Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 181032
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
432 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

The deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM predict a transition from a
quasi-zonal upper pattern this morning to a meridional one with an
upper level disturbance developing/moving EWD over the WRN CONUS
tonight/Monday. The MSAS continues to depict a quasi-stationary
boundary across the CWA this morning. Expect this boundary to
combine with sufficient moisture (near/above normal PWAT values
per NAM deterministic) to generate isolated showers/patchy light
rain today. In response to the upper pattern, increasing onshore
flow expected tonight/Monday and expect the frontal boundary to
dissipate/move north. Despite the lack of upper/surface forcing
over the CWA Monday, the GFS deterministic predicts isentropic
lift/low condensation pressure deficits. Anticipate isolated
showers/patchy light rain Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Today through Monday)...

Anticipate that areas of dense fog will occur over the bays and
nearshore coastal waters this morning. SST values have risen
somewhat per buoy observations. Although anticipate SREF
probabilities fall significantly during the afternoon. Owing to
increasing uncertainty, did not extend the marine dense fog
advisory beyond 18z Today. Increasing onshore flow tonight and
Monday with at least SCEC conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...

A deepening upper level low/trough will be digging into the Rockies
at the start of the period.  Persistent onshore flow at the surface
will continue to bring higher moisture into the region, and
precipitable water values will climb to 1.5 to 1.7 inches by
Tuesday/Wednesday.  A series of perturbations in the southwest flow
aloft combined with this ample moisture will lead to increasing
chances for showers and Monday night into Tuesday night.  As the
upper level low swings east into the Central Plains during the mid
week a cold front will move south towards the region.  Still seeing
discrepancies in the timing of fropa as the GFS continues pushing
the front through more swiftly and stronger than the ECMWF.   Have
continued with a blend with regard to timing of front for the time,
brining the front down late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night.  As the front moves south rain chances will increase more so
across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Chances for rain
will continue Thursday as an overrunning pattern develops. A warm
front will lift north on Friday, with a slight chance for rain
continuing into the end of the week.

Temperatures early in the period remain well above normal with highs
on Tuesday still in the mid 80s out west to mid 70s near the coast.
Wednesday will be cooler with expected rain and cloud cover before
the front moves south.  Cooler airmass in wake of the front will
keep highs on Thursday down in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  A
warming trend will then develop late in the week with the return of
onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  65  80  67  79  /  20  10  20  10  50
Victoria          76  64  79  66  77  /  20  10  20  20  50
Laredo            84  67  87  68  86  /  20  10  20  20  40
Alice             82  65  85  67  82  /  20  10  20  10  50
Rockport          72  65  73  66  75  /  20  10  20  10  50
Cotulla           82  65  86  67  83  /  20  10  20  30  50
Kingsville        81  66  84  68  82  /  20  10  20  10  50
Navy Corpus       73  66  74  66  76  /  20  10  20  10  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today For the following zones:
     Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays
     and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...Coastal
     waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal
     waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
LB/84...LONG TERM


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