Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 231122
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
Update for 12Z aviation cycle.
Today - Tonight...VFR. Expecting less in the way of showers today
but could still see isolated sea-breeze driven rain. Again not
enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. East-
southeast winds with some gusts upwards the low-20s knots range
this afternoon before dropping off late evening. High confidence.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/
.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Isolated shower activity over the waters has commenced early this
morning and is slowly drifting north-northwest. A few of these
showers may make it to the islands around sunrise, otherwise we will
be waiting for the sea-breeze circulation to be the main driver of
any further isolated convection later this afternoon. Expecting much
the same in terms of sensible weather as we experienced yesterday
for today and Sunday. The ground is drying out, as some of our
locales are entering in drought conditions, with not much relief
expected in the short term. Heat index values once again are
expected to exceed 100 degrees everywhere with areas of 105 to 110
degrees closer to the Coastal Bend each afternoon.
LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Guidance continues to advertise a mid level inverted trough shifting
west rather fast early next week across the Northern Gulf of Mexico.
Height fields will lower as the trough approaches and deeper moisture
is prog to spread across much of the CWA /PWATs increasing to
greater than 2 inches/. Monday and Tuesday currently look to have
the best scattering of showers /especially Tuesday/ as the
aforementioned trough axis shifts west of the CWA and begins to
shear apart. Greatest areal coverage of precip is expected to be
across the eastern half of S TX...though chances will still exist
across the Brush Country. Have increased POPs significantly early
next week for the NE counties where height fields are prog to be the
lowest and moisture depth the greatest /PWATs around 2.25 inches/.
Deep layer moisture values are then prog to gradually lower for the
second half of next week with thermal profile aloft increasing
again. Thus...have lowered POPs for the second half of next week.
Continued hot and humid through the long term period...though
greater cloud cover and precip early in the week may limit max temps
by a few degrees across the Coastal Plains and especially Victoria
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 95 78 94 78 94 / 20 10 10 10 30
Victoria 99 76 96 75 97 / 20 10 20 10 50
Laredo 103 78 102 78 103 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 100 75 99 75 99 / 20 10 20 10 20
Rockport 93 81 92 80 93 / 20 10 10 10 30
Cotulla 103 77 103 77 103 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 98 76 96 75 98 / 20 10 20 10 20
Navy Corpus 92 81 90 80 93 / 20 10 10 10 30