Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 220943
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
443 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Coastal showers and storms early this morning have been streaming
onshore producing moderate to at times heavy rainfall over the
southern Coastal Bend, where sufficiently high moisture (PWATs
around 2.0 per GOES-16 imager) remains. The longwave trough will
remain over the Rockies, with the upper level ridge axis
stretching from the south central US to the the Great Lakes region
through the end of the week. Although drier air will be working
into the region, sufficient moisture will exist for typical
isolated to scattered sea breeze convection to develop across the
region today (but not as great of coverage as yesterday). Saturday
looks to bring another round of coastal showers and storms during
the early morning, with more limited sea breeze convection along
the coast in the afternoon.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler this afternoon as H85
temperatures drop a few degrees, though it will certainly not
feel close to actually cool for the first day of fall. Highs today
and tomorrow will reach the upper 80s along the immediate coast,
to mid 90s across the Brush Country. Drier air over the region
overnight will also help lows overnight drop a couple degrees, but
still stay in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Upper trough/closed low will be moving into the Four Corners Region
at the start of the extended with upper ridge over Great Lakes. This
will keep an easterly to east southeasterly flow across South Texas.
Moisture will remain sufficient enough for showers and thunderstorms
over the area during much of the long term. On Sunday, the sea
breeze will be the primary focus for showers and storms, and will
keep 20 to 30 pops in the forecast. On Monday, main upper trough
will slowly shift to the northeast with minor shortwave troughs
rounding the base of trough as PW climb to around 2 inches. Rain
chances on Monday will range from 20 out west to 40 percent over the
Victoria Crossroads. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then
improve Tuesday through Thursday. Upper trough will lift into the
Northern Plains Tuesday and Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will send
a cold front southward across the state during the Wednesday into
Thursday time frame. Moisture will pool ahead of this boundary
leading to continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. Pops will
generally range between 40 and 50 percent Tuesday through Thursday,
but kept pops below SuperBlend values for now. Chances for showers
and storms may need to be increased in later forecasts once trends
become more clear. Temperatures will be the warmest on Sunday and
Monday, but then cloud cover and rain chances will set highs back
closer to normal for the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  76  90  75  90  /  20  20  20  10  30
Victoria          89  73  91  72  90  /  30  20  20  10  30
Laredo            96  77  96  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             93  74  93  72  93  /  20  20  20  10  30
Rockport          90  80  90  78  89  /  30  20  20  20  30
Cotulla           96  76  96  75  95  /  10  10  10  10  20
Kingsville        93  76  92  74  93  /  20  20  20  10  30
Navy Corpus       90  80  89  79  89  /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LB/84...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM



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