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000
FXUS64 KEWX 230446
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
POCKETS OF STRATUS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THE STRATUS WILL FILL-IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH CIG BASES ALSO LOWERING. ANTICIPATE BKN-OVC CIGS BELOW
2KFT AT I-35 TAF SITES BY 07-08Z AND SPREADING WEST TO KDRT BY
11-12Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT I-35 TAF SITES IN THE NEAR-
DAYBREAK HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KAUS AROUND
SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE
REDUCED TO 5SM IN HAZE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SMOKE FROM THE
FIRES ACROSS THE YUCATAN ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL
BE SERLY 8 TO 12 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 18 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. S/W ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY COULD BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...ANOTHER 500 HPA TROF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MID TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL ENSURE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL RE-ASSESS WITH
THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS AT KAUS...AND COULD ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AT KSSF/KSAT AS SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SE-SLY
SFC WINDS AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  95  72  94  72 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  94  71  93  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  95  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  93  69  91  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  99  74  96  76 /   0   0  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  92  70  91  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  97  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  93  71  92  72 /   0   0  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  92  74  93  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  95  73  94  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  94  72  94  73 /   0   0  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08