Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131820
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1220 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WE WILL BE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD GET 2-4
INCHES IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHERN FA...WITH UP TO 5 INCHES
PERHAPS IN SOUTHEAST ND CLOSER TO STRONGER/SUSTAINED FGEN. THERE
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT SUSTAINED NEAR
20KT UNTIL AROUND 9Z OR SO. THERE WILL BE A DEMARCATION LINE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE VERY DRY AIR WILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SO DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
ADVISORY. WE WILL MONITOR THE NEED WITH BLOWING SNOW PERHAPS
BECOMING AN ISSUE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY IF WE GET AN INCH OR 2 OF
SNOW...SO WILL MENTION BLSN IN THE GRIDS HERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW EVENT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN SNOW POTENTIAL HOWEVER
TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH BEST SNOW POTENTIAL.

WINDS PRETTY MUCH CALM OR BLO 5KTS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER WILL
MAINTAIN WCHILL HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MOST AREAS BY
18Z. WILL ALSO SEE CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHICH WILL
ALSO HELP WITH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AFTER COLD START. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...POSSIBLE LOW TEENS OVER THE FAR WEST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. AS
STATED ABOVE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS NOW BRINGING -SN INTO
THE FAR WEST CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO THE VALLEY 03-06 TIMEFRAME.
06Z NAM CLIPS THE FAR SW WITH FAVORED MID-UPPER LEVEL QG-FGEN
SUPPORT. CURRENT SNOW ESTIMATES AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE FAR SW-S SO
WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. WITHIN VALLEY GUIDANCE HAS
LOWERED WINDS SPEEDS SLIGHTLY...AROUND 20KTS SO NOT CONFIDENT ON
THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH WIND AND FALLING SNOW.
WITH UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF ON ADVISORY WITHIN VALLEY BUT BASED ON
TIMING DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO MAKE FINAL
DECISION.

-SN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE VALLEY. WITH CLOUDS/WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES NOT NEARLY AS COLD. WITH WESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW MID LEVEL FLOW
RELAXES. A WEAK WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR SW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT AT THIS
POINT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON TUES...ALTHOUGH THE SFC
HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WED. 00Z GFS/ECMWF KEEP LIGHT SNOW
ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRIMARILY WEST OF THE AREA TUES/TUES
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK...AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEK...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF SFC/UPPER
AIR FEATURES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SE WINDS WILL FRESHEN (ALREADY 20KT AT KDVL) FROM KDVL THROUGH
VALLEY SITES BY LATE AFTN UNDER MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS. SWATH OF
LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET ON A TRACK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. REDUCED VSBY TO 1SM MOST LOCATIONS WITH
COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING TOWARD
30 KT.

MAY NEED TO LOWER VSBYS LATER ON AS ONSET OF PCPN DRAWS CLOSER BUT
1SM SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-
     053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ003-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB


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