Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 301140 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF NM...WITH SOME EXPANSION
IN ISOLD COVERAGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 BY EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING AFTER 01Z SUNSET.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD OF
THE STATE TODAY FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST 2 SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
FREE DAYS. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A
SLOW AND A BIT IRREGULAR RAMP UP IN MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EASES AT LEAST A LITTLE TO THE EAST...BUT STILL FAIRLY STRONGLY
RIDGES WESTWARD NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS
WESTWARD EXTENSION IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN KEEPING THE
MOISTURE FROM SURGING NORTHWARD MORE VIGOROUSLY. STILL WE CAN
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO...AT TIMES...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
LATTER HALF OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR SO OF THE STATE MAY BE LARGELY LEFT OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NE VERY EARLY THIS MORN.
SHOULD MOSTLY OR TOTALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORN AS THE MID
LEVELS WARM SOME AFTER SUNRISE. BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN LOWER 48 TODAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH A STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD FORCE SFC WINDS UP
SOME TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E CENTRAL AND NE. AS TROUGH
CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN...WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH HALF OR SO OF NM...WITH EVEN LOW GRADE
WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE. TEMPS WILL HEAD UP A
LITTLE MORE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS...THE
MOST SO ACROSS THE EAST PLAINS.

STRONGLY EAST TO WEST ORIENTED UPPER HIGH SETTING UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE FCST AREA. AFTN TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
MODERATELY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BUT ECMWF STILL SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE PLAINS...WEAKENING SOME AS IT
PROGRESSES THOUGH. THE GFS MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.

BETWEEN TUE AND FRI...DEPENDING ON THE MID TO LONGER RANGE MODEL
OF CHOICE...SOME BETTER MOISTURE ATTEMPTS A NORTHWARD PUSH...THOUGH
IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO CURVE AROUND THE STUBBORN
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH. MEANWHILE LATE WEEK AN UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SE OVER THE WEST COAST. OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF THE MORE BULLISH FAVORING PRECIP.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. RIDGE CORE CENTERED UP ON THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AS QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EN ROUTE TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS NEXT INBOUND WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WAVE WILL DIG TO THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHEARING EASTWARD IMMEDIATELY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH ONLY A QUICK CLIP OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. REBUILDING
RIDGE WILL CENTER UP ON NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH RIDGE
CORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE CORE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AND
REACH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...A LITTLE WARMER TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...AND SPILLING OUT OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND LITTLE PROSPECT FOR ANY BUT ISOLATED
WETTING RAINS IN TURN. LOCAL SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL SET UP OVER THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...AND FINALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE EL PASO AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT TODAY...DRIEST IN THE NORTHWEST WITH
FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES TONIGHT...BEST IN THE EAST. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES.

FOR SUNDAY...PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL SCRAPE EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE TROUGH NOW LYING FROM THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FINALLY ON TO THE
WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY WILL SUPPORT SOME UP TICKS IN SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AXIS. CONTINUED
DRYING WILL BRING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS PCT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GUSTS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GREEN FUELS AND REDUCED FIRE DANGER WILL
PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES THIS ROUND. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WITH NO VENTILATION ISSUES.

FOR MONDAY...COOLER AIR SWINGING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW PCT BOOST TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES FOR THE DAY. COLDER PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST...AS SURFACE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS MONDAY OVER THE EAST COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUED FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK COOLING TREND WITH STEADY
BOOSTS IN HUMIDITIES THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGE CORE BUILDS BACK IN
OVER NEW MEXICO...AND SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO CHIHUAHUA. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. DEGRADED VENTILATION TUESDAY
IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD BY THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED HIGH
COUNTRY SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH MODEST INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WITH
EXPANSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE
IN THE DAY.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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