Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 132223
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
323 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see one more sunny warm day on Thursday before we see a
slight chance for rain along the International Border Thursday
night and cooler weather on Friday. On Saturday we will be cool
under partly cloudy skies, but then we will see another chance for
precipitation on Sunday into the first part of Monday. For Tuesday
and beyond we will again return to our sunny, warm and dry
weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A little better agreement in the short term, but still some big
differences for the end of the weekend. Currently a ridge along
the west coast was forcing several short wave troughs to take the
long trip up and around the top of the ridge in southern Canada
to then head south toward New Mexico. Before the first short wave
arrives late on Thursday, we will see another beautiful day across
the area on Thursday. Highs will be 5 to 8 degrees above average
with mostly clear skies. Then later on Thursday the first upper
level trough will drop in from the south and join forces with an
old upper level that has been lurking to our southwest the last
several days. Right now most of the models agree that the
precipitation chances will hop scotch us, with some precipitation
to our north and then nothing as it crosses our area and then as
it join forces with the second low it begins to again produce
precipitation, but this time just to the south of the
International Border. For now, I have included some slight chance
pops along the border and in Hudspeth county, but I`m not
thinking many of us will see much rain at all.

As the upper level trough passes by it will drag some cooler air
into the region so that the highs on Friday and Saturday will be
a few degrees below average. On Saturday the upper level ridge to
our west will move even further west and a second, stronger,
short wave trough moves down the California coast. By Saturday
night the extended models disagree on the handling of the low. The
ECMWF keeps the low moving south of the Baja, keeping it a non-
player for our weather through the start of next week. The GFS, on
the other hand, turns the low much harder to the east. The
eastward turn allows it to tap some moisture and bring a pretty
good precipitation event to the region on Sunday night into Monday
morning. It is kind of hard to split the difference between dry
and wet solutions of the models, so what I have done is
introduced some slight chance pops across all of the area on
Sunday evening into Monday morning. Right now if the precipitation
does fall, it would be snow above 6,000 feet. Right now it is too
early to start talking about snow totals, but if the models come
into a better consensus on the track of the low we will need to
adjust our precipitation chances either up or down. I just got a
peak at the 18Z GFS, and it is sticking to its much more easterly
track of the low with decent amounts of precipitation for Sunday
night. After a cool start to next week we will see a warmer and
drier trend for much of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 14/00Z-15/00Z...
Expect to see a continuation of VFR conditions at all terminals thru
the period with P6SM SKC. Winds should stay mainly light and from
the west and southwest. However an approaching cold front from the
east will turn winds to the northeast at speeds of 15-20 knots
between 21Z and 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued dry and mild through most of Thursday before a back door
cold front brings a drop in temps for Friday through the weekend.
This will also introduce breezy east winds, especially along west
facing slopes. At the same time a few showers will be possible
Thursday night along the international border as an upper
disturbance tracks east. A stronger upper level system will bring
additional rain chances to most zones Sunday & Monday with some
light snow Sunday night and early Monday. A few lowland spots may
see a rain snow mix with most snow confined to higher elevations.
Temps will then begin to moderate back to above normal by the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 32  62  34  53 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca           33  59  33  51 /   0   0  20   0
Las Cruces              29  61  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              25  58  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              23  45  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   25  60  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             31  60  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  27  64  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               28  65  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      35  61  35  52 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City               26  59  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            31  63  35  54 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda              33  57  33  49 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                  31  63  33  53 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa            27  61  31  51 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ          32  60  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           23  61  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   25  62  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                32  64  31  53 /   0   0  10   0
Orogrande               27  60  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 28  50  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               23  52  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                28  50  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 21  57  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               24  60  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               24  60  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            18  60  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  25  62  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   18  65  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              29  63  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 30  62  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  30  67  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 29  66  30  54 /   0   0  10   0
Antelope Wells          30  66  31  53 /   0   0  10   0
Cloverdale              34  64  33  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Laney



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