Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 061952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR WEST BIG BEND AREA. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE
AND SHIFT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE IS CREATING
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE OF A DRYLINE WILL
HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NORTH MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAKE IT ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH AND HAVE
ONLY PLACED LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING, CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
HELP BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF AND THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTING OFF THE PARENT LOW SHOULD HELP
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND FAR NW HILL COUNTY. STRONG CAPPING SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH THUNDER BUT A FEW RUMBLES COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE LIMITED
AS CAPPING REDEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING WITH POOR MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES NEAR DEL RIO. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE REMOVED THIS TIME FRAME
FROM THE HWO. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE PWATS
INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 0.6" TO NEAR 1.3".

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF DRYLINE INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A RISK OF SOME STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING ISSUES APPEAR TO REMAIN SUNDAY FOR
THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME MID-LVL CLOUDINESS. THE BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH AS CONTINUED IMPULSES
EJECT OFF THE PARENT LOW AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE ORIENTATION OF THE DRYLINE BEING SW TO NE MAY NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT STRONGER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GREATER RAIN SHOWER AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS A IMPLIED STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.

BY MONDAY, THE ONCE PARENT CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE FARTHER
EAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SFC-H850 DRYLINE APPEARS WELL
RESOLVED ACROSS THE MODEL SPECTRUM FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT IT
WILL SHIFT THIS FAR EAST (NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR). WITH THE
DRYLINE PROXIMITY FOR A LOW-LVL TRIGGER COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 50-55 KT AND NEAR 2000 J/KG MLCAPE...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAP ERODES.
THE CAPPING EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BUT IT DOES
APPEAR WEAKER MONDAY THAN SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS REASON,
HAVE ADDED MORE DETAIL TO THE HWO FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST TUESDAY AND WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW, THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS PROBABLE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WELL. AGAIN, A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE PROGGED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD OCCUR
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PWATS
1.4-1.7"/. IT`S LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOLLOW A MORE
DIURNAL TREND WITH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BUT RANDOM SHOWER
GENERATION COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL IF A STRONGER
IMPULSE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. FINALLY BY EARLY WEEKEND, A WEAK
RIDGE COULD HELP CALM THE ACTIVITY PER THE GFS BUT THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  86  65  84  68 /   0  -   10  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  85  63  83  68 /   0  -   10  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  86  65  85  68 /   0  -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  84  64  82  67 /   0  -   10  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  90  67  89  67 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  84  63  82  68 /   0  -   10  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  87  65  87  68 /   0  10  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  84  64  83  68 /   0  -   10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  84  65  83  70 /   0  -   -   10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       60  86  65  85  68 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  87  67  86  70 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.