Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 212045
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
345 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Surface high pressure will shift east tonight across Texas with
axis extending southward into the CWA. Result will be weakening
wind fields and strong radiational cooling. Only some passing
cirrus is expected tonight /if any/ with temps falling to below
seasonal levels. If winds become completely calm...then many
inland locations will fall into the 40s for min temps.
However...a light breeze may persist much of the night /especially
across the coastal counties and along the Rio Grande/ which may
limit maximum cooling potential. Surface high will continue
drifting east on Saturday with max temps warming into the low to
mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Low level moisture advection
will gradually increase Saturday Night with warmer min temps and a
few patches of cloud cover. Please see Coastal Flooding section
below for latest information on high tidal levels.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The upper level ridge will move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
while a short wave trough moves out of northeast Mexico into the
Hill Country Sunday night and Monday. Will lean toward the drier
ECMWF as GFS showing its bias with moisture quickly returning. ECMWF
shows the short wave trough over the Hill Country moving southeast
toward the area on Tuesday. May have adequate moisture by then to
include a slight chance of convection in the forecast for the
coastal plains and coastal waters Tuesday. A stronger short wave
trough over the plains Tuesday will move east-southeast and be
located from the Ozarks down to southeast Texas on Wednesday. Kept
slight chance PoPs over the eastern areas Wednesday. Upper level
ridge will build over the Rockies Thursday and move into the
southern/central plains on Friday. Above normal temperatures are
expected through the period with cloud cover providing slightly
lower high temperatures on Tuesday.
.COASTAL FLOODING...Tide levels have been running 1 to 1.5 feet
above predicted astronomical levels today. As coastal wind speeds
weaken and surge values across the W Gulf gradually
subside...think coastal flooding threat with high tide overnight
should decrease. However...any delay on decrease in surge values
will result in water running up to the dunes and have issued a
Coastal Flood Adv for tonight/s high tide cycle /for Nueces and
Kleberg Counties/. Greatest chance for water impacting the dunes
will be along Padre Island.
.MARINE...Wind speeds across area bays and the nearshore waters
have weakened...but remain strong across the offshore waters from
roughly 20 NM from shore and beyond. All marine areas can expected
a continued weakening in wind speeds tonight with seas subsiding
as a result. Improved boating conditions are expected for
Saturday...but open Gulf waters will still be a little rough.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 53 83 63 88 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
Victoria 47 82 57 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Laredo 55 85 64 88 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Alice 48 85 57 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Rockport 60 80 66 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cotulla 52 84 60 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
Kingsville 49 84 60 90 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
Navy Corpus 62 82 68 86 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday For the following
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the
following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.