Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 092347 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
647 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR AREAS NEAR LRD. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AS
STABILITY IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE
GENERAL VFR WITH WINDS DECOUPLING THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
STRATUS COVERAGE LATE AFTER 06Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED EARLY MORNING (09Z AND LATER) ALONG THE COAST NEAR
CRP...MOVING INLAND REACHING VCT-ALI-LRD 15Z-16Z. SHOULD SEE MORE
COVERAGE IN ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN TAFS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS THURSDAY...GUSTING TO 20-25KTS IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING IT TO DO MUCH...BUT CANT RULE OUT A STORM PULSING UP TO
BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY AROUND 00Z.
TOMORROW...TUTT LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO PUT US IN A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR PRECIP. ADDITIONALLY...500MB LOW TO
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE
STUCK WITH THE 30 POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATION. MODEL PWAT GETTING
CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING...PRESUMABLY AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHER PROGGED MOISTURE.
HAVE GONE A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WEST. HAVE ALSO
KEPT MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOULD
SEE PRECIP ENDING LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SREF 250MB HEIGHT MEAN
PATTERN DEPICT THE TUTT LOW MOVG WEST OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER ESPECIALLY THE ERN CWA/MSA
OR EVEN ENHANCE ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA DEPENDING ON EXACT
PSN. NEVERTHELESS...WL FCST ISOLD NOCTURAL/DIURNAL CONVECTION
FRIDAY. THE SREF (AND GFS DETERMINISTIC) INCREASE UPPER HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA IN CONNECTION WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE (E-W RIDGE AXIS
NORTH OF THE REGION) COMMENCING SAT. ANTICIPATE THAT LIMITED PWAT
VALUES/UPPER RIDGING WL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT LEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE LESS CERTAIN REGARDING THE PSN OF
ADDITIONAL TUTT LOWS/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...NOT
CONFIDENT IN DEVIATING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SAT-MON. THUS WL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST FOR THE ENTIRE SAT-WED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  78  93  76  /  20  30  10  20  10
VICTORIA          75  94  74  95  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  96  75  97  76  /  10  20  20  10  20
ALICE             75  96  75  97  74  /  10  30  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          80  92  80  87  79  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           74  96  75  99  74  /  10  20  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        76  95  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  92  80  87  80  /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




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