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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291044
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWS TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BECOME COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER MILDER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL STRIKE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INITIAL
COLD AIR SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL.
MEANWHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICAN BORDER BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL COINCIDE WITH A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

EVOLVING PATTERN WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID
LEVELS WITH 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 700 MB ADVECTING WARMER
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. THUS SIGNIFICANT
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION
APPROACH WILL CAUSE GRADUALLY INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING AS
EVIDENT ON THE DIFFERENTIAL PVA FIELDS. BY FRIDAY MORNING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM .75 TO ALMOST AN INCH
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECT MAINLY RAINFALL OVER THE
LOWLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW
OVER A FEW NORTHERN LOWLAND AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR WINTER WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING AROUND AN
INCH. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO INITIALLY INHIBIT
MOUNTAIN SNOWS BUT DYNAMIC COOLING AT MID LEVELS OVER LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOWS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SO HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA WILDERNESS WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWS EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE BORDER
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA.
THESE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN BOTH DIMINISHING MOISTURE INFLOW AND
LIFT WITH PRECIP THREAT ACCORDINGLY LOWERING DURING THIS TIME. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEEP NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED
WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z WITH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 MPH
OVER SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN FACING SLOPES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 22Z INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWS TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE AROUND AN INCH OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY ALSO BE AROUND 6 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN FACING SLOPES. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BECOME COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIER WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  42  47  37  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
SIERRA BLANCA           59  40  46  35  54 /  10  40  60  70  60
LAS CRUCES              60  40  45  35  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
ALAMOGORDO              61  37  46  33  52 /  20  70  70  70  60
CLOUDCROFT              45  29  35  24  39 /  20  70  80  80  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   58  37  44  33  50 /  20  70  60  60  50
SILVER CITY             58  39  43  34  48 /  20  70  80  70  60
DEMING                  61  41  45  34  52 /  20  70  70  60  50
LORDSBURG               63  41  47  35  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  45  47  39  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
DELL CITY               60  37  45  31  53 /  10  50  70  70  60
FORT HANCOCK            65  44  52  38  58 /  20  50  60  60  60
LOMA LINDA              58  39  43  34  50 /  20  60  80  70  60
FABENS                  63  41  49  35  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
SANTA TERESA            62  41  47  35  55 /  20  60  70  60  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          61  41  45  35  53 /  20  70  80  60  50
JORNADA RANGE           60  36  46  31  53 /  20  70  80  60  60
HATCH                   62  40  47  33  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
COLUMBUS                61  45  46  37  53 /  20  70  70  60  50
OROGRANDE               61  39  46  35  53 /  20  60  70  60  50
MAYHILL                 50  30  36  28  41 /  20  70  80  80  60
MESCALERO               50  31  38  26  42 /  20  70  80  70  70
TIMBERON                51  33  40  29  45 /  20  70  80  80  60
WINSTON                 53  36  40  32  44 /  30  80  70  60  60
HILLSBORO               57  41  44  34  48 /  20  70  70  60  60
SPACEPORT               61  36  46  32  52 /  20  70  70  60  50
LAKE ROBERTS            58  39  44  32  47 /  30  80  80  70  70
HURLEY                  58  38  43  32  48 /  20  70  70  60  60
CLIFF                   63  40  49  34  53 /  20  70  70  60  60
MULE CREEK              61  34  46  30  49 /  20  70  70  70  60
FAYWOOD                 59  41  43  34  48 /  20  70  70  70  60
ANIMAS                  65  41  50  35  55 /  20  70  70  60  50
HACHITA                 63  41  49  34  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  41  54  34  54 /  20  70  70  60  50
CLOVERDALE              63  44  52  38  54 /  20  70  80  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH



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