Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 061814
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1214 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Other than to blend to observed trends through 17 UTC, no changes
to the ongoing forecast or headlines at this time. Will continue
to evaluate a possible extension of the Blizzard Warning in time
across portions of central North Dakota for further into the
evening hours.

UPDATE Issued at 932 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Based on webcam trends and emergency manager reports, added
LaMoure and Dickey counties to the Blizzard Warning.

UPDATE Issued at 906 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Converted the Blizzard Warning and the Winter Weather Advisory
across far western North Dakota to a Wind Chill Advisory in effect
for today through Wednesday morning. This is based on slowly
decreasing winds for these areas and webcam trends through 15
UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

No changes made with the update. Widespread blizzard conditions
continue per obs and reports from the public. I94 remains closed
from Dickinson to Valley City with no travel advised for most of
the region. Numerous observations with sustained winds of 35 to
45 mph with gusts around 50 mph along with 1/4SM or less
visibility in snow and blowing snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

A major winter storm continues across North Dakota this Tuesday
morning.

A deep 994mb surface low continues to pivot across northeast North
Dakota. As it does, wrap around moisture continues to stream into
central North Dakota. This is leading to moderate snowfall across
a wide swath of central and eastern North Dakota. A steep pressure
gradient and strong cold air advection are combining to produce
wind gusts up to 50 mph. This moderate snowfall is combining with
the high winds to limit visibility, to near zero at times. Latest
short-term guidance suggests the snowfall will end later this
morning, but the strong winds will persist through the afternoon
and maybe even into the evening hours. This will create dangerous
travel conditions nearly Statewide through the day.

Temperatures continue to fall today, with wind chills dipping down
to around 20 below. Basically, today is a great day to stay
inside.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills highlight
the long term.

Reinforcing shots of cold air will keep temperatures very cold
through the next week...potentially even longer. Wind chills will
be below zero all day...everyday...for the next week.

There will be a break from snowfall for a couple of days after the
Tuesday storm departs. Chances for snow will return Friday and
Saturday as an active patter sets up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Continued LIFR conditions in snow and blowing snow through this
afternoon with wind gusts to 45kts, slowly improving through the
evening. Across western North Dakota, slow improvement in LIFR/IFR
conditions through the day.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD



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