Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231141
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
641 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 12z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Predominate VFR conditions expected during the TAF period. Expect
non-convective LLWS, generally east of U.S. 281, to end by 15z.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms may occur over the extreme NE CWA
Today. Light sfc wind areawide early this morning becoming
moderate/breezy onshore by afternoon. Expect light wind again
during the 06-12z Monday period, and non-convective LLWS again
09-12z Monday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 637 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic generally consistent with a weakness
in the upper height field during the period. NAM deterministic
predict a gradual decrease in PWAT values during the period.
Expect isolated convection to be restricted to the extreme NE CWA
and over the MSA Today. Expect moisture to be insufficient for
significant convection Monday. Expect maximum Heat Index values
today in the 105-109F range and thus issued the corresponding
SPS. Moderate risk of rip currents continue. SCA conditions remain
over the SRN Bays/Nearshore Coastal Waters and should continue
until 15z Today (NAM deterministic predicts a decrease in wind
aloft.) Expect SCA conditions to return to the SRN Bays/Nearshore
Waters after 21z owing to stronger anticipated MSLP gradient.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

Mid level low is progged to be west of the area with the axis draped
across W TX and Mex Mon night/Tue. The deep S to SE flow will usher
moisture back across S TX Mon night through Tue with PWAT`s
increasing to around 2 inches. Weak capping inversion will hinder
convective development, but should still see iso/sct shra/tsra`s,
especially during the morning across the coastal counties and
coastal waters where low level moisture convergence will be
strongest. Models continue to show Wed being more active, but cap is
progged to be a tad stronger and PWAT`s a tad lower. Also, the 250mb
flow is progged to be confluent along with NVA. Kept 20 pops inland
and 30 along the coast and coastal waters for Wed for now, but this
may be lowered with later forecast packages if scenario remains the
same. Kept a dry forecast Thu-Sat as moisture is progged to be less
along with a moderate cap. The superblend output had pockets of
higher pops, but confidence is too low to mention precip at this
time for later in the week. Highs are expected to be a tad cooler
Tue/Wed due to the increased moisture then warming once again the
latter part of the week. Afternoon heat indices will generally be
105 to 109 with occasionally some locations reaching around 110 at
times. A weak to moderate...at times mod in the afternoons...onshore
flow is expected through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  95  78  96  /  10  10  10  10  30
Victoria          96  77  97  77  96  /  20  10  10  10  20
Laredo           103  78 102  79 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice            100  76 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  20
Rockport          92  82  92  83  92  /  10  10  10  10  30
Cotulla          102  76 102  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        98  77  97  78  97  /  10  10  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  84  92  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas out 20 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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