Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THIS LATEST UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCT FOR
OBSERVATION TRENDS IN PAST COUPLE HOURS OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARDS MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES PUSHING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES
ACROSS AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE PLAINS.

WITH THIS SET UP FOR THE AREA...WILL BE KEEPING CWA PRECIP-FREE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE EXPECTING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE
THRU THE DAY AS RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ROCKIES. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDE AREAL COVERAGE
OF TRW FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDER
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT STRONG WAA TO
OCCUR INTO AREA. THIS WILL PUT 850/925 MB TEMPS +21C TO +25C/+30C TO
+35C RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE GOING FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AS A
RESULT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S...HAMPERED ONLY BY CLD
COVER FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLDS AROUND
SCT080-090 BKN150 AFT 00Z SUN. VCSH POSSIBLE AFT 03Z SUNDAY. WINDS
NEAR VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS BECM SOUTHERLY 5-15 KTS BY 14Z-15Z
THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM 17Z SAT-03Z SUN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN



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