures and 500mb heights, highs should be in
the upper 70s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR is expected under the influence of high pressure through the
TAF period. Diurnal heating may offer a few to scattered
afternoon cu above 5kft and W-NW wind around 10kts. Warm
advection aloft ahead of the next shortwave will increase cirrus
by 00Z across the area. It is possible to see some influence in
lowering cigs as the next front begins to impact the area by the
end or just after the end of the TAF period.

.Outlook...
Expect some restrictions with the approach and passage of a low
pressure system late Tuesday into Wednesday creates increased
restriction potential along with widespread rain. There is high
confidence in high pressure supporting VFR conditions to end the
work week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...Milcarek/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...Shallenberger