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000
FXUS63 KTOP 181130
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms will push through eastern Kansas this
  morning with lingering rain chances into the afternoon. Some
  storms could become strong to severe with large hail and
  isolated damaging wind gusts being the main hazards.

- Windy conditions behind the front will be expected today with
  gusts up to 40 mph.

- Cooler temperatures continue into the weekend with highs only
  reaching the upper 50s and low 60s.

- There could be some frost Sunday morning impacting gardeners
  who have plants in the ground.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A busy evening of thunderstorms across the area has given way to a
brief lull as the strongest convection has made its way into
Missouri. A brief synoptic view of the area notes a strong jet
streak associated with an upper low in the northern Plains, and a
stout cold front draped from southwestern Kansas through
northeastern Kansas. An additional stalled front/warm front still
exists across far east-central Kansas and has helped to continue
elevated convection early this morning.

Over the past hour, the cold front has made its way further south
into richer low-level moisture and has begun to develop convection
from central Kansas through far northeastern Kansas. Meso-analysis
of the area south and east of this boundary shows 0-6km shear values
ranging from 25-45 knots, MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg and a strong LLJ 40-
60 knots. Even with much of the area already worked over from
earlier convection, persistent isentropic ascent in east-central
Kansas should continue to feed moisture needed for storm development
and persistence. That said, convection has had its issues becoming
overly strong, especially in central Kansas. This could be due in
part to greater upper-level ascent moving off into northern Kansas
and Nebraska, closer to the upper low. This should keep the
strongest and most sustained storms closer to far northeast Kansas.
That said, as the frontal boundary moves further into east-central
Kansas, more stout theta-e advection and steeper ML lapse rates
could produce an isolated strong storm with a large hail threat and
isolated severe wind gust. Confidence is not overly high in this
scenario, especially with low-level winds near-parallel to the
surface boundary and continuing to veer through the morning hours.

Following the surface cold front`s exit from the area around 8-9 AM
this morning, residual lift along the 850mb boundary will continue
precipitation chances into the early afternoon hours. High
temperatures today will reflect the cloudy and rainy conditions,
only topping out in upper 50s. Windy conditions will also be a
highlight for much of the day as strong pressure gradients behind
the front lead to gusts upwards of 35-40 mph from the north.

Looking ahead to Friday and the weekend, temperatures will remain
mild with highs only reaching the upper 50s and low 60s. Slight
chances of rain could impact portions of central and southern Kansas
Friday night into Saturday morning as some upper-level ascent moves
over the area, but outside that, our next chances for precipitation
should hold off until early/mid next week. As we are in growing
season, we will be keeping an eye on Sunday morning temperatures as
they could approach freezing, especially across far north-central
and northern Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A line of thunderstorms is making its way east of KTOP and KFOE
and should bring an end to thunder in the TAFs over the next
hour or so. Behind the cold front, strong and gusty north winds
will increase; sustained between 15-20 mph with gusts up to 35
mph at times. Low-end MVFR and some IFR CIGs can be expected
with scattered rain showers as the 850mb front passes through
this morning. Ceilings will begin to improve later this
afternoon but have kept gusts going through 7-8 PM this evening
as the BL begins to decouple. VFR conditions can be expected
for the remainder of the period with some mid to high cloud
cover filtering in early Friday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer