Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 221143 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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