Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 261544 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
944 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS
AND AREA WEB CAMS. CIRRUS THICKER AND GREATER IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED. FOR NOW HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES YET TO HIGH TEMP
FORECAST...GIVEN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...BUT WILL MONITOR
HOURLY TEMPS TRENDS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE LATE MORNING TO GAUGE
INFLUENCE FROM CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
VFR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SPILLING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. LIGHT WEST WINDS COULD
INCREASE UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
LESS AND WILL DECREASE AGAIN TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPING SURFACE
WINDS ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PATTERN
CHANGE BEGINS ON THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS
COLD ADVECTION WAITS UNTIL THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ALONG 140 WEST LONGITUDE IN THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
RETURNING TO OUR WESTERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
QUESTIONS ON FRONTAL POSITION...UPPER LEVEL PIECES OF ENERGY...AS
WELL AS WHEN AND IF THE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND
WHEN IT OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING
FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH INTO
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THEN DECREASING SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT RESUMES IT TRACK SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST.
THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME HEAVIER RAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWS IN THE 1.2 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE ARE
FORECAST. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALREADY FORECAST DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN. CHANGES MAY BE POSSIBLE TO THE FORECAST AS THE RAINFALL
EVENT GETS CLOSER AND SOUNDING NETWORKS BETTER ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  46  77  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  41  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  42  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  42  76  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  42  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  44  76  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  38  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  42  75  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  45  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  44  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  42  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






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