Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 292005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LATE
WEEKEND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
RAIN PLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY SHORT WAVE.
OTHERWISE MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT. USE MODEL BLEND EXCEPT POPS
WHERE LITTLE CHANGES MADE DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.

FROST MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWING 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT SO THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT MIXING. WITH
MINIMUMS CLOSE TO 32 ACROSS THE NORTH FEEL THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST FROST POTENTIAL. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN LOWER AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY. OVERALL WITH SOME MIXING...EARLY SUNRISE AND MOIST
GROUND MOST AREAS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WIDESPREAD FROST.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA SATURDAY FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SOLAR.
COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BLO
AVERAGE.

WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
MINIMIZE ANY FROST THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR NE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
ALL MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH PLACEMENT OF SHOWER
POTENTIAL. WEAK WARM ADVECTION HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL HAVE FINAL SAY
ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WHICH STILL MEANS AN ACTIVE PERIOD WEATHER WISE. HARD TO
NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT WHEN THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA. ONLY THING OF NOTE IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED
ITS SFC LOW POSITION FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...TRACKING IT FROM
NEAR KFSD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT PCPN CHANCES
EVERY SINGLE DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS IT IS HARD TO PICK OUT ANY
DRY PERIODS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE HOW FAST THE CLOUDS THIN OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS DYING DOWN IN THE EARLY EVENING. THEN SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES
AND N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON



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