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000
FXUS65 KTFX 230840
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
240 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Today through Thursday it will be warm and across North-central
and Central Montana. In Southwestern Montana there are
precipitation chances with a rumble of thunder possible on
Wednesday and Thursday. Friday into Saturday the next weather
system will move into the area and bring cooler temperatures and
precipitation. Sunday into early next week temperatures will warm
back up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tuesday through Thursday... Today an upper-level ridge
will move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with dry weather
and clear skies across the area on Tuesday. On Wednesday the upper-
level ridge remains in place over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. Embedded in the ridge there is a shortwave.
This shortwave will bring rain and potentially a few rumbles of
thunder and lightning to Southwestern Montana Wednesday afternoon
and evening. These thunderstorms will not be severe. Total rain
accumulations will be less than a tenth of inch with higher amounts
possible in locations that have a thunderstorm. On Wednesday
temperatures will be the warmest of the week. On Wednesday most of
the lower-elevations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana have a 70 - 100% chance for temperatures 70 degrees or
greater. On Thursday the upper-level ridge begins to move eastward
out of the area above North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. On Thursday along and south of the Montana Highway 200
Corridor and west of US Highway 287 south of Three Forks there is a
10 - 20% chance for a 0.10 of an inch of rain or greater. For the
lower-elevations from Three Forks to the Bozeman area south to the
Idaho border there is a 15 - 40% chance of 0.25 of an inch of
rain or greater on Thursday. The rain in Southwestern Montana on
Thursday could come in the form of a thunderstorm. For the
Gallatin and Madison ranges there is a 20 - 40% for a tenth of an
inch of snow or greater on Thursday.

Friday through next Tuesday... On Friday an upper-level trough will
begin to over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This
will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation to the area. This
upper-level trough will remain in place over North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana on Saturday. At this time precipitation
type/amount and how much cooler the area will get with this system
is uncertain. Additionally, currently it is likely that locations
along and south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor will receive the
highest total precipitation amounts. The mountains of Southwestern
Montana will most likely receive snow. This will need to continue to
be monitored for updates.

On Sunday clusters indicate that an upper-level ridge will most
likely move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
On Monday that upper-level ridge will most likely stay over the
area. This will bring a slight warm-up to North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana on Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday three of
the clusters (76% of ensemble members) indicate that there will be
an upper-level trough that begins to move toward Montana. This would
indicate a new weather system moving toward Montana. The other
cluster (24% of ensemble members) has zonal flow over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana which would keep status quo
weather for the area. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
1150 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 (23/06Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period. Some
passing high clouds are possible tonight, but overall do expect
increasing high clouds over the CWA on Tuesday afternoon. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  37  74  45 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  62  31  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  66  37  75  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  62  32  71  40 /   0   0   0  20
WYS  56  25  63  33 /   0   0  10  30
DLN  61  33  70  39 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  65  36  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  59  35  70  42 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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