Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
820 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FROM IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADD SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EXTREME
NORTH FOR THE MORNING. ONCE MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN ALOFT THIS THREAT
WILL END.

AT 6 AM THE FRONT WAS JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE
LAKESHORE. THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER INCREASES
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. REFINED THE HOURLY
POP/WEATHER GRAPHICS FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WILL OCCUR
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. USED THE
NAM12 RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE BASIS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPS TODAY
BUT DID SLOW THE FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP.

A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES STILL SHOWING UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK OR SO AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LET THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OH/NW PA EXPIRE AT 4 AM AS SCHEDULED. WILL
IGNORE THE RAIN THREAT AS IT SHOULD PASS QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO 10 AM. WILL START THE
ADVISORY AT CANTON AT 1 PM AND INCLUDE MAHONING COUNTY. THE BETTER
SNOW GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT NEAR MAHONING COUNTY WITH PERHAPS 4-5
INCHES NEAR COLUMBIANA COUNTY AND ONLY 2-3 INCHES TOTAL NORTH BY
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL NOT START IN
EARNEST UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER NW OH AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST. THE NORTHERN EXTEND IS TOUGH. ERIE MAY GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS AM AND THEN NOT MUCH SNOW...CLE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MODERATE TO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS FDY...MFD AND
CAK. NONE THE LESS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...JAMISON






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