Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 192026
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
RAIN CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM LLANO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SAN
MARCOS DOWN THROUGH AND CUERO. PARTS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE CURRENTLY NEAR MIDLAND
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA...FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM POLO...CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.5 INCHES. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT DEL RIO HAD A PW VALUE OF 1.98 INCHES. WHILE MODELS
SHOW THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE STAYING TO OUR NORTH THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE
AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE REISSUED. THAT SAID LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE...AS WE SAW THIS MORNING...SO SOME AREAS COULD GET 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 3-4 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THAT OVERNIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
SHIFT CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INCREASING THEIR CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

AS THE TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ARE SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF WEST TEXAS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL TEXAS COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE DRYING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW THE FRONT THAT WAS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND ONLY PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT ON
MONDAY AND AID IN DRIER AIR MOVE IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. BOTH LONG RANGE
MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT WITH THE MAIN
FORCING TO THE NORTH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE DRY AIR
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  90  73  92  73 /  30  30  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  90  71  92  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  94  72 /  30  30  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  86  72  92  71 /  30  30  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  30  40  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  89  73  92  72 /  30  30  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  89  74  93  73 /  40  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  93  72 /  30  30  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  89  75  93  74 /  30  30  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  90  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





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