Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 060148
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
648 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A rather dry and quiet weather week ahead as dry west to
northwest flow will persist through the period. Temperatures for
the most part will be at or slightly above normal. However, a
cold front will sweep in from the east Wednesday evening, turning
Thursday and Friday into quite chilly days, before warming back to
normal for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pretty quiet weather scene developing for the forecast period as
mostly dry west/northwest flow persists, compliments of staying
south of the main storm track. Several short waves track across
the northern U.S., which just leaves us at the bottom of those
troughs-all energy and moisture remaining north of the CWA.
Temperatures will remain near normal through Wednesday. GFS
showing considerable high level moisture, so thick cirrus ceilings
could chop a few degrees of expected highs.

A bit deeper trough tracks across the southern Rockies Wednesday,
allowing a back door cold front into the area by evening. Strong
cold advection with this will bring significant cool down to the
area on Thursday, with 10-15 degree drop expected. Chances of
precip not very good. Both GFS/NAM show increase of low level RH
for the Sacs Wednesday night, but corresponding rise in dewpoints
is absent-indicating just some saturation from cooling. Certainly
possible for some stratus/freezing fog along east slopes of the
Sacs. Did not push the grids in this direction yet, but will have
to watch for that. Temperatures back to normal by Saturday.

Always fun to look at the 240 hr prog but usually a waste of time.
GFS 240 hr shows very serious cold intrusion into our area,
however ECMWF solution is about as far apart as you could get (on
the warm side). So no panic button yet.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 06/00Z-07/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 through period. Winds will be generally from the
west between 10 to 15 knots, southwest winds after 12Z. Occasional
wind gusts up to 25 knots could occur thru period at all sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry, west to northwest flow will set in the region leading to a
slight warm up before a back door cold front reaches the
borderland on Thursday. Minimum relative humidities will remain in
the upper 20s through Wednesday, then they will increase into
the 30s for the rest of the period. On Thursday, temperatures
will decrease to about 10 degrees below normal as the front moves
through. For the rest of the week, temperatures will warm up as a
dry southwest flow develops over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...CORRECTED
El Paso                 41  63  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           37  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              35  61  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              35  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              22  42  23  39 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   33  57  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             30  53  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  32  61  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               32  61  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      41  63  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               35  62  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            40  66  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              37  57  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  39  63  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            38  62  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          38  61  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           21  61  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   29  60  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                36  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               36  61  40  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 26  53  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               26  51  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                26  51  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 23  53  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               29  57  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               22  58  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            21  53  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  29  56  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   22  58  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              20  56  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 30  57  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  32  65  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 31  64  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          31  64  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              34  59  34  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/29 Hefner/Crespo


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