Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230934
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
334 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SEASONABLY
WARM...MOSTLY DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS BRING A RETURN OF WARM DRY
WEATHER NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO UTAH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND MAIN SYSTEM
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF FIRST WAVE
WILL ADVECT BARELY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY TO
INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT DRY AIR INTO THE CWA RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER TODAY.
GRADIENTS ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN WHILE AFTERNOON MIXING
HEIGHTS RISE TO AROUND 500 MB. THUS BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LEE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITH
CONTINUED INFLOW OF SEASONABLY WARM DRY AIR KEEPING THE REGION
MOSTLY DRY DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF THE GILAS AND SACS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIFT
MAY SUPPORT VERY ISOLATED STORMS ON MONDAY. PASSING SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FURTHER MAINTAIN WARM DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS BACKING AND DEVELOPING A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE TO AROUND .75 TO 1
INCH. THUS EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DEEP
WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000
FEET AGL. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 KT BETWEEN 20Z AND
02Z WITH AREAS OF MODERATE OR GREATER TURBULENCE BELOW 10,000 FEET
AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SEASONABLY
WARM...MOSTLY DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH
LOWEST HUMIDITY AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 10 TO 20
PERCENT MOUNTAINS. THUS NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS BRING A RETURN
OF WARM DRY WEATHER NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  57  83  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  52  80  53  83 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              82  49  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              83  50  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              60  37  59  40  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  48  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             71  41  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  46  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               77  45  80  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      85  56  82  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               82  50  82  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  55  84  56  87 /  10  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              80  51  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  85  54  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            85  52  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  53  81  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           81  45  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   81  47  82  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  50  81  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               83  53  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 70  42  68  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               71  40  68  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                69  42  68  45  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 72  40  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               81  44  79  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               81  45  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            71  39  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  74  41  75  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   76  40  78  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              76  36  76  39  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  43  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  79  46  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  45  82  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  45  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              78  43  77  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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