Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181010
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
310 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively moist southwest flow will continue over the Borderland
through Monday night, with a slight chance of showers most areas
through this period. Increasing winds aloft with a series of upper
troughs will also increase the winds at the surface. Winds today
will increase to 20 to 30 mph, with even a bit stronger winds on
Monday. Temperatures will be well above normal today and Monday.
Drier southwest flow will develop for most of the rest of the week
as troughs aloft continue toward our area. Temperatures will cool
to around normal Tuesday and Wednesday and then warm back above
normal for the remainder of the week. Gusty winds will return
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a pretty active week shaping up ahead of us, though not
terribly impactful. Large scale pattern finds amplified upper
ridge over the north Pacific and Alaska, with a long wave trough
over the western half of the U.S. This general pattern will hold
through the forecast period.

In the short term...upper low off the northern Baja continues to
pump some layered moisture up over the area, though not as moist
as out recent rain event. PWs are around .3 inches north to .7
inches far south. PWs are not forecast to chance much, but the
Baja low opening up into trough and advancing toward the area
(western Arizona this afternoon and to west Texas Monday
afternoon) will increase upper dynamics and give the area a slight
chance of showers today and Monday. The western CWA will be under
the RRQ of 90+ kt jet this afternoon to aid in shower development.
The jet will displace east of the area Monday, but increasing PVA
will continue the chance of showers. Probably of more importance
is the winds accompanying this upper trough. The strong cross
mountain flow will develop a lee side trough this afternoon,
though mostly over the Colorado front range (not ideal for strong
winds locally). Having said that though, we will still probably
see winds into the windy category this afternoon. On Monday the
lee side troughing extends more into eastern New Mexico and the
winds aloft increase around 10 mph through the layer. Surface
winds will probably reach into the lower advisory criteria, but
will let day shift look one more time at this. Snow levels will
remain quite high today, but slowly fall tonight and Monday with
some cooler air aloft (perhaps down to 8000 ft Mon afternoon).
Trough looks to bring a weak Pacific cool front through Monday
night so snow levels will drop to 6000 ft west/6500 ft east Monday
night at the tail end of the shower activity.

The remainder of the week will see a series of short waves drop
down the front side of the upper ridge and into the long wave
trough, with the aid of strong jet streaks. Tuesday and Wednesday
will see a break as we sit under the base of the long wave trough.
The first short wave then moves in Thursday. Looks a bit too far
north for showers, though the Gila could see a stray shower. The
trough will bring back gusty winds Thursday and especially Friday.
Though beyond the forecast period, a second trough drops down
Sunday for more winds, but little chance of showers.

Temperatures will be up and down: Highs today well above normal
with the the beginning of southwest winds. Monday still above
normal though a bit cooler as cooler air aloft mixes down. Tuesday
and Wednesday will see highs back to or slightly below normal
behind the Pacific cool front. Temperatures will warm back above
normal Thursday and Friday with the return of southwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z...
12Z-14Z patchy 1-3SM BR and low ceilings FEW-SCT001-005. An upper
level disturbance will allow for breezy afternoon winds on Sunday
along with some spotty rain showers. Afternoon winds 230-260 20-25KT
with G30. Ceilings generally SCT-BKN040-060 SCT-BKN200-250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The primary focus over the next couple days will be breezy to windy
conditions today and Monday. An upper level system will bring a
slight chance of rain showers on Sunday along with breezy afternoon
west winds around 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will
be 5-10 degrees above normal. Monday will be cooler and drier with
west winds 25-30 mph and gusts around 40 mph. The rest of the week
will feature light winds and near normal temperatures. Min RH will
stay above 20 percent area wide through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  56  67  49 /   0  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca           74  50  72  43 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces              71  49  65  41 /   0  10  10   0
Alamogordo              69  48  66  41 /   0  10  10  10
Cloudcroft              52  33  40  26 /  10  20  30  20
Truth or Consequences   68  48  66  39 /  20  10  10  20
Silver City             60  41  54  31 /  20  20  20  30
Deming                  69  45  65  38 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg               68  43  64  36 /  20  20  20  10
West El Paso Metro      70  56  67  48 /   0  10  10   0
Dell City               73  49  69  42 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock            76  53  72  46 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda              70  50  63  42 /   0  10  10   0
Fabens                  74  53  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa            71  50  66  44 /   0  10  10   0
White Sands HQ          71  52  67  44 /   0  10  10   0
Jornada Range           70  46  66  40 /   0  10  10   0
Hatch                   70  46  68  38 /   0  10  10   0
Columbus                71  49  67  41 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande               72  51  68  44 /   0  10  10   0
Mayhill                 60  41  51  34 /  20  10  30  20
Mescalero               58  37  49  31 /  20  10  30  20
Timberon                59  38  49  32 /  10  10  30  20
Winston                 64  36  55  28 /  20  20  20  20
Hillsboro               66  43  60  35 /  20  10  20  30
Spaceport               69  44  65  39 /  10  10  10  10
Lake Roberts            61  32  52  24 /  20  30  30  30
Hurley                  63  40  57  35 /  20  20  20  20
Cliff                   64  40  62  35 /  20  30  30  30
Mule Creek              62  41  57  35 /  20  30  20  30
Faywood                 64  42  58  34 /  20  10  20  20
Animas                  68  45  65  37 /  20  20  20  10
Hachita                 68  43  65  37 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells          68  47  64  38 /  20  20  10  10
Cloverdale              64  46  58  37 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Dennhardt



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