Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251127
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
627 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through today. Southerly winds will strengthen
and become gusty by the mid morning, transitioning to a more
southeasterly flow this afternoon. Winds will gradually weaken
late this evening and overnight. MVFR cloud deck will develop and
spread over all terminals late tonight into early Friday morning.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Breezy to windy conditions will develop, especially across
coastal zones as surface low pressure deepens across
west/northwest Texas today. This surface onshore flow will usher
moisture back into the region today and tomorrow, with dewpoints
rising from the mid 50s/lower 60s early this morning back into the
mid to upper 70s across most areas by Friday. Upper level ridging
overhead will maintain a rain-free forecast through the short
term. Southwest low level flow will translate down to hot
conditions across the region. High temperatures today will hit the
upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains to mid to lower 90s to the
east. Tomorrow will be even warmer, reaching the triple digits
across the Rio Grande Plains/Brush country. Higher temperatures
and increased RH values across the region Friday may bring
conditions near heat advisory criteria.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Mid-level pattern looks rather unchanged for the long term period.
Split flow starts things off upstream allowing a flat ridge to
develop overhead. This helps to draw in copious amounts of total
column moisture with PWATs climbing to near 2", +2SD, by the end of
the weekend.

Heat and humidity will be on the increase in a big day
as heat index values approach advisory levels, 110 degrees, across
parts of the region. It will be rather windy on Saturday owing to a
deepening low pressure system across the Southern Plains. But even
the wind will not provide much relief from the heat and humidity so
stay hydrated, preferably with water.

Now heading into the new work week things become very unsettled
looking with cut-off low developing upstream and keeping zonal flow
overhead. The blocky pattern continues for several days with
multiple shortwaves traversing the region. Stalling frontal boundary
sets up just to the north of South Texas, or even bisecting our CWA
on Monday through Wednesday. With the high moisture content and not
much of a cap in place scattered to possibly numerous thunderstorms
are possible each day through the end of the period. The flow
throughout the column looks pretty weak so not thinking there will
be much storm movement which means the storms will have a chance to
drop moderate to heavy rainfall across the area. Not sounding the
alarms just yet in terms of flooding issues, but the pattern
suggests continued wetness, especially across the western areas
with better upslope flow and differential heating allowing
convection to drift eastward from the Madres.

Not really sure at this time when we completely dry out, if at all.
The pattern doesn`t really show much progression through the end of
the week so it`s entirely possible we will continue to see diurnally
driven convection beyond day-7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  77  92  79  93  /   0  10  10  10  10
Victoria          90  76  92  78  93  /   0  10  10  10  10
Laredo            99  77 102  79 102  /   0   0  10  10  10
Alice             95  76  98  78  98  /   0  10  10  10  10
Rockport          89  79  89  81  89  /   0  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           99  76 101  78 102  /   0   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        93  78  97  79  97  /   0  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       88  79  91  81  91  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Friday
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CDT Friday
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas.

&&

$$

LB/84...AVIATION



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