000
FXUS64 KTSA 261949
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
249 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Tornado Watch just issued(and will run through 02z)for all of E
OK to account for ongoing convection, along with additional storms
that have begun to develop along the dryline to the west. This
This area has recovered/destabilized through the afternoon with an
axis of surface based capes in the 3k-4k j/kg just ahead of the
dryline. Uncertainty remains as to amount of coverage that will be
associated with the dryline through the rest of the afternoon and
into the early evening, but ongoing storms should begin to
diminish in the 00z-03z time frame as instability is lost and the
dryline begins to retreat to the west. Once these storms diminish,
isolated warm advection showers and storms will be possible late
tonight.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Overall coverage tomorrow morning will remain low with ongoing
isolated warm advection activity. By afternoon, storms will have
developed to the west along the dryline as an upper level system
begins to move out of the Rocky Mountain region and into the
central Plains. Severe potential will increase across parts of E
OK from mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening. All
modes of severe will be in play during this time. The severe
threat will continue across the area for the overnight hours, but
a transition to more of a heavy rainfall/flooding threat still
appears likely Saturday night. Favorable low level and upper level
jet structures will interact with deep moisture over the area
(PWATS 1.5-2.0") and will be supportive of storms training over
the same areas. Have issued a Flood Watch for most of E OK
effective from 4pm Saturday to 1pm Sunday. Influences from the low
level jet will begin to wane Sunday morning, and the heavy
rain/flood threat will begin to diminish. However, the focus for
additional storms/severe potential will shift across SE OK and NW
AR Sunday afternoon and evening as the upper system begins to east
northeast into the high Plains. Boundary pushes into the area on
Monday, resulting in lower Rain and thunder chances that will
continue for the early part of the next work week. Slightly higher
chances for rain and storms return mid to late week as the next
surface front approaches.




&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Thunderstorm impacts in the near term will be most likely at MLC
and also at the W AR sites through 00Z, with an expected decrease
in coverage thereafter. Expect IFR conditions during
thunderstorms. Will continue a VCTS mention at the NE OK sites
which could see more isolated storms develop mid to late
afternoon, with amendments to address on station impacts when
known. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected tonight and into
tomorrow morning. Isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm
potential will redevelop tomorrow morning, especially at the W AR
sites, covered with a PROB30.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  81  61  77 /  10  60  90  70
FSM   66  84  66  77 /  40  50  80  90
MLC   67  82  63  76 /  20  70  90  90
BVO   63  81  58  77 /  10  70  90  70
FYV   61  82  61  74 /  40  50  80 100
BYV   63  80  63  71 /  40  30  60  90
MKO   65  80  60  74 /  20  60  90  90
MIO   64  81  60  74 /  20  50  90  90
F10   66  79  60  76 /  10  70  90  80
HHW   66  80  63  73 /  20  60  80  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for
     OKZ054>068-070-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...22