Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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292
FXUS63 KFGF 241431
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
931 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Bumped up winds a bit in the northwestern counties for this
afternoon as we should get good mixing and speeds are already
around 15 kts. Will continue to keep some POPs in the north for
this afternoon as high res models have a fair amount of
development as a weak shortwave moves into the area.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

No changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A cold front was over the far eastern zones and will move out of the
area this morning. Some wrap around moisture is expected this
afternoon/evening over the northern zones. Enough cooling occurs
aloft today that the atmosphere becomes unstable this
afternoon/evening. Convective temps are in the mid/upper 70s in the
north with 1500+ j/kg of mucape. Also the water vapor loop indicated
a weak upper trough over southern ALTA moving southeast. Northwest
flow aloft is expected for Sun night.

Similar event expected for Mon afternoon/evening with similar
mucapes of 1500 j/kg however may not reach convective temps. Will
keep low pops for Mon afternoon/evening.

Upper level trough over the northern BC coast will move across
central Canada Mon night and will send a cold front into the
northern Red River Valley Tue night. Concurrently increasing low
level moisture will make for more unstable mucapes (2500 j/kg) on
Tue afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The majority of the long term period will be under a NW flow pattern
aloft that brings low POPs for middle and latter half of the
week...before a SW ridge sets up on Sunday and provides a break to
the active pattern.  Temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s
for the second half of the work week and increase into the 80s for
the weekend.  The long wave pattern changes to a SW flow pattern for
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Fog loop and surface obs indicate an IFR cig over FGN or the far
northeast corner of the area and farther east and north. Also an IFR
cig was located over central MAN. Otherwise the forecast area
was under a clear sky. Expect a cumulus field to develop over the
northeast zones by late morning and will continue through early
evening. Cigs should be around 40 to 50 hundred ft in cumulus field.
Elsewhere cirrus blowoff from storms over SD will spread into
southern ND this morning. Mostly VFR conditions expected today and
tonight.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Hoppes



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