Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 280704
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
304 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Low pressure will track east across the northern Great Lakes into
Ontario today dragging a cold front across the region. The front
will stall across Southern Ohio on Monday. High pressure will
build across the lower Great Lakes from the north on Monday and
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Will continue with chance pops for thunderstorms today...mainly
this afternoon. Low pressure moving east across the northern lakes
will drag a cold front across the region late this afternoon/early
evening. Only weak forcing across the area with the upper ridge
axis just to our south over the lower Ohio Valley but with the
airmass continuing very moist with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
near 70...main concern is for the development of convection along
and ahead of the front. Highs mid and upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight expect a few ongoing thunderstorms at 00z but high
pressure and dry air will build in after 06z from the north. Will
have chance pops mainly east half to start but will tapper through
the evening. Monday and monday night will be dry as high pressure
overspreads the area. Wednesday should be dry for most as well
however models bring another cold front across the area during the
day. The GFS is drier than the NAM and for its own part than NAM
is not all that moist either. For now will just have slight chance
pops in place for the day which will not make it into the zones.
Wednesday night 850mb temps drop to around 6c on the GFS over
NERN Ohio and NWRN PA. This would be low enough to spark lake
effect showers but the fetch will be short as winds will be from
the north. Also the airmass dries significantly by then. For now
will have a slight chance pop far northeast...otherwise dry. Temps
a few degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday and near normal
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be spreading se over the area thu into fri then
slowly shifting off to the east sat. Dry and cooler air is shown
over the region thru the period so expect conditions to stay dry
allowing the drought affecting much of the area to worsen.
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Temp and dewpoint spread low around most of the area. With light
winds and partly cloudy skies on average expect fog and stratus to
develop at most locations. Some spots...mainly the inland sites
could see ifr conditions for a while toward the end of the night
into the first hour or two of daylight. Daytime heating sunday will
dissipate the fog and stratus.
A few isolated shra/tsra could develop into early daylight but the
threat is too low to mention. Sct tsra will be developing late sun
morning and afternoon as a weak frontal boundary/trough axis moves
se across the region. This will shift southwesterly winds to the
northwest during the afternoon. Winds should turn quick enough at
cle and eri due to lake breeze enhancement so tsra development
should be further to the south of these sites.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR ceilings and visibility possible Sunday night
into Monday morning.
A weak cold front drifting se across the lake today will mean little
more than a wind shift from sw to nw that veers to ne tonight with
an increase in speed to about 10 to 15 knots. Winds diminish again
for mon night and remain light and changeable until wed morning when
a more pronounced cold front pushes se across the lake. Winds will
increase from the nw then north to 10 to 20 knots wed into wed night
which look to create 2 to 4 foot waves for a while until winds start
to diminish late thu night.