Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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825
FXUS61 KCLE 121748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1248 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TOWARD EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
WILL MOVE TO OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ORIGINAL...NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE MOMENT AS MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER LAKE ERIE AND IS HEADING UP TOWARD
BUF`S AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG
THE EASTERN LAKESHORE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME FLURRIES OR
BURSTS OF SNOW UP TOWARD ERIE AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPS ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY AND THIS FORECASTER SAW MINUS 11 ON
THE WAY IN SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE GETTING OFF TO A VERY COLD
START. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT AN
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THIS SNOW
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EVEN IN THE WEST. EXPECTING A
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT`S GOING TO FEEL LIKE LAST FEBRUARY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AS VERY COLD AIR DESCENDS ON THE
REGION. WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT WITH A LAKE HURON FETCH ALSO POSSIBLY GETTING SET
UP. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AS WE
ALWAYS SEEM TO FOCUS MORE ON INSTABILITY THAN MOISTURE. ONE THING
IS FOR SURE...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT ON SATURDAY
SO SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT WILL REALLY DICTATE HOW WELL THIS EVENT
PANS OUT. RESIDENCE TIMES WILL ALSO BE SHORT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG
NW FLOW. HOWEVER...THE FETCH WILL BE IDEAL FOR TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
THE TOPOGRAPHY AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A
WARNING. HAVE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND PUT UP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN
THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING AS WELL. ON SATURDAY THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION WILL BE ON THE GROUND SO DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW GROWTH TO
BE VERY EFFICIENT AND THUS ACCUMS SHOULDN`T BE AS GREAT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD END SATURDAY EVENING.

FRIGID TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH SUBZERO LOWS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORDS
AT A COUPLE SITES ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY ITSELF SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHER
WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT`S
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE AREA WILL SEE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN ALL
AREAS.

HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  BOTH MODELS NOT TRACK THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW
WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AS STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO
PRECISE TRACK. BOTH MODELS TRACK THE LOW INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKES. MODELS MOVE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA 21Z-00Z. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING
THE FRONT BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT WHERE THE SNOW BANDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT ANY GIVEN HOUR. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR TYPE
SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT BE AT KERI AND KYNG BUT KCLE AND KCAK ARE
POSSIBILITIES AS WE GO INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO NW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN A BIT BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO BUT REMAIN GUSTY ELSEWHERE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE SNOWBELT OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS NOT TRACK THE LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AS STILL SOME
DOUBT AS TO PRECISE TRACK. BOTH MODELS TRACK THE LOW INTO QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKES. MODELS MOVE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT
DOES SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH TRACKS SLOWLY EAST AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
     EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB



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