Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240824
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
424 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND NEAR LAKE ERIE WHILE NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MAINTAIN A
MORE EASTERLY WIND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING THE DAY
OFF TO OUR WEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
AROUND THE RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS INDIANA ALSO INDICATE A CLOUD DECK IN 8-10K RANGE WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF COOL IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR NEARLY ALL
AREAS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE TO NEAR 60 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW WITH HEALTHY THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN
06-12Z. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SO DELAYED PRECIP
CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WITH THE
SLOWER DEPARTURE TO THE SHOWERS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR FRIDAY WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH GUIDANCE.

SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A
LOW POP LINGERING IN NE OHIO/NW PA. JUST AS THE INITIAL LOW IS
PULLING AWAY...A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING SO INLAND AREAS COULD STILL
REACH 60 DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OFF THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT HEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SO LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF BLOCKING WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WOBBLES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A 12 TO 16 DEGREE
DIURNAL RANGE. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES RANGING FROM LOWS IN THE 40S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME
THE PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW AT KERI AND POSSIBLY AT KCLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME
GUSTY OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTIONED A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE TOLEDO AREA.
OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE IT WILL DROP BELOW 8000 FEET.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. WAVES MAY
BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY THIS EVENING....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
SINCE THERE WILL BE A LONG FETCH INTO THE WESTERN BASIN LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WAVE HEIGHTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT BUT THEN
NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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