Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 250548
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL DELAY MVFR CIGS BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS...STILL EXPECTING MVFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BEFORE 18Z ALL TERMINALS...STARTING
FIRST AT KLRD THEN OTHER LOCATIONS (VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION).
SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...THINK STRONGEST OR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 26/00Z.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING SOME SUMMER-TYPE AND SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS MORNING (GOOD COASTAL CONVERGENCE) AND THIS
AFTERNOON... THE LATTER SINCE GOOD THETA-E AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND MID
EVENING...SO DID KEEP THUNDER IN FOR TERMINALS FOR THE EVENING BUT
DID END IT BY END OF TERMINAL FORECAST AT 26/06Z. HOWEVER...WILL
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 4KM MODELS AND NEW ECMWF ON THAT AND USE
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST (UNLESS THERE IS
A STRONG SUGGESTION ONE MODEL OR THE OTHER IS BETTER/WORSE THAN
ANOTHER).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. WINDS AT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 20KT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITHIN THE
HOUR. WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ARE CURRENTLY WEAK TO
MODERATE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF TSRA`S POPPED UP THIS EVENING JUST SW OF LRD AND
CURRENTLY CAN SEE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE WEST PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
INCREASING FROM THE S PER GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS S TX THIS EVENING BUT WILL KEEP A 20
POP FOR NOW DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT WET
PATTERN. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z AVIATION BRIEFING BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT
ALL S TX TERMINALS...THEN A MIX OF VFR/MVFR DRNG THE DAY MON.
CURRENT CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING BUT WITH SERLY LLJ OF 30 TO 35 KTS
DVLPNG...STRATUS FIELD SHOULD DVLP OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND
1500FT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND RISE MID/LATE MRNG MON
WITH A MIX OF UPPER END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS MON AFTN.
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM MID/LATE MRNG MON THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN
/CHANCES ENDING EARLY AFTN AT KLRD/ AS WX DISTURBANCE PUSHES THRU
AREA. HAVE TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR KVCT AND PROB30 FOR KCRP/KALI. MOST
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT IF
CONVECTION DOES DVLP/PUSH SOUTH ACROSS S TX THEN STRONG TO SVR
STORMS MAY OCCUR. SERLY SFC WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY DRNG THE DAY MON AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI WITH
LIGHTER CONDITIONS AT KLRD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  77  86  78  /  30  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  86  75  87  75  /  60  20  10  20  20
LAREDO            75  93  77  93  77  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             74  90  77  90  77  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  84  79  85  79  /  40  20  10  20  20
COTULLA           73  91  75  91  75  /  20  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        75  89  77  89  78  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  84  79  84  79  /  40  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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