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000
FNUS71 KRNK 172108
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Rucker Gap - Meadow Creek RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
508 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A weak but mainly dry cold front will cross the area late tonight.
Winds will shift to the west and eventually the northwest behind this
front and will become gusty at times during Thursday. Minimum relative
humidities will fall below 30 percent during Thursday afternoon.
A stronger cold front will arrive by Friday to bring showers and
thunderstorms. Cooler weather will return by the weekend.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 11.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........40  24  24  30  41  41  47  42  36  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   10  10  10  10  0   0   0
Temp............69  66  64  63  61  60  60  59  58  58
RH..............46  53  59  66  70  74  75  76  76  77
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.12  11  11  11  12  13  13  12  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
Mixng wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..12  10  12  13  13  13  13  12  12  12
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
ADI.............8   7   5   8   11  11  11  11  5   8
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1K.12  10  9   10  10  12  13  12  10  12

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 15 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (81700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 early in the morning increasing to 110 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........34     29     26     10     6      8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............57     58     63     69     73     75
RH..............77     74     58     43     33     28
20 ft wind......W 6    W 6    W 7    W 8    W 8    NW 8
20 ft wind gust.10     10     14     16     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   2200   2900   3500   4300   4700
Mixing wind......W 15   NW 22  NW 18  NW 17  NW 21  NW 20
LVORI...........4      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.............7      61     66     74     106    108
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      5
VRate mph-ft/1K.14     48     53     61     90     93

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 5 to 13 mph decreasing to around 3 mph
                    late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northeast around 2 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (42900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................60 early in the evening decreasing to 1 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      6      20     18     24     47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............74     67     61     57     55     54
RH..............30     38     46     53     58     65
20 ft wind......NW 6   NW 3   NW 2   N 2    E 3    E 2
20 ft wind gust.11     5                    4      4
Mix hgt (ft)....3700   500    400    400    400    400
Mixing wind......NW 13  NW 5   NW 2   N 2    NE 2   NE 2
LVORI...........1      2      2      2      3      3
ADI.............60     2      1      1      1      1
Haines index....5      5      6      6      6      5
VRate mph-ft/1K.49     2      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning. Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms for the
                    remainder of the day.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in
                    the afternoon, then shifting to the west around
                    10 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East around 3 mph shifting to the south near 5
                    mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    the southwest 12 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (65400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 72 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........65           88           72
Weather cov.....             CHANCE       LIKELY
Weather type....NONE         RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                          CHANCE
CWR.............10           30           70
Temp............52           60           69
RH..............71           68           58
20 FT wind......E 2          S 4G6        SW 8G13
Mix hgt (ft)....400          1500         3800
Mixing wind......NE 1         S 5          W 20
LVORI...........4            3            1
ADI.............1            8            72
Haines index....5            5            4
VRate mph-ft/1K.1            6            75

$$
Forecaster...Wilson
Requested by...Conor Shanahan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410725.4/RNK
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL conor.shanahan@usda.gov,susan.greenleaf@usda.gov