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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290844
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
244 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SAG SOUTH ALLOWING THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN AND
VERY NEAR OR AT DAILY RECORD LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A BIT OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FOR THAT PERIOD. THAT
SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY AND DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND TO BRING BACK RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FLATTENING WITH A BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OPENING THE
AREA TO UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE W TOWARD THE E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT RECORDS. WINDS LOOK TO
SLACKEN TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS RELAX.

MONDAY`S ANTICIPATED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN
AND MODELS ARE DELAYING IT`S INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MOST OF
THE DAY APPEARS DRY WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS DO HAVE SOME DEW POINT CREEP...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY. THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DOES ALLOW IT
TO INGEST A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND THUS PW`S ARE AS HIGH AS 3/4"
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BEGIN PCPN CHANCES AFTER
18Z WEST AND MTN ZONES. BY 00Z THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OVER MOST AREAS. LI`S AND CAPES ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE AND COULD
BE CHARACTERIZED AS JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF NEUTRAL. THUS
STORMS LOOK WEAK AND QUITE ISOLATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. POPS WILL STAY IN THE ISOLATED RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE DURATION OF THUS SYSTEM`S PASSAGE. WILL ALLOW THE
POPS TO RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN WITH THE SLOWER TRACK AND THEN
PURGE THE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THUR THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A DEEP ZONAL FLOW WITH QUITE
DRY AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM FOR BOTH DAYS
WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE M-U 80S. DEEP MIXING...INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT...AND DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALL COMPLIMENT EACH
OTHER TO BRING WINDS UP INTO THE GUSTY AND NEAR WINDY RANGES BOTH
DAYS. STILL NOT A CLASSIC SPRING WIND EVENT...BUT SOME OF THE
STRONGEST PERSISTENT WINDS OF THE SEASON FOR THESE DAYS.

FRIDAY THE WINDS LOOK TO SHUT DOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA. THIS MODIFIED AIRMASS
WILL TURN WINDS EAST AND BRING MINOR COOLING TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL PART WAYS. THE GFS IS QUITE WET
WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN OVER THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS
QUITE DRY WITH A BROADER AND SHALLOWER WAVE MOVING IN AND A WEAKER
FRONT WASHING OUT. THE GFS LOOKS PRETTY RADICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE DRY OPTION FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z...
SAGGING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL
RESULT IN BACKING FLOW ALOFT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING
HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN ACROSS THE REGION. SKC-FEW250 EARLY TODAY
WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM W TO E AND BECOMING SCT-BKN250 AFT 21Z.
SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TODAY...AND MORE VARIABLE...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE DAILY RECORD. SKIES WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY. MONDAY A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY. DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A CONCERN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE
REGION. THIS CREATES BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOW RH AND THE BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR WED AND THU. AFTERNOONS
LOOK BREEZY BUT STILL NO MAJOR WIND/DUST EVENTS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 5% TO
15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  58  84  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           87  55  79  53  75 /   0   0   0  20  30
LAS CRUCES              85  58  82  51  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              83  53  81  49  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              64  43  59  41  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  54  79  51  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             76  51  73  47  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEMING                  85  53  84  50  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
LORDSBURG               84  50  82  48  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  61  84  58  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
DELL CITY               89  52  80  51  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  59  82  55  79 /   0   0   0  20  30
LOMA LINDA              81  55  78  53  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
FABENS                  88  59  83  56  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
SANTA TERESA            85  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  54  82  55  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           83  46  82  47  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
HATCH                   84  52  82  50  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                84  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               83  55  82  53  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
MAYHILL                 73  45  68  46  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
MESCALERO               72  43  68  42  67 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                72  45  69  44  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
WINSTON                 76  47  71  43  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               81  53  77  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               83  49  81  47  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  45  71  42  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
HURLEY                  79  50  76  47  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  46  78 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  41  78  39  77 /   0   0  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 79  52  76  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANIMAS                  84  54  81  52  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
HACHITA                 85  50  83  51  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  50  81  49  78 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              81  51  78  47  75 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




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