Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
THEN PUSH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS NOW COMING INTO RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT ON EVOLVING AND
POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS
SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTIES
STILL EXIST GIVEN THE TIME SCALES.

THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING VERY DRY WITH A .5 INCH INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUS WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. THIS REFLECTS THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE SUSTAINING HOT MOSTLY WEATHER
OVER THE CWA.

REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLEX AND
CHALLENGING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURES POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE OUTCOME. FIRST THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE WEST COAST. IN ADDITION REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM DOLLY WILL MEANDER INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO
WHILE A PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORBERT DRIFTS SLOWLY AROUND
SOUTHERN BAJA. INITIALLY THE PATTERN OF RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL GENERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WHICH WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL INCLUDE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE ATTENDANT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL
SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH. THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES BY LATER THURSDAY AND REMAIN AROUND THESE
LEVELS INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.

YET WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ON AN
EAST TO WEST AXIS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. VERY WEAK
DISSIPATING FRONT MAY ALSO ENTER THE CWA ON SATURDAY BUT
ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOKS TO BE SHALLOW AND RATHER FEEBLE. THUS
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. STORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z - 04/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W TO NW UP TO 10KTS THRU
12Z...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE S TO SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
RIDGE WILL START TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE COMING DAYS
AND BRING IN SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT THE LATEST MODELS HAVE WESTERN EXTENSION OF RIDGE KEEPING BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER ARIZONA FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO COME THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  98  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
SIERRA BLANCA           70  95  70  89  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              67  97  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              66  96  70  94  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  74  51  70  50 /   0  20  10  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  94  67  92  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
SILVER CITY             61  92  61  87  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
DEMING                  63  97  67  94  63 /   0   0   0  10  20
LORDSBURG               63  96  66  95  63 /   0   0   0  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  98  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               70  98  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            74  97  74  92  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              70  93  67  87  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  71  96  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
SANTA TERESA            70  97  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  95  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           63  96  66  92  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   65  97  67  92  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
COLUMBUS                67  95  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               69  96  71  93  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 56  83  57  78  56 /   0  10  10  20  30
MESCALERO               56  84  55  81  56 /   0  10  10  20  30
TIMBERON                54  84  57  80  54 /   0  10  10  20  30
WINSTON                 58  86  55  82  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
HILLSBORO               63  92  62  86  63 /   0   0   0  20  20
SPACEPORT               66  95  67  90  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            56  89  55  85  56 /   0   0   0  20  30
HURLEY                  61  94  62  90  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLIFF                   58  92  55  92  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
MULE CREEK              52  90  52  90  52 /   0   0   0  30  30
FAYWOOD                 62  92  62  86  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  67  95  67  93  67 /   0   0   0  20  30
HACHITA                 62  96  66  93  62 /   0   0   0  10  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  94  65  93  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLOVERDALE              63  93  63  91  63 /   0   0   0  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ




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