Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 262147
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
247 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A small storm sweeping across the Borderland this evening will
bring some clouds and winds to the area. Another storm system will
move off the Pacific Ocean and to the Borderland Monday night and
Tuesday. This system will spread strong winds to most of the area,
with gusts above 60 mph possible in the afternoon. Showers will
also develop, mainly over the mountains. After Tuesday the
Borderland will remain under a dry west to northwest flow aloft,
with above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small quick hitting upper low/storm now over Arizona and western
New Mexico. Afternoon winds have started to pick up, and though
advisory criteria looks marginal, will let advisory for southern
zones run its course. Several sites along and south of I-10 are
now gusting into the 30s. Still a slight chance of showers, mainly
over the mountains, but this chance likely done by midnight.
Monday clears out with the storm exiting, just waiting for storm
number two.

Storm number two currently organizing over the eastern Pacific.
System will phase in with trough/vort center as a broad trough
over the western U.S. Monday night. System will integrate some
tropical moisture per SSMI TPW, so some moderate precip possible.
Models showing TPW around .50 inches by Monday night and Tuesday.
Showers starting Monday night west of Deming, and then spreading
further east Tuesday, though chances best west and north of Las
Cruces. Snow levels will remain mostly above 7500 feet, but with
decent moisture, would not be surprised if the Gila/Black Range
above this elevation sees about 3-5 inches of snow. Main threat as
is usually the case this time of year, will be winds. GFS showing
low level winds reaching 35-45 mph with mix down winds around
700mb of 45-55 mph. Right now wind advisory pretty much a lock
and is bordering on warning criteria. Models showing winds
diminishing and turning northwest by mid evening, so late night
east slope wind event may not develop.

System to clear the area Tuesday night. Wednesday through Sunday
period looking dry and warm as main storm track remains north of
us in a low energy zonal flow. By the weekend, high temps could be
around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z...
VFR conditions with FEW140-SCT250 except over Gila Region where
mid- lvl clouds west with SCT080/BKN120. Start of period thru 02z
270-280 with winds 25-30KTS and gusts 35-45kts and decreasing
visibilities. BLDU could cause local sfc visibilities down to 1SM
across the lowlands. 02Z to 06Z winds decreasing to 260-270 with
15-20 winds and gusts 25-30KT. After 06z thru rest of period winds
26010G15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy and dry weather returned to the region today. Red Flag warning
remains in effect until this evening for fire weather zones 055, 056
and 112. Monday the region sees a break from the winds as the next
Pacific storm system begins to approach the area from the east.
Tuesday the Pacific storm system moves across the area bringing very
windy conditions. Increased moisture will keep min RHs just above
critical thresholds. As a result all zones will remain just outside
Reg Flag warning criteria Tuesday but with the environment very dry
and conditions very windy fire danger will be high, if not very
high. Wednesday and into the latter part of next week a period of
calm, warm and dry weather settles in over southern New Mexico and
west Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 45  68  50  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           43  70  48  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              36  66  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              39  65  45  63 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft              22  39  31  36 /   0   0  10  30
Truth or Consequences   35  64  42  58 /   0   0   0  20
Silver City             34  54  37  47 /   0   0  20  50
Deming                  35  65  40  60 /   0   0   0  20
Lordsburg               34  63  38  56 /   0   0  20  30
West El Paso Metro      45  68  50  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               37  68  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            42  72  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              40  65  45  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  43  70  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            40  67  45  64 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          42  66  48  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           34  66  40  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   36  65  43  61 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                39  69  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               40  68  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 29  51  39  52 /   0   0  10  20
Mescalero               27  51  36  48 /   0   0  20  20
Timberon                27  49  36  48 /   0   0  10  20
Winston                 25  54  31  49 /   0   0  20  40
Hillsboro               30  61  37  55 /   0   0   0  30
Spaceport               34  63  40  58 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            26  51  30  46 /   0   0  30  60
Hurley                  34  58  35  51 /   0   0  20  30
Cliff                   34  60  36  50 /   0   0  20  50
Mule Creek              32  56  37  46 /   0   0  30  60
Faywood                 29  60  36  54 /   0   0  10  30
Animas                  34  66  41  60 /   0   0  10  30
Hachita                 34  66  40  61 /   0   0   0  20
Antelope Wells          36  67  40  61 /   0   0   0  20
Cloverdale              34  61  39  55 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ112.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ404>407-410-411-
     413-417.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Hefner/Pazos


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