Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER AIR
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
SEE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO RIDGE IS HOW TO SUM UP OUR
WEATHER. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO GIVING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IN ITS PLACE WE WILL
SEE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR SUNNY WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A WEAK TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO THE GFS MODEL INDICATED THAT THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS INCLUDING THIS MORNING`S RUN
HAVE BACKED OFF BOTH THE MOISTURE AND THE LIFT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

LATER ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IT
IS NOT A REAL STRONG PUSH AND NOT VERY COOL...BUT IT WILL KNOCK
OUR TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH AGAIN WILL CONTINUE OUR SUNNY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/00Z - 26/00Z...
GNLY SKC (FEW060 18Z-00Z). WINDS SW 7 KTS 18Z-00Z OTHERWISE NE-SE
5KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST AND GIVE WAY
TO DRY AN WARM WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES (DOWN
SOME 5 DEG F OR SO) BRIEFLY TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL RUN IN THE
25% TO 35% RANGE FRIDAY AND ABOUT 5% LOWER OVERALL SATURDAY ACROSS
THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  83  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  78  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  80  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  80  52  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  69  40  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             49  77  51  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  49  81  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               49  81  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  82  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               47  80  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  83  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              54  81  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  51  84  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  81  54  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  79  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           43  80  45  82  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   48  79  48  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  80  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 45  75  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  75  42  77  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  74  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 45  75  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  78  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               49  78  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            45  76  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  49  80  51  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   41  82  41  81  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              37  80  38  80  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 50  77  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  83  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  81  52  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  84  52  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              52  85  53  86  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN





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