Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 282108
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
408 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
As a deep upper level low approaches the region, a dryline is
expected to push into the western CWA tonight. Convection may
begin to affect the NW CWA after 10 pm, but not expecting any
significant precip until after midnight. As the dryline moves
east, moisture is progged to deepen across the eastern CWA with
PWAT`s of 1.5-1.6 inches. The atmosphere is progged to be unstable
with ample shear, however CIN values/capping inversion will also
be high overnight. Kept the higher pops across the northern CWA
where the cap is weaker and upper dynamics are better. There
appears to be a brief window after 09Z (closer to 12Z) through
15Z where the atmosphere will be most conducive for convection to
develop. The CAPE is mod to strong and CIN/cap decreases across
the eastern CWA coincident with the dryline bdry and an embedded
short wave tracking around the SE periphery of the low. The better
chc of strong to isol svr wx is expected during this time frame
across the NE CWA. Generally, the CWA is expected be at the tail
end of the storm system. As the short wave tracks NE, the
convection will also exit to the east and northeast by mid to late
morning. Models prog drier mid/upper levels as
dryslotting/subsidence overtakes the area through Wed afternoon.
The dryline is progged to stall along the coast Wed afternoon then
retreat west slightly as the sea breeze pushes inland. Wed night,
the upper low will move east across TX and push a weak cold front
through the CWA. Residual low level moisture may be sufficient
for isol (sct over the waters) convection across the east ahead
of and along the frontal bdry Wed night. The cold front will bring
slightly cooler temps to the area Wed night.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Drier conditions develop behind the exiting front Thursday. Low
afternoon Relative Humidity values will be in place Thursday/Friday
however winds should remain below fire weather criteria. Moisture
gradually returns on Saturday ahead of the next approaching upper
disturbance. The cap continues to remain strong on Saturday. As a
result, have removed Saturday 20 POPs for now due to the cap,
although a few isolated streamer showers may be possible in the
morning hours under the cap. It is not until Saturday night, more so
into Sunday, that POPs will increase as the next disturbance digs
down through Texas. With slightly more energy and a slightly farther
dip south, chances for rain remain rather high, with likely POPs
draped across the northern zones from Cotulla to Victoria. Model
soundings show profiles developing steep lapse rates aloft which may
contribute to strong activity. Things may change between now and the
weekend but this is the next shot of rain with the possibility of
strong weather. Temperatures will remain rather warm thru the
period, with temperatures even reaching into the low to mid 90s
across the Brush Country Thursday thru Saturday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 72 88 62 82 62 / 20 40 20 10 0
Victoria 71 85 59 79 56 / 40 70 20 10 0
Laredo 68 93 58 85 62 / 30 10 10 0 0
Alice 71 90 60 84 59 / 20 30 20 10 0
Rockport 72 81 65 80 67 / 20 50 20 10 0
Cotulla 65 91 57 84 59 / 50 10 10 0 0
Kingsville 72 91 61 84 59 / 20 30 20 10 0
Navy Corpus 73 82 66 80 67 / 20 40 20 10 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM.