Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 061127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER MAKER IS CLOSED OFF AND APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AT ANY LEVEL IN ADVANCE OF UPCOMING
SYSTEM.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE DOING WELL AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.
AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM WERE STARTING OUT BEST. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE SREF AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
SURFACE PATTERN. MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
WITH THE GFS/SREF/CANADIAN DOING THE BEST.

A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST DUE TO HUGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONS AND
RESULTING FRONTAL POSITION.

TODAY/TONIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER TODAY. HOWEVER THAT SHOULD NOT KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. AS A RESULT MADE LITTLE TO NO
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THE TREND ON POP/QPF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN BE FURTHER NORTH.
THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HANGING AROUND LONGER
THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA BEING FURTHER NORTH. NEW DATA SUPPORTS JUST
HAVING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER DURING THE EVENING. AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. VERY MILD MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE WINDS STAYING
UP DURING THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...NEWER DATA SUPPORTED SLOWING DOWN THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER CHANCES. THIS IS A RESULT OF OUR
INCOMING SYSTEM BEING SLOWER TO MOVE EAST AND CONSIDERING THE
PATTERN...THIS MAKES GOOD SENSE. SO AT THIS TIME HAVE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND LIGHT QPF.

NOW IS WHERE THE FORECAST STARTS TO BECOME UNCERTAIN BORDERING ON
PROBLEMATIC. DESPITE THE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THE INCOMING UPPER
LOW...HOW THEY HANDLE THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS AND RESULTING
LOWS DIFFERS DRAMATICALLY. IN GENERAL MOST OF THE MODELS ARE FURTHER
NORTH WITH FRONTAL POSITION. THE KEY TO ALL THIS IS IF THE PRIMARY
STAYS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR IF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT AS MENTIONED BY THE DAY
FORECASTER YESTERDAY.

THE NAM PROBABLY INITIALIZED THE WORST. THE NAM FOLLOWED BY THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE THE MODELS THAT ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH. GOING BY
THE JET POSITION AND 200 MB WAA TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE THE
SURFACE WILL SUPPORTED THE ECMWF AND SREF IN KEEPING A SOUTHERN
SURFACE LOW AS THE PREDOMINATE LOW. EVEN THE MODELS THAT WERE
FURTHER NORTH AT THE SURFACE HAD THE 200 MB WAA SUPPORT THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS. SO SIDED WITH THAT MORE.

IN ADDITION THE MODELS ARE NOT DEPICTING THE SURFACE MOISTURE VERY
WELL. SO WILL NOT HAVE A RICH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
USE. SO NOW TO GET BACK TO THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. GOING
BY THE STRONGER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LOW...THE DRY LINE NEAR/OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION AND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH.

MODELS ARE STILL PUTTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF...IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DO NOT MOVE IT MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.
ALSO A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME...ESPECIALLY THE EVENING. EVEN WITH THE LESS
MOISTURE THE STRONG AND DEEP LIFT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE NORTHEAST HALF HAVING THE HIGHEST
CHANCE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND GOOD LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE STORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. SINCE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS
GOOD...REMOVED THE MENTIONED OF HEAVY RAIN. LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY AND JET STILL
AROUND.

DID RAISE MAXES A LITTLE BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE FRONTAL POSITION AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVEMENT IS VERY SLOW DURING THE
DAY. IN FACT IT EITHER STOPS OR PULLS BACK TO THE WEST A LITTLE AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND ITS BASE AND MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
REMAINS NEAR OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL DRAPED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER THE POSITION OF THAT
BOUNDARY IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS COULD BE AFFECTED/CHANGED BY THE
MESOSCALE AFFECTS DUE TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD CHANCE
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THIS WILL ALL
EVOLVE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

THE UPPER LOW SET TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
BE OVER NEBRASKA BY EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND.
THIS RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MAINLY DRY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA MIDWEEK.

A SECOND SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...IT TRAVELS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A CLOSED LOW FORMING. SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...GENERATING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THINGS PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR KGLD...FROM
MID MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 28 KNOTS. LLWS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FOR KMCK...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 KNOT RANGE. LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BEGIN HERE DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE
SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER


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