261
FXUS61 KRLX 030745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
345 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this
afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next
week with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades
to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air,
transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front,
should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during
the day.

Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon,
with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as
moderate instability develops within the warm and moist
environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while
a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and
storm activity within the CWA overnight.

Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with
values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into
tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which
could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas;
however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the
fairly dry conditions leading up to today.

Tonight`s temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the
50s to 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Active weather will span into the weekend as a cold front halts
overhead and washes out. Warm and humid conditions festering
over the area, coupled with the front and mid-level shortwave
ripples, will yield showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Saturday. Convection timing will be at its highest during peak
heating hours in the afternoon, but retaining a slight chance
for storms even beyond sunset late Saturday night.

Upper level troughing progressing through the Ohio Valley on
Sunday will contribute to renewed potential for showers and
storms. Additional downpours will continue to chip away at flash
flood guidance, and may begin to impose local water concerns.
Antecedently dry soil conditions and blossoming vegetation
should help mitigate widespread concern.

More of the same on Monday, despite potential to see a brief
lull in activity Sunday night, as additional support arrives
from a southern stream disturbance. Daytime heating, albeit a
few degrees cooler than previous few days, will once again
promote increased potential for afternoon showers and storms,
especially across the southern half of the forecast area and up
along the spine of the Appalachians.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Unsettled weather prevails through much of the work week with
daily chances of showers and storms. A progressive upper level
pattern will continue to churn shortwave energy through the
heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians during the
extended period. The focus of precipitation falls over us during
this period of time under the guise of a stalled frontal
boundary overhead. Ample precipitable water values on the order
of 1.5 to 1.8 inches nestled over the region will continue to
promote heavy downpours with this activity, further aggravating
the threat for flooding for midweek and beyond.

00Z GFS run continues to imply a tightened pressure gradient
settling over the area as the upper level jet noses into the
Great Lakes region. This may promote breezy to occasionally
strong wind gusts for Wednesday and into the end of the valid
forecast period. Other global models aren`t as keen with the
placement of the upper jet and such a tightened low level
gradient.

Temperatures rise back into the 80s down in the lowlands for
Tuesday through Thursday, but possibly cooling off by the end of
the work week behind a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

While VFR is expected to persist for much of the area, some areas of
valley fog could form and cause localized restrictions to ceilings
or visibilities early this morning. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise, then VFR and increasing mid to
high level clouds are expected for the rest of the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this
afternoon and continue into tonight as a cold front approaches
from the west. Periodic MVFR or worse restrictions will be
possible during any heavier showers/storms later today and
tonight.

Calm to light winds are expected into the morning, then winds
increase to 5-10kts generally out of the southwest during the
day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of fog may vary from the
TAFs this morning. MVFR possible in heavier showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 05/03/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times from tonight
into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday
mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB