382
FXUS65 KTWC 010835
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
135 AM MST Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm, and dry this week with breezy afternoons
on most days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery paints a picture of clear skies
over Arizona with an approaching trough moving from the Great
Basin. The trough will pass to the north today and resulting in
the continuation of warm temperatures and a breezier afternoon.

As the week progresses, the synoptic pattern will be a westerly
zonal flow keeping temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s
for the rest of the week. The afternoon heating can bring the
typical afternoon breeze in many locations. This trend will
continue through until a change of pace in the weather: more
stronger breezes and slight dip in temperatures.

The ensemble models show a trough moving into the western coast
with some differences within the longer range models by the
weekend. The GEFS still and continue to lean into a deeper trough
solution that could bring a little more cooling to the region.
More like knocking off 3 to 10 degrees for Monday`s high
temperatures. The other two longer models show the shallower
trough solution with some minor variations. Still, the all of the
models show that Sunday will be on the stronger end of the
breezy conditions across region.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/12Z.
SKC conditions through the valid period. Light SFC winds this
morning and then becoming SWLY 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30
knots from 01/16z through 02/04Z. Then returning to light and
variable thereafter. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-8 degrees above normal
into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or
less most of this week, with afternoon gustiness resulting from
surface heating. The strongest winds are expected today, with
southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, and
again on Sunday. Min RH values in the valleys will generally be
in the single digits and 12-20 percent in the mountains.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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