Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240312
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
912 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS THE GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALSO WORKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS EARLIER IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM AS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAD
FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. THE WILL HELP TO FOCUS STRONGER WINDS AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVELS AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTY DOWN SLOPING CONDITIONS
ALONG EAST FACING SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. EVEN THESE AREAS WILL
SEE WIND SPEEDS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS OUR SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CARRY A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT....LOWERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY. HIGHS
WARM BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DELIVERS
VERY STRONG WINDS AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS AND OUR REGION IS NO
EXCEPTION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH RELATIVELY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.
TROUGH AXIS IS NOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EASTERN UTAH. TROUGH
WILL BRING A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES LOWER FOR
THURSDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SFC ANALYZES...NAM 12 AND OTHER HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE LEE SIDE LOW
CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN TX. ATTENDANT TROUGH FOLLOWS CLASSIC
BEHAVIOR...IN TRAILING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN TX INTO NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA.

AS OF 2 PM...SAN AUGUSTIN PASS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING THE HIGHEST GUST
AT 49 MPH. THEIR HIGHEST HAS BEEN 56 MPH...SET A COUPLE OF TIMES
EARLIER TODAY. BY CONTRAST...INSTRUMENTATION AT SALINAS PEAK HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN REPORTING WINDS BY ROUGHLY A FACTOR OF 15 TO 20
MPH LOWER. GIVEN THAT SALINAS PEAK REPORTING SITE IS 4000 FEET
HIGHER THAN SAN AUGUSTIN PASS...THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOING MORE OF THE WORK IN
GENERATING OUR GUSTY LOWLAND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT BLOWING
DUST IS EVIDENT NOW OVER THE BORDERLAND.

NAM...GFS AND MAJORITY OF SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS POINT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
9 PM. THIS WILL FAVOR TRAPPING OF SOME OF THE MOMENTUM WITH THE
WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KFT AT THAT TIME. RESULT WILL MEAN
GUSTY DOWN SLOPE WINDS TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG AND NEAR EAST FACING
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR EL PASO...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
AREAS...THIS WILL MEAN A VERY WINDY START TO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT

BROAD RATHER FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY FOLLOW
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORT BREAK TO OUR WINDY WEATHER. BY FRIDAY
HOWEVER THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE...AS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OVER
OUR THE REGION. FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTER ON HIGH WINDS AREA WIDE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.HIGH WINDS...POSSIBLY THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY...LATEST TRENDS WITH MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS POINT
TO DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. 60 MPH OR MORE ACROSS
RIDGE LINES AND ESPECIALLY EAST ALONG FACING SLOPES. MECHANISMS
INCLUDE DEEP MIX DOWN OF MOMENTUM TO 600-650 MB...WHERE 50 TO 55
MPH WIND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LARGE
LEE CYCLONE WITH A SFC CENTER BELOW 900 MB OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ATTENDANT PAC COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY SYSTEM AND SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. DEPENDING ON ITS TIMING...LIFT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO MILES WITH
ENHANCEMENT TO THE BLOWING DUST.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE GILA REGION...AS LIFT AND DYNAMIC
COOLING ALOFT ARE GREATEST IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME. UPR LVL TROF
AXIS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AS A CONSEQUENCE...LEE SIDE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ANOTHER
WINDY DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY.
THE OTHER GOOD IS NEWS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS HAS MEANT A REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST...THIS
DIRECTION DOES NOT FAVOR THE COMMON SOURCE REGIONS FOR OUR HEAVIER
DUST.

TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MORE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...AS OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT
REMAINS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. 00Z-06Z SKC-SCT250
P6SM XCPT OCNLY 2-3SM IN BLDU TIL 04Z. WIND SOUTHWEST TO WEST
15-25KT G35KT TIL O4Z. AFTR 06Z SCT-BKN200-250 P6SM WIND WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT.

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
CAUSE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS...WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING. NOT
AS WIND TOMORROW AND NOT AS WARM...BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HUMIDTY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. DRY AND VERY WARM FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE GILA
REGION. THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY SUNDAY...WITH A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  82  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  80  51  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  78  50  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  77  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  54  42  61  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  76  50  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  71  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  78  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  77  49  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  80  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  82  48  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  86  56  93  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  74  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  81  55  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  80  54  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  78  55  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  77  53  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  80  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  66  44  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               37  67  41  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                37  65  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 40  72  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               51  73  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  75  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  70  40  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  42  73  47  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  73  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  72  35  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  71  48  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  79  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  78  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  80  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  76  47  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

27/99





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