Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 052153
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD OVERNIGHT IS IN STORE AGAIN FOR THE BORDERLAND...AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDING
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL MEAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FEATURES
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST OVER NM.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OUTLINES THIS PATTERN NICELY AND HINTS
AT DVLPMNT OF UL CIRCULATION OFF THE STJ CIRRUS SHIELD SW OF BAJA
CA. OVER THE ROCKIES...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES...ALSO
EVIDENCED BY AREA SOUNDINGS. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
OUR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING AND STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NRN NM IN RESPONSE...HAS RESULTED IN STRONG GRADIENT
INDUCED WINDS OVER THE AREA. BY MID DAY...GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WERE
OBSERVED IN THE LAST CRUCES AREA AND ACROSS THE TULAROSA BASIN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS EVENING HOWEVER WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS IS IN THE PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A CONSEQUENCE THE NEAR TERM IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT FOR THE BORDERLAND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
REMEMBER THE FOUR P`S...PROTECT PEOPLE...YOUR PETS...PLANTS AND
PIPES AGAINST THE COLD.

IMPACTS SATURDAY NIGHT: VERY COLD AGAIN....WITH LOWS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHTS READINGS.

ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE THE PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS THE
CONUS AMPLIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL FEATURE A WEST
COAST HIGH SLOWLY RE-BUILDING AND TRANSLATING EAST OVER THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEEPENING
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS. ON SUNDAY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE HIGH...A WK UL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SW OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS A CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK IS
EXPECTED...WHICH FAVORS DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME MID WEEK...AND SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN
OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

THIS MEANS WARMER WEATHER...GENERALLY LIGHT BREEZES MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS EARLY AS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/00Z-07/00Z... P6SM SKC WITH NE TO E WINDS
QUICKLY DECREASING TO UNDER 10KTS AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE S TO SE
AOB 12KTS AFT 12Z


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THEN GOING ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS LOWLANDS AND SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VENT RATES POOR TO FAIR


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 24  55  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           21  53  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              20  53  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              20  53  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              13  39  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   22  53  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             18  50  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  20  54  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               20  55  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      26  55  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               17  55  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            23  57  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              24  52  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  22  56  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            22  54  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          23  53  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           13  53  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   18  54  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                23  54  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               22  53  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 17  49  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               15  47  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                17  45  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 16  50  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               18  53  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               18  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            12  52  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  17  51  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   16  55  21  63 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              14  55  20  62 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 19  51  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  19  56  23  63 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 18  55  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          18  56  23  62 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              20  55  26  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ


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