Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 302000
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT VALUES INDICATE NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTAL
BEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES. DESPITE THESE MOISTURE
LEVELS HAVE NOT YET HAD ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. JUST IN THE PAST
30 MINUTES OR SO HAVE STARTED SEEING SOME SHOWERS NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHEASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...FEELING A BIT
PESSIMISTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GFS WELL
OVERDONE ON FORECAST QPF FOR TODAY...LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THAT
MODEL FOR THE PERIOD. THINK THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS ARE JUST
GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO REALLY OVERCOME. HAVE
NOT...HOWEVER...MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRECIP
FORECAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS...THUS THINK A MAINLY 20 POP
IS WARRANTED. HAVE KEPT THE GOING 30S FOR FRIDAY IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...AS OTHER MODELS DO GET INTO THE GAME WITH SOME INDICATED
QPF. GOING A BIT WARMER FOR TOMORROW THAN WOULD HAVE THOUGHT...AS
THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AIR DIDNT HOLD TOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO
EXPECT WILL BE NEAR THESE SAME VALUES TOMORROW. DID GO A DEGREE OR
SO COOLER THAN TODAY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOG IS A QUESTION FOR TONIGHT...THINK FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE
MOISTURE PROFILE SHOULD BE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG...WITH A MUCH
DEEPER ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVEL THAN LAST NIGHT. IF THERE IS
FOG...THINK IT WOULD BE FOR MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A WK MID-LVL SHEAR AXIS WL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WL REMAIN BOTTLED UP WITH THIS FEATURE AND WL BE
HARD PRESSED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT IN-ROADS ACROSS OUR CWA.  WITH THAT
SAID...BLV THERE WL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THE PRIMARY AID OF THE SEABREEZE...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...THE CWA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THE SHEAR AXIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS.  AN
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH ALMOST NIL CHANCES OF RAIN GIVEN THE DRY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS.  OVERALL...TEMPS WL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THIS
SYNOPTIC SETUP AND DRIER SOILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  96  76  97  76  /  10  20  20  20  10
VICTORIA          74  97  75 100  74  /  20  30  20  20  10
LAREDO            77 102  78 101  79  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             73  98  75 100  75  /  10  20  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          77  93  78  93  79  /  20  20  20  20  10
COTULLA           74 102  76 102  78  /  10  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        74  97  75  98  75  /  10  20  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  92  78  91  79  /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM



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