Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 260130
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
930 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over eastern OH will move off to the ne thru Fri to
allow a weak ridge of high pressure to push across the region Friday
then weaken Saturday. Low pressure will develop over the Great Lakes
Sunday and hang around the eastern part of the lakes through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Little change in the overall pattern the last few hours as band
of showers continues to rotate slowly east. Will keep a chance
of showers all areas with the least being in the west and
greatest in the central portions of the forecast area where the
band persists. Surface low pressure appears to be developing
along the DELMARVA coast at this time with another center of
circulation over western Pennsylvania. The coastal low pressure
system will gradually take over during the night. This should
help pull some of the precipitation away from the area. As
mentioned earlier, temperatures are not moving much through the
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As energy from the upper low continues to shift off to the east the
lingering rain in the east should taper off Fri to provide a brief
period of dry conditions going into early Fri night.

The models continue to differ on how well convection from a
developing system to the west will hold together and spread across
the cwa Fri night into Sat morning. Will raise forecast pops more
but not to MAV guidance levels.

As the next upper low digs se into the lakes Sat night and Sun, it
will provide forcing for the next round of shra and possible tsra to
spread ene across the cwa Sat night and Sun. The threat for flooding
will continue to slowly increase as rounds of rain occur.

Temps should be near normal Sat and Sun but cloud coverage should be
considerable making it feel cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Series of short waves progged to rotate through the deepening trough
the first half of next week. It may be difficult to pin down
specific details very far in advance. The cold front should be east
of the area Monday and I suspect there may be enough subsidence to
keep new shower development in check. Will have a small chance (20-
35 pop) for showers.

The next short wave and surface trough/front should rotate across
the area on Tuesday. Weak high pressure is progged to build across
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday but with the trough aloft, will keep a
chance of showers in the forecast. High pressure should be more
established by Thursday.

Temperatures should drop through the first half of the week as weak
cold advection persists. 850 mb temperatures will start out about
+10C Monday and be down to about +5C by Wednesday. Forecast
temperatures will be near normal Monday then below normal Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR/MVFR conditions across nrn OH and nwrn PA this evening with
low pressure exiting the area to the east. Light rain continues
to fall across the central counties this evening and should
rotate southeast and out of the area through the overnight.
Expect conditions to drop to MVFR/IFR overnight then lift
eventually to VFR Friday from west to east as drier air and high
pressure build in.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR likely at times over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will slowly move east of Lake Erie tonight and winds
will come around from the west northwest tonight, then back to the
southwest on Friday. The lake will get a bit choppy on the east half
but will likely remain below small craft advisory criteria on
Friday.

Weak low pressure will cross the lower Great Lakes on Saturday with
rather light winds but the direction will back around the dial. A
stronger cold front will cross the lake on Sunday and mariners will
have to watch for stronger thunderstorms. Winds should come around
from the west southwest behind the front Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Kosarik



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