Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 221615 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1015 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR CLOUD COVER...SINCE IT IS TAKING SOME
TIME FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OUT OF THE AREA. CRP MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
LEVEL SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...AM GOING TO HOLD OFF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON (UPDATED THEM EARLIER). KCRP
SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH 80F AND
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE DECK THE POTENTIAL IS
STILL THERE TO REACH THESE. WILL MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG IS LIFT RATHER RAPIDLY...SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
DITTO FOR THE BAYS...AS NEARBY OBS AND ANY AVAILABLE WEBCAMS SHOW
THAT THE FOG IS LIFTING THERE AS WELL. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AOA
8 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING ALL FOUR SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN
IS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG OVER THE
AREA. NUMEROUS SITES ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG ARE EAST OF A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BEEVILLE
TO KINGSVILLE. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
ELEVATED FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
THE S TO SSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...
WITH MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY WENT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE TO STRONG CAA
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FROPA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A 1020+ MB
HIGH SETTLES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PLETHORA OF SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS PWATS FALL TO LESS THAN .40
INCHES...BUT EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HAVE LOWERED INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED COLD
AIR DRAINAGE WIND FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS/. A
FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT ATTM THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL BE IF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW OF LLVL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS FOR
MAX TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS...SO I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND THE
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FEW TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
AT THIS TIME GIVEN MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAIN AT AT
LEAST MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
/AS AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  64  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  60  61  41  56  /  10  10  20  10   0
LAREDO            82  56  65  44  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
ALICE             81  59  65  45  58  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  63  64  48  58  /  10  10  20  10  10
COTULLA           81  50  64  40  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        80  60  66  44  59  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  65  49  59  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.