Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172101
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
301 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and westerly winds aloft will continue warmer and
dry conditions tonight into Wednesday morning with with light
surface winds across the region. A Pacific trough in the upper
atmosphere will approach the Borderland Wednesday with more
high clouds tonight and even slight chances for some showers
along the southern Border by later Wednesday afternoon. By
Wednesday night and Thursday the system will move into southern
New Mexico and bring a better risk of showers and even some
thunderstorms. By Friday the trough should exit to our east with
dry conditions returning with with breezy west winds. The coming
weekend should be dry with seasonal temperatures with another cold
front forecast to push in for Sunday with cooler but also dry
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure aloft over the Southwestern U.S. will
bring the Borderland mild and dry weather with light winds tonight
into Wednesday morning. This ridge will flatten by Wednesday as a
short wave trough spins off a larger Pacific trough in the Pacific
Northwest giving us more dirty skies with increasing high clouds
and increasing zonal flow aloft. As the short wave trough
approaches us later Wednesday and moves across Thursday, the low
level winds will back to more southwesterly and start to tap some
of the subtropical moisture resident over Mexico. This moisture
will slowly start to advect northward toward our southern border
as this first impulse moves in Wednesday afternoon and night. This
moisture overall is not overly impressive but the models (GFS ECM
NAM in order of aggressiveness) suggest some minor QPF mainly
over the south and southeast zones for the PM hours WED. The
short wave trough is forecast to move over us Thursday with a
little more moisture and at most moderate dynamics. Models show
PWs 3/4 to 1" (above normal for this time of year) and dewpoints
rising to the maybe the lower 50s. With about a 2 deg C temp drop
at H5, There will be some instability with LIs in the -1 to
-3 range and MUCAPES in the 400-100 J/kg range. Qualitatively the
system is fast with not much amplitude so anything it can deliver
will be appreciated especially at this time of year.

By Friday stronger westerly winds move in.. A fairly strong
trough aloft will move across the Central Rockies associated with
a strong Jet Stream aloft, tighter mid- level gradients, and a
lee surface trough which will result in a breezy afternoon. These
stronger westerly winds will scour out any residual moisture that
is left in our area to the east. This passing strong trough to
our north is forecast to sharpen and amplify Saturday as it dives
into the Southern Plains well to our east. The ensuing building
ridge to our west with sharp northwest flow aloft should guarantee
us a dry weekend with somewhat breezy westerly winds and slightly
warm temperatures Saturday.

In the Northwest flow aloft, another impulse will slip
southeastward brining another backdoor front (actually more of a
"side- door" front as it will push in more from the north than the
east) and bring us drier and a little cooler weather. Looking
beyond into next week...high pressure should dominate to our west
bringing us basically dry and warm weather.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
VFR conds thru the period with only high clouds over the TAF sites.
Winds will remain light and variable as a high pressure persists
over the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper high pressure is moving away increasing the cloud coverage
in the next few days. Chances for wetting precip exist between
Wednesday and Friday, as an upper trough moves through the area.
Vent rates will be on the rise through Friday as this system
approaches, but once the cold front passes through on Sunday the
rates will deteriorate again. Breezy conditions are expected with
the front on the weekend. It will take all the moisture away
remaining dry for the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 58  87  61  85 /   0  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca           55  86  59  83 /   0  10  10  10
Las Cruces              53  84  57  82 /   0   0  20  20
Alamogordo              51  84  57  81 /   0   0  20  20
Cloudcroft              39  64  47  62 /   0   0  30  30
Truth or Consequences   54  84  56  81 /   0   0  30  30
Silver City             48  78  52  77 /   0   0  30  30
Deming                  52  86  54  83 /   0   0  20  20
Lordsburg               55  85  56  84 /   0   0  20  20
West El Paso Metro      58  85  62  84 /   0  10  20  20
Dell City               48  88  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock            58  89  61  86 /   0  10  10  10
Loma Linda              54  82  59  80 /   0  10  20  20
Fabens                  55  88  59  85 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Teresa            56  85  60  84 /   0  10  20  20
White Sands HQ          53  84  58  82 /   0   0  20  20
Jornada Range           48  84  57  81 /   0   0  20  20
Hatch                   53  86  56  83 /   0   0  20  20
Columbus                53  86  57  84 /   0   0  20  20
Orogrande               53  83  58  83 /   0   0  20  20
Mayhill                 41  75  48  70 /   0   0  30  30
Mescalero               43  73  49  71 /   0   0  30  30
Timberon                38  72  50  69 /   0   0  30  30
Winston                 38  78  47  74 /   0   0  40  40
Hillsboro               50  82  53  79 /   0   0  40  40
Spaceport               44  85  55  81 /   0   0  20  20
Lake Roberts            38  78  45  76 /   0   0  40  40
Hurley                  46  81  51  79 /   0   0  30  30
Cliff                   43  84  49  82 /   0   0  20  20
Mule Creek              44  81  52  79 /   0   0  30  30
Faywood                 49  82  53  79 /   0   0  30  30
Animas                  54  86  56  85 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                 53  86  55  85 /   0   0  20  20
Antelope Wells          53  87  55  84 /   0   0  20  20
Cloverdale              55  84  55  81 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/29 NOVLAN / CRESPO


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