Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 272019
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
THEN OVER THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVING NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.  I
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
AFTER 06Z THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AFTER 06Z IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS COULD FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.  I EXPECT LITTLE OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND EVENTUALLY DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY 12Z.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST.  VERY DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.  A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND I SEE NO REASON TO
REMOVE IT AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DROP TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELT AREAS ONLY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
BY FRIDAY A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STATES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS SNOW OR MIXED...AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE TO RAIN ON SATURDAY....HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TAPERING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MORNING.
I ANTICIPATE THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY MVFR TURNING TO
POSSIBLY TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
SOME WESTERN OHIO TAF SITES ARE ALREADY MVFR WITH MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS READY TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OF OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.

WINDS SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND 09Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXITING SUNDAY. NON-VFR MAINLY OVER NE OH/NW
PA MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY MORE NON-VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY NON-VFR POSSIBLE JUST ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT RESULTING IN HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES STRONG ENOUGH FOR US TO POST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC





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