Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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257
FXUS64 KCRP 302002
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... MAIN ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. VIS SATELLITE REVEALS A SHARP SFC BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE
CU DRAPED FROM ROBSTOWN TO VICTORIA...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NW.
BEST INSTABILITY AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OVER VICTORIA
WHERE SEVERAL WEAK CELLSHAVE FORMED AND DISSIPATED IN THE PAST
HOUR. LAPS SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO
BEING MET WITH CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHYFOG AND STRATUS TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVES INTO
S TX FROM NE MEXICO. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN CHC POPS SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN CWA. THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN THE HAZY CONDITONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FROPA MONDAY.

COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DUE
TO A WEAKING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...TIDES STILL PEAKED ABOUT 1 1/4
FT ABOVE NORMAL AROUND NOON TODAY (2.25FT MSL) ON THE GULF SIDE
NEAR PORT ARANSAS. TIDES ARE SIMILARLY HIGH ON THE INLAND BAY
SIDE...AND WILL BE SLOW TO FALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP POOLING OF
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD WILL AID IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN COLD SECTOR BEHIND FRONT...AND
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH OMEGA PATTERN
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK.  A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY MODIFY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  87  73  81  65  /  10  30  40  60  40
VICTORIA          72  85  69  77  61  /  10  30  50  60  40
LAREDO            74  94  72  79  64  /  10  20  40  60  20
ALICE             74  89  72  80  62  /  10  30  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          76  87  73  79  66  /  10  30  50  60  40
COTULLA           72  89  67  75  62  /  10  20  50  50  20
KINGSVILLE        75  88  74  81  64  /  10  20  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  85  75  80  67  /  10  20  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM



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