Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 302020
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
420 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Illinois will track across northern Ohio on
Friday. A warm front will push northeast ahead of the low this
evening with the front occluding over the area later tonight.
The low will move east of the area by Friday night. High
pressure from the upper midwest will move overhead by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
An upper level low is located over Missouri with surface low
pressure over Illinois. A warm front extends from the low
eastward into central Ohio. This low will continue to lift north
this evening. A Tornado Watch has been issued upstream across
Central Indiana and west central Ohio. A portion of our southwestern
counties remains in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this
evening as this warm front approaches the area. Surface based
CAPE of around 1000 J/kg has developed across Southern Indiana
this afternoon while our area remains north of the warm sector
with only a few hundred joules of elevated instability in place
across our forecast area. The severe weather threat this
evening remains difficult to determine as the easterly flow
north of the warm front holds firm with temperatures across
northern Ohio in the 40s. Other limiting factors include fairly
warm mid-levels with the ridge aloft and the warm front
approaching the area just prior to sunset.

Mini-supercells will likely develop along the warm front this
evening with the main window for severe weather from 6 to 10
PM. A strong 120 knot upper level jet is moving out of the
upper level trough across Indiana and northwest Ohio this
evening. Shear both in the low levels and aloft will be more
than sufficient for organized storms. The primary threats with
storms this evening will be wind/hail with an isolated tornado
threat along the warm front where surface winds are strongly
backed. Widespread rain will fill in overnight with the system
occluding and pushing eastward overnight. A hail threat may
persist longer into the overnight hours as low levels stabilize
by late evening and the other threats decrease.

Portions of northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania have seen .4
to .75 inch of rain so far today. Additional rainfall overnight
through Friday morning of around an inch is expected. This will
result in rises on area rivers and a few could reach minor flood
stage. Will need to monitor for training, especially with
thunderstorms overnight into Friday morning and could need a Flood
Advisory or Warning for heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The low pulls away to the east by Friday night showers will linger
across the eastern half of the area into the evening with ample
moisture wrapping around the back side of the system. As low
level flow shifts around to the north much cooler air will be pulled
south across the area. Showers should finally diminish by Saturday
morning with clouds trying to scatter out from the northwest late.
With the flow on the lake, highs on Saturday will range from the mid
40s to near 50 unless we clear out sooner. High pressure will build
southeast across the area on Sunday with mid cloud already on
the increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Alternating ridge and trough cycle will continue through this
forecast period. Upper level trough moves into the local area Monday
with a resultant surface low pressure that will move northeast
through the Ohio Valley region.  This feature will bring more mild
temperatures and another round of showers to the area. As the low
passes by the area Tuesday, some weak cold air advection will take
place as weak ridge of high pressure builds southeast into the area.
Fast moving ridge moves east over the area as well. This will bring
fair weather to the region but will be short lived for Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday.  Then, yet another deep digging upper
level low pressure system and associated trough will move east
across the area with another resultant surface low pressure system.
Once again, this system will spread more rain into the area Thursday
into Friday.  Only difference, is the upper level feature packs a
little more punch allowing cooler air to pump down into the area and
could bring some light snow by the end of the week.  In the mean
time, mild temperatures will continue through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Low pressure will continue to move east across the area Friday.
The storm system set up a stationary front across the northern
portions of the area with the true warm front well south of the
area. Some thunderstorm activity developed south of the
stationary front and will continue to do so as the low moves
through the area. Will keep thunderstorms mainly south and east
across the area overnight transitioning to lowering LIFR to IFR
ceilings by morning. On and off again showers will persist
across the area overnight and then some drizzle tomorrow morning
lowering visibilities.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continuing into Friday night. Non-VFR
possible Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory will need to be extended until 2 AM in the
morning as winds appear they will stay up until then.  Low pressure
is progged to move northeast into the area Friday and push the
lighter gradient north over the lake late tonight.  Winds diminish
as the low passes by but increase again Friday night.  May need
another small craft advisory again Friday night into Saturday
morning.  At that time, winds diminish to light northwest Saturday
afternoon and then variable Saturday night through Sunday night.
Northeast flow will develop again Monday night into Tuesday but
should remain below small craft advisory criteria. Light and
variable winds prevail Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of
the next system when winds increase out of the southeast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142-143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy


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