Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261004
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
404 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will move through Northern New Mexico today with
continued dry weather and windy conditions expected for Southern
New Mexico and Far West Texas today. After the system exits the
region cooler temperatures and lighter winds will occur Friday.
Dry and warm conditions with lighter southwest winds will occur
through the Memorial Day holiday period and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system will track east across Northern
New Mexico and Colorado today. Precipitation associated with this
system will remain north of the local forecast area with dry
conditions expected to continue. Windy conditions are expected
with west winds of 20 to 30 mph possible. Patchy blowing dust will
also occur over dust prone areas of the southern lowland deserts
this afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today.

Friday will be a quieter weather day with a lingering weaker west
flow pattern filling behind the departing low pressure system over
the area. Skies will be clear and winds will only lightly breezy
in the afternoon with temperatures running a few degrees below
normal.

The Memorial Day weekend will be dry and clear with temperatures
warming back up to near or slightly above normal through Monday.
Models suggest that moisture may briefly reach eastern fringes of
the forecast area Saturday and Sunday for a slight chance of
rain, but chances remain very low with the bulk of the moisture
remaining east of the area. Winds will shift back around from the
southwest during the weekend. Wind speeds should stay in the light
breezy category or lower during the holiday period.

The forecast outlook for next week beyond the holiday period is
looking a little uncertain. Weather models have been variable run
to run on the type of weather pattern that may be setting up for
the middle of next week. The latest run keeps mostly dry
conditions with limited available moisture and a weak upper level
system drifting over the region. Instability and forcing from the
low pressure system may be enough to generate brief high based
storms over the mountain rains that will produce very little
measurable rain and some possible dry lightning. The lowlands
should remain dry. Being late May, temperatures will start to
climb higher as we head into June, normally our warmest month of
the year.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z-27/12Z...
Upper level system will pass north of the area today with westerly
winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots aft 17Z.
Some minor blowing dust will briefly reduce visibilities to 4sm.
Winds will diminish aft 03Z. Winds at KELP may stay up to aft 06z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low pressure system will track east across northern
New Mexico today. There will be a slight chance of precip for the
northern portions of the Gila Region and Sacramento mountains. It
will continue to be dry with minimum humidity values dropping to
single digits this afternoon. Westerly wind speeds will be near
critical values but may not be sustained for the minimum 3 hour
requirement for red flag thresholds. Wind speeds will be much
lower for Friday and the weekend while dry conditions persist.
Temperatures will rebound back up to to near or slightly above
normals during the weekend. Long range outlook for next week has
possible moisture increases for a slight chance of thunderstorms
by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 85  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           85  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              79  49  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              81  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              56  38  60  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   77  49  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             70  42  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  76  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               77  45  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      83  57  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               85  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            88  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              78  51  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  86  54  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            82  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          80  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           79  46  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   81  47  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                82  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               81  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 67  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               67  42  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                66  40  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 69  38  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               73  46  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               77  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            69  34  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  72  41  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   74  40  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              72  37  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 73  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  80  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 80  48  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          80  48  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              75  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/04/04



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