Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 030318
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
918 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD RIGHT NOW...WITH
SOME OF ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORDER OF THE CWA. THERE ARE ACTUALLY SOME ECHOES ON RADAR OVER
LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES.
NOT SURE IF ANY RAIN IS HITTING THE GROUND. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT. NOT MUCH TO
CHANGE IN GFE GRIDS...SOME SKY AND SOME SLIGHT POPS ALTERATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
WILL CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM THE
WYOMING/NEBRASKA DOWN TO LIMON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER KANSAS TONIGHT DUE
TO THE DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE SLIGHT WARMING WESTERLY WINDS LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. HAVE WARMED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THERE
OVERNIGHT....AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER OF THE DISTURBANCE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
STATE. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE
PLAINS...EXCEPT UPPER 50S OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH THE
REMAINING SNOW COVER. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 40S TO 50S. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A CLAP OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY
THURSDAY SHOULD BE PUSHING 80F OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 50S AND 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GFS AND NAM ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
DEEPER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY
SHOULD GROW WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...STILL NOT SURE IF WE CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP CONSIDERING HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LOW IS AND LACK
OF COOLING ALOFT. MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS APPEARS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO COOL. THIS
OCCURS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ROTATE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CLOSED LOW. MODELS TYPICALLY OVERDO THE
AMOUNT OF DRYING ON THE PLAINS IN THESE SITUATIONS SO WILL HAVE
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BORDER AREA.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TURN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THESE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS HINT AT DRAINAGE WINDS AT DIA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT
COULD HAVE NORTHWESTERLIES AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD
MOSTLY EAST OF COLORADO. REGARDLESS...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK



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