Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 221947
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
With this morning`s front pushed well south of the CWA this
afternoon, all that remains is north winds and mostly clear skies.
Wind fields have remained below what much of the guidance was
anticipating and as a result have tempered wind grids down for the
rest of the afternoon.

Tonight, a surface high will move south and sit itself overtop of the
CWA resulting in nearly calm winds. This, in combination with clear
skies, will result in an exceptional radiational cooling set up for
much of the CWA, especially in the Hill Country where the literal
center of the high pressure is progged to be positioned by 12Z
tomorrow morning. These situations tend to result in guidance
performing quite poorly, and with the last cold front passage, lows
were too warm by 5-8 degrees in some instances. Thus, have undercut
guidance lows significantly overnight tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Another frontal passage will pass through Tuesday morning, but
compared to today`s will likely go unnoticed other than the dropping
high temperatures again into the mid to upper 70s and maintaining
chilly overnight lows through the week.

The only potential weather hazard will be fire weather concerns
Tuesday with the passage of the aforementioned front. Sustained winds
of 10-20 mph and afternoon RH values falling into the upper teens and
low 20s across the CWA will result in elevated fire weather
conditions during the afternoon Tuesday.

Moving through the week, yet another strong cold front is continuing
to be advertised Friday which should be the knock-out punch that
brings some morning lows below the 40 degree mark Saturday in the
Hill Country and keeps the region cool for more than a day. In fact,
day 7 MEX and ECE guidance shows highs in the upper 60s for the
northern half of the CWA next weekend. Although it is worth
mentioning that ensemble members varied by 20+ degrees so confidence
is not high as of yet. But given the consistency in model runs so far
in this next front, do believe it will be the coolest weekend of the
season thus far.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              51  82  54  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  46  81  52  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     48  81  52  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            46  80  51  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           51  82  55  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        46  81  51  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             46  82  52  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        47  81  52  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   50  80  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       49  82  54  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           51  82  54  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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