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000
FNUS73 KUNR 241439
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Schenk Canyon Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
839 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies will continue this morning, with
an increase in high clouds this afternoon. Southeast winds this
morning will gradually turn to the south, then southwest around
1200. Gusts up to 20 mph expected with the southwest winds through
the afternoon. Expect RH to drop quickly to around 20-25 percent
as winds turn southwest, with potential to drop into the teens
during peak heating.

Expect winds to shift back to the east this evening around 2000,
with gusts up to 15 mph.

Higher humidity expected Thursday ahead of a cold front that will
arrive Thursday night. Showers/thunderstorms are possible in the
late afternoon, becoming more likely in the evening and overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (0-10 percent) this morning.
                    Becoming party cloudy (30-40) percent this
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 10 to 15 mph this morning, becoming
                    southwest 10 to 15 mph around 1200. Gusts up to
                    20 mph this afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.



Mainly dry and warm conditions will persist into Thursday,
with highs in the 60s to mid 70s each day. Breezy south to southeast
winds will develop across the western South Dakota plains this morning
and dimnish by late this evening. Breezy southerly winds will redevelop
Thursday for many of the same areas, especially south central South Dakota.
Relative humidities will drop to 15 to 20 percent across much of northeast
Wyoming and possibly into far southwest South Dakota this afternoon, but
winds are expected to be relatively light in these areas during the late
morning and afternoon hours. An unsettled pattern will develop
from Thursday through the weekend with showers likely, cooler
temperatures, and gusty winds. Some thunderstorms are also likely
Thursday afternoon and night.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......6800 to 7200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the southwest
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest around 10 mph early this evening,
                    becoming east around 10 mph around 2000.
                    Gusts to around 15 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......10000 to 10500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...JJ
Requested by...Josh Behlings
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412274.0/UNR
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Joshua.behlings@usda.gov