Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011411
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1011 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. A
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN MOST AREAS AND REMOVED THE MENTION
OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A LARGE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS IS NOTED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. ALTHOUGH
EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AREAS...HELPING TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS IN THE FAR NORTH
A FEW DEGREES AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR WARMING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND WINDS SHIFT OFF LAKE ERIE. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO IOWA SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. RAISED POPS TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

ORIGINAL...FOLLOWED THE SREF/HRRR COMBO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS BECOMING MORE PATCHY AS
THE BEST OVERRUNNING SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL BEGIN WITH
CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAINLY SOUTH WITH CAPES
1000-1200J/KG ON BUFKIT NAM12 SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE INVOF
THE COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY KGKJ TO KYNG TO KMFD/KMNN. HIGHS FROM
THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE SREF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD BEGIN WITH PRECIP PULLING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WILL BEGIN
WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL EXTREME NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT RAIN CHANCE
COMES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. MODELS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY
SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TOWARDS
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BOOST TO LIKELY AND CONTINUE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A WINTER PATTERN RATHER
THAN A SPRING PATTERN.  MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BACK WEST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. EVENTUALLY BY SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PULL OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND A RETURN BACK TO THE 70S AND UPPER
60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL KEEP STRATUS DECK AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA NOW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE
AREA AND LOWERING CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LONGER ACROSS NE OH/NW
PA. PERIODS OF NON VFR AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE THIS MORNING DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY AS WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY


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