Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 302353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
INTO PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD OVER NW
LAKE ERIE SO LEFT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FOG AND
STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME DRIZZLE HAS BEEN SHOWING UP
ON THE RADAR IN SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
DEPTH...CHANGED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TONIGHT TO A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN-OVC VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO
THE EAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
STRATUS LOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN LOWER CEILINGS. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW IFR
AND VISIBILITIES OF 3/4 TO 1/2 MILES BETWEEN 09-13Z. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS





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