370
FXUS64 KSJT 031127
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
627 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...Severe weather expected again this afternoon and evening...

Even with the showers and thunderstorms we`ve seen over the past few
days, moisture is still plentiful across the area. Low clouds are
already overspreading much of the area early this morning and should
stay in place through the mid/late morning before mixing out. As the
boundary layer warms through the day, we will see large scale
destabilization across the area. With dew points ranging from the
mid 60s to lower 70s, MLCAPE values by early afternoon will be on
the order of 3000-4000 J/kg. Similar to the past few days, shear is
still going to be on the more marginal side, especially in the low
to mid levels around 30-35 kts. Storms are expected to initiate off
of the dryline which should be in the vicinity of the Permian Basin
by mid afternoon. Storms will likely go up quickly should remain
discrete initially. Very large hail will be the main threat with the
initial development along with a subsequent damaging wind threat.
While the tornado threat is generally on the low side thanks to weak
low level flow, we will have to watch boundary and storm scale
interactions as these may be able to enhance local conditions and
make tornadic development more favorable (similar to what we saw
yesterday). Storms are expected to grow upscale with time, likely
becoming a more linear feature where a transition to more of a wind
threat is expected. Though, given the favorable thermodynamic
profiles, large hail will still remain possible through the duration
of the storms lifecycle. These storms will be efficient rainfall
producers as noted by Pwat values over 1.25 for nearly the entire
area. Though the storms should be moving fast enough to limit flash
flood potential, many of our northern and eastern counties are
already decently saturated thanks to rain events over the past week
or 2 so it won`t take much to potentially create some problems.

High temperatures today will range from the lower 80s across the Big
Country and Heartland, locations that will remain socked in cloud
cover for longer, to the lower 90s in the Concho Valley and along
the I-10 corridor. Clouds will rebuild across the area tonight,
behind the storms, keeping low temperatures mild in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Severe weather and heavy rainfall will continue to be the main
issued through the weekend, ahead of unusually hot conditions for
next week.

Air mass remains very unstable for Saturday ahead of a weak cold
front and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Most
models depict fairly widespread thunderstorm initiation by
Saturday afternoon across the Permian Basin and South Plains and
then quickly rolling into West Central Texas late in the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Widespread convection may
end up decreasing the severe threat, but increasing the heavy
rainfall threat. Right now, appears the greatest severe threat
will be across the Concho Valley west into the Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos ahead of the front and in an area that may see a
little more sun before the storms develop.

By Sunday, multiple rounds of convection may begin to take its
toll on the air mass and make it a little harder to destabilize.
Widespread convection once again though with the remnants of the
frontal boundary draped across the area. Highs may still in the
upper 70s and lower 80s across the area.

Rainfall totals for Saturday and Sunday will begin to add up, and
portions of the area will see very heavy rainfall. Where is the
question, and does the heavy rainfall occur on areas that have
already seen some decent totals over the last week. No Flash Flood
Watch at this point, but after we see where todays convection ends
up, we may need to consider something.

Main upper level trough pushes across the Southern Plains by
Monday afternoon, leaving a ridge aloft to set up across the area.
Latest model blends are showing mid to upper 90s by Wednesday and
Thursday as dry and hot pattern prevails.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Fairly widespread MVFR to LIFR ceilings have covered the area. It`s
not as dense as initially indicated with scattered VFR ceilings
poking through every once and awhile. Visibilities range from VFR at
KABI and SJT to LIFR at KBBD. These will likely lift into the
high-end IFR to VFR range in the coming hours. All sites should
see ceilings lift back to VFR between 16-18Z (maybe earlier if the
breaks in cloud cover continue). Winds will be out of the east to
southeast today with some sites seeing gusts to around 20 kts by
late afternoon. Chances for showers and storms return late this
afternoon and evening across the area. Have given a first guess at
timing for the sites but this will most likely need to be refined
and updated with further hi-res guidance. Sub-VFR ceilings are
expected to build back in after the storms though there remains
uncertainty in just how low these ceilings will go.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  62  80  61 /  30  40  70  90
San Angelo  90  64  85  63 /  30  30  60  80
Junction    92  67  87  65 /  20  20  30  70
Brownwood   83  66  81  63 /  20  30  60  80
Sweetwater  84  62  79  61 /  40  50  80  90
Ozona       89  65  84  63 /  30  30  40  70
Brady       84  65  81  63 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...50