Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 240555 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1055 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017
06Z TAF CYCLE
At 06Z...a frontal snowband continues to inch eastward toward
central NM. IFR/MVFR cigs & vsbys already in place around KFMN and
KGUP and this will continue through much of the overnight. Timing
of -SN impacts at KABQ and KAEG remains a big challenge as model
guidance is struggling to hold the snowband together or move it
much farther east despite impressive radar returns. Went with a
few hours of borderline VFR/MVFR with -SN between 07Z and 11Z.
-SN is expected to become terrain dominated behind the frontal
passage thru 14Z as winds turn westerly and drier, colder air
arrives. Winds will be quite strong again Tuesday. Guidance is
showing redevelopment of -SHSN by late afternoon across much of
northern and western NM.
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017...
A cold upper low along the west coast will swing inland tonight,
resulting in accumulating snow across much of western and
northern New Mexico. Favored area for the heaviest accumulation
remains across the southwest, west-central and northern mountains.
Scattered snow showers will develop over the northern third or so
of the state Tuesday afternoon and continue into Tuesday night.
Cold conditions will be the main weather story for the remainder
of the week as cold air continues to move into the state from the
north. High temperatures will range from 10 to as much as 20
degrees below average for late January through the week.
Deep upper low taking its sweet time sagging south along the west
coast today. This upper low is forecast to open up and sag southeastward
toward NM tonight. Models overdoing swly Pacific moisture fetch
in the warm sector with a more pronounced break in precip across
northwest NM today. Both hi-res and global models, however, agree
that the main mid-level (baroclinic) frontal band associated with
the upper trough will move through tonight. Still looking like
significant snowfall will favor the northwest half or so of the
state this evening and overnight. Temperatures will be plenty cold
for snow to stick to area highways and side streets as soon as or
shortly after it begins falling. Santa Fe and Taos have a good
shot at several inches of accumulation tonight with impacts to
travel expected Tuesday morning. ABQ metro could see a dusting
with an inch or two in the east mountains.
The slower progression of the main upper level trough will lead
to greater snow shower coverage across the northern mountains
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Colder air will continue to move in
from the west Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cold conditions will be
the main weather story through Saturday as a trailing upper trough
drops in from the north, keeping moderate to strong CAA across the
region underway. High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday will
range from 10 to 20 degrees below average for late January. Friday
looking like the coldest day of the week with Friday.
Temperatures modify somewhat Saturday and moreso Sunday,
especially east. Models agree that the ridge along the west coast
will keep Pacific troughs well north of the area into early next
The next in a series of troughs associated with a strong jet stream
progressing east from Southern California will impact New Mexico
overnight through Tuesday with strong to potentially damaging winds
and another round of wetting precipitation for the mountains and
some adjacent highlands. The Northern and West Central Mountains
will be the main beneficiaries, where the peaks may pick up another
foot. Much colder air will move in behind the trough and will send
temperatures below normal areawide. A northern stream trough will
push through Friday and bring another cold airmass that will
reinforce the cold air already in place and keep below normal
temperatures going through the weekend. Vent rates will trend down
through the end of the week and be poor areawide over the weekend as
the atmosphere becomes increasingly stable with a cold airmass at
the surface and increasing pressure heights aloft.
An extended dry period looks to be in the works beginning Wednesday
and continuing for the foreseeable future. Both the 12z ECMWF and GFS
show a large, dominant ridge of high pressure over the Eastern
Pacific extending into northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest at
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST Tuesday for the following zones...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for the following
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for the following zones...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following