Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 241133
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
533 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 12Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Today...VFR. Light southerly winds, southeasterly closer to the
coast, expected by the afternoon hours under clear skies. High
confidence.

Tonight...Mostly VFR. Patchy fog is possible around KALI/KVCT
after midnight. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds expected.
High confidence overall.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

After a cold start this morning, temperatures will quickly rebound
under sunny skies, light southerly winds, and a very dry airmass.
PWATs will continue to run well below late November averages, even
as we add some low-level moisture into the mix throughout the next
36 hours. Temperatures today will be a few degrees above average.

Clear skies and light winds, though not calm like this morning, will
allow good radiational cooling conditions to develop again.
Dewpoints will be slightly warmer than this morning so expecting
overnight lows to be around 10 degrees warmer. Could see some patchy
ground fog develop late tonight across the Victoria Crossroads
region back through parts of the Coastal Plains.

Warm air advection in the low-levels and a somewhat stronger onshore
flow will boast Saturday`s high temperatures nearly 10-15 degrees
above average.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

Saturday night into Sunday winds will briefly back to the northeast
as a weak boundary and surface high pressure slides south into the
region. High temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday. Onshore
flow, however, will return Sunday night into Monday.  Upper level
ridging will shift over the region on Monday, with an upper level
disturbance moving into the Four Corners region on Tuesday. Models
begin diverging on forecast solutions during the mid to late week.
The GFS remains more aggressive, moving this disturbance across the
Southern/Central Plains on Wednesday and pushing an associated cold
front into South Texas Wednesday.  The ECMWF keeps this initial
front to the north of the region during the mid week. However, both
models indicate a deep longwave trough moving across the region late
next week, potentially bringing a stronger cold front through the
region. At this time will maintain a slight chance for showers
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the potential fropa, though
confidence remains lower.  After a gradual warming trend Monday and
Tuesday, anticipate slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  52  84  59  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
Victoria          76  49  82  53  77  /   0   0   0   0  10
Laredo            78  49  83  57  77  /   0   0   0   0  10
Alice             80  49  85  56  80  /   0   0   0   0  10
Rockport          72  61  78  61  77  /   0   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           79  44  82  54  77  /   0   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        80  51  86  58  80  /   0   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       74  62  81  64  78  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION



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