Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290554
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH
MEANS LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE WEST SO FORECAST LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING EAST OF CLEVELAND TO AROUND ERIE. THIS
AREA WILL SEE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. JUST
NOT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER TO KEY ON FOR DEVELOPMENT. WE
WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT ON OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EXTREME NE OHIO FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
HILLS OR ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CAN MATERIALIZE. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS


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