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000
FXUS64 KSHV 211933
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
233 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Following a busy first half of the weekend, Sunday has been
nothing short of beautiful across the Four State as temperatures
have rebounded into the mid to upper 60`s and clear skies have
prevailed with high pressure influencing the FA. Clear skies will
carry over into tonight, with winds decoupling as the tight
pressure gradient associated with the arriving sfc ridge loosens
this evening. As a result, another cooler night is expected with
lows ranging from the upper 30`s across the north, to low to mid
40`s elsewhere.

By Monday, high pressure will sit directly overhead, continuing
the theme of clear skies and calm winds. Given the dry airmass
behind the frontal passage to end the week, and calm winds,
elected to trend on the high side of the guidance for MaxT`s
Monday afternoon. This was about a 1-3 deg F increase from the NBM
guidance. As a result, look for highs in the low to mid 70`s just
about areawide.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Pattern stays the same through mid week as the sfc ridge
influence starts to thin out by Wednesday evening, supporting some
low confidence rain chances across the NW zones. Aloft, ridging
will continue to work east across the Central Plains as upper
forcing begins to enter the Four Corners.

Typically when discussing synoptic patterns this far in advance,
there tends to be some disagreement amongst the guidance, and
various ensemble products. Suprisingly, the signal for persistent
upper level ascent into the Central Plains through the end of the
upcoming weekend remains consistent and has been advertised well
to this point. How that influences the Four State is still to be
determined, as finer details this far out are harder to nail down.
However, it does point towards the return of widespread rain
chances by the end of the week as forcing gets closer to the
region.

Temperature wise, given the influence of the sfc ridge and dry
pattern locally through the first half of the period, along with a
return to southerly winds given the eastward motion of the high
pressure, a gradual warming trend looks to be in cards. This will
be noticeable as we slowly climb through the 80`s to near 90 deg
F by the end of the period on Saturday. Overnight lows look to
follow a similar trend as they climb through the 60`s to near 70
deg F.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mid cloudy deck dissipated very quickly this morning and all we
are left with is some developing post-frontal airmass cumulus that
has developed due to sfc heating. This moisture will vary between
35hdft and 5kft through the daytime hours before we lose this
cloud cover after sunset. Should stay mostly clear overnight
and through the day Monday. NNE winds today sustained near 10kts
with some higher gusts this afternoon. Those winds will decouple
this evening with all sites becoming calm to light and variable
overnight with returning SSE winds across our NE TX terminals
after 22/15z with speeds near or below 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  72  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  42  70  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  68  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  71  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  69  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  44  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  72  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  44  73  48  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13