992
FXUS62 KTAE 040535
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
135 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Main updates were to refine rain chances through the overnight
hours and into early parts of Saturday morning. Upper level
shortwave pivots through in the overnight hours and with upstream
activity still continuing and some weak low-level convergence this
evening along a frontal boundary, I have upped rain chances
slightly for the overnight hours. Much of the activity the next
few hours will be across southeast AL as the shortwave pivots
through, with lighter showers elsewhere. This activity slides
east overnight and then more activity develops closer to daybreak
across the I-75 corridor and into the eastern Big Bend as the
upper level forcing and weak frontal boundary help spur new
development.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a storm system attendant to its
shortwave trough traversing eastward across the Lower MS Valley with
a downstream ridge axis bisecting the Coastal Carolinas down to the
FL Peninsula. These features are making for warm/moist conditions
with a mix of cloudiness, and isolated showers & thunderstorms
today. The latter is seabreeze driven, initially focused mostly
along the Eastern FL Big Bend before drifting towards the I-75
corridor into the early evening hrs. Additional cell development is
possible from remnant outflow boundaries during that time.

Lingering showers are possible tonight from the west as the
aforementioned shortwave pivots NE through the Wiregrass. A muggy
airmass will make for an unseasonably warm overnight/early-morning
period with widespread forecast lows in the upper 60s, or about 10-
12 degrees above normal! Patchy fog is also forecast to develop in
the pre-dawn hrs from Southern AL/Emerald Coast, then spreading to
the FL Big Bend into parts of South-Central GA. Dissipation should
occur within a couple hrs after sunrise.

For tomorrow, expect greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms
thanks to some upper-level support provided by the lifting
shortwave, afternoon seabreeze, and sufficient daytime instability
amidst a moist airmass. These parameters should support deep
convection capable of strong/gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy downpours. The latter could produce localized high
rain amounts exceeding 1 inch. Minimal vertical wind shear precludes
severe weather concerns, but several strong storms (perhaps isolated
"pulse" severe) are likely. The best chances are along the
interstate corridors, followed by a northward drift past the FL
state line. Aside from storm activity, temperatures peak in the
mid/upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Another shortwave will move across the mid-South Sunday into
Sunday evening, which will bring another enhancement to our
chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon. The highest rain
chances will be across southwest GA and the eastern FL Big Bend.
Some mid-level dry air as well as inverted-V profiles on forecast
soundings may lead to some gusty wind potential Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, it will continue to be warm and humid with highs in the
upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

One more shortwave traverses the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Monday
afternoon, which provides another boost to our rain chances.
However, forecast soundings don`t appear as conducive for gusty
winds given less mid-level dry air and more moisture near the
surface. Highs Monday will be in the upper 80s with lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

Beyond Monday, strong ridging takes hold of the area, shutting off
the rain and bringing increasing heat through the middle to
latter part of the week. Ensemble guidance indicates that we may
see 500 mb heights near 589-590 dam, which is close to record
heights for this time of year based on SPC`s sounding climatology.
Similarly, 850 mb temperatures will be in the 18-22C range, which
is also near record levels for this time of year. All that to
say, it`s going to be hot. Highs will climb in to the lower to
middle 90s, and with dew points near 70, heat index values could
approach 100 in some areas. Lows will also climb into the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Fog and/or low stratus will be possible across most of the area
this morning with light showers also possible across the northern
sites. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid to late morning.
Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected this
afternoon, with the best chances across TLH/ABY/VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating
conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the
south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 3 feet into
the weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Afternoon and early evening thunderstorms capable of gusty/erratic
winds and lightning will be the main fire concerns the next 3 days.
For tomorrow, convection aims to focus along the interstate
corridors after seabreeze initiation on the Big Bend side, then
drifting north past the FL state line. Convective potential is
expected to be greater compared to today. Wetting rains are also
possible. Additional rounds of diurnal showers/thunderstorms are
forecast Sunday-Monday, albeit lesser coverage, but targeting
roughly the same locations as Saturday. Otherwise, look for hot
daytime conditions with highs in the upper 80s away from the
immediate coast, southerly winds, and a daily afternoon seabreeze.
High dispersions are forecast over parts of SE AL/FL Panhandle
Monday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Abundant moisture will be in place with a decent coverage of
showers and storms this weekend. While widespread totals of 0.5 to
1 inch, localized totals if storms are slow moving could reach 2
to 3 inches in a short period of time. This could result in some
nuisance flooding of poor drainage or urban areas. Otherwise, no
additional flood concerns are expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  67  88  67 /  70  10  40   0
Panama City   83  67  85  68 /  20   0  10   0
Dothan        89  65  88  66 /  40  10  40   0
Albany        87  67  88  68 /  70  30  50  20
Valdosta      86  67  88  67 /  70  30  60  20
Cross City    87  66  88  65 /  50  20  50  10
Apalachicola  80  69  82  70 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Young