Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290931
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SETTING UP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF MOIST AIR FLOWING
OVER A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS GENERATED BY THE PREVIOUS
DAY`S CONVECTION. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THIS MORNING AS STORMS SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REFORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW
OVER THE STATE. IT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF AN AREA OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED MORE TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS
AT THIS TIME. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS MOIST FLOW ALONG
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE REGION WILL HELP
GENERATE NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH NUMEROUS
STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STRONGER
STORMS. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GILA
REGION. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE.

THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-CENTERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PLUME
WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST ALLOWING DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR INTO THE AREA...LIMITING AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR FUELING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A LOW LEVEL SOUTH EAST FLOW WHILE
SOMEWHAT STABLE...WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND DEW
POINTS UP. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH FEW IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS MOSTLY DRY PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT MEANS LOWER
TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT A MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATION GRADUALLY ENTRAINS MORE MOISTURE AND THAT MOISTURE
FLOWS BACK INTO THE AREA. MAINLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z...
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL HELP FORM SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF BRIEF PERIODS IFR AND MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR
STRONGER STORMS. P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU PD WITH SCT
1-3SM TSRA BKN040- 060 AFT 18Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS. W TO NW WINDS AOB 12KTS BECOMING MORE E TO SE AFT
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR FROM STRONGER STORMS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  74  97  73 /  20  40   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           93  69  94  68 /  10  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              94  68  94  67 /  30  40   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              93  67  95  65 /  30  40   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              71  51  73  50 /  60  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  68  92  67 /  40  50  20  10
SILVER CITY             85  63  84  62 /  50  60  30  30
DEMING                  94  69  94  68 /  40  50  10  10
LORDSBURG               94  68  93  66 /  40  50  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  73  96  72 /  20  40   0   0
DELL CITY               96  70  95  68 /  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            96  73  97  71 /  10  40   0   0
LOMA LINDA              92  69  93  69 /  20  30   0   0
FABENS                  96  73  97  70 /  20  40   0   0
SANTA TERESA            95  71  96  70 /  20  40   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  69  95  68 /  30  40   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           93  67  94  66 /  30  50   0  10
HATCH                   94  67  94  66 /  40  50   0  10
COLUMBUS                94  70  94  69 /  30  50   0   0
OROGRANDE               94  70  95  69 /  20  40   0   0
MAYHILL                 79  56  80  56 /  60  40  20  10
MESCALERO               81  55  81  55 /  60  40  30  20
TIMBERON                80  56  81  56 /  60  40  20  10
WINSTON                 83  60  83  59 /  60  70  50  40
HILLSBORO               91  64  91  63 /  40  50  20  20
SPACEPORT               92  67  92  66 /  40  50   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            85  58  84  57 /  70  70  50  30
HURLEY                  88  64  88  63 /  40  50  20  20
CLIFF                   90  62  89  61 /  50  60  40  30
MULE CREEK              90  60  89  59 /  50  60  50  40
FAYWOOD                 89  64  89  64 /  40  50  10  20
ANIMAS                  94  68  92  67 /  40  50  30  30
HACHITA                 94  68  92  67 /  40  50  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  66  89  65 /  40  60  20  20
CLOVERDALE              87  65  88  65 /  50  60  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN



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