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000
FXUS64 KSJT 151951
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
251 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Late this afternoon, skies were mostly cloudy as mid-level
moisture was streaming into west Texas from the southwest.
Southerly surface flow was advecting a warm and humid airmass into
the region, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. A
dryline was analyzed from Lubbock southward through the Permian
Basin and should mix eastward through early evening. CAPE values
of 2500 J/kg were prevalent in the warm sector. Strong to severe
storms should start developing by around 5pm along the dryline
during peak heating. The best dynamics to support isolated to
scattered storms with large hail will be across the Big Country,
especially north of I-20. However, chances for storms will exist
as far south as San Angelo this evening. Another round of storms
could occur overnight as a cold front will sweep through the area,
but this will be dependent on how much storm coverage occurs
during the evening. By tomorrow, a much drier airmass will move
into the area, ending any further chances for storms. Highs
tomorrow should be in the upper 80s to low 90s, although heat
index values should be lower due to the lower humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Very warm to hot temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 80s in the Big
Country, to lower to mid 90s for most of the area farther south.  On
Thursday, a strong cold front will move south into the Big Country
in the mid-to-late afternoon. Timing of this front will have an
impact on temperatures. Ahead of the front, compressional warming
effects and considerable sunshine will result in temperatures
soaring well into the 90s. May make a run at the 100 degree mark in
parts of the Concho Valley. The cold front will push south across
the rest of the area Thursday night. With the approach and arrival
of the cold front and a possible disturbance aloft, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday afternoon and evening,
mainly across the southeast half of our area.

Temperatures Friday will be much cooler across the northern half of
our area, and to a lesser extent in our southern counties. A
reinforcing cold front is progged to move south across the area
Saturday night, with much cooler and well-below normal temperatures
following on Sunday. Our area can expect increased cloud cover
Friday through the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs are
progged to move east across the southern tier of the CONUS, and will
bring a low to medium chance (20 to 40 percent) of showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Friday night. The arrival of the
next cold front should focus showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, and the global models indicate that
heavier rainfall will be possible. An overunning setup will keep
a chance for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms into Sunday.
Sunday looks to be the coolest day of this forecast with
temperatures confined to the 60s for highs area wide. Rain chances
should shut off by Monday, with a decrease in cloud cover. The
airmass will modify with a return to southerly winds, although
temperatures will remain below normal on Monday. After morning
lows in the mid to upper 40s, highs are expected to be in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR and breezy conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon.
However, thunderstorms could impact sites across the Big Country
and as far south as San Angelo no later than 00Z. Storm impacts
should be brief but could occur anytime between 23Z and 04Z. MVFR
ceilings should develop in the wake of any storms overnight,
before improving tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     58  87  58  90 /  40   0   0   0
San Angelo  59  89  58  93 /  40   0   0   0
Junction    67  93  63  97 /  30  10   0  10
Brownwood   65  87  59  90 /  50  10   0   0
Sweetwater  57  87  58  88 /  30   0   0   0
Ozona       58  87  60  90 /  30   0   0  10
Brady       67  89  63  92 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...SK