Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260439
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy digging over the
southern Rockies and will be moving out over the central/southern
high Plains late this afternoon/early this evening. Strong cold
front currently stretches along the Kansas Turnpike and will
continue tracking southeast.

Storms are expected to develop along the front as it moves east of
the Turnpike. We currently remain capped over se KS and will
likely take strong convergence along the front to get storms to
pop. Still thinking that after 4pm and likely closer to 5-6pm
should the most likely time for initiation. Should be plenty of
instability and effective shear for severe storms with large hail
and damaging winds the main threats. Majority of convection
should be southeast of the forecast area by midnight with some
additional showers also possible further west over the remainder
of central and south central KS.

By 12z Wed, cold front will extend through the Ozark region with
only far SE KS still having a chance for a few storms with this
chance east of the area by early Wed afternoon. The bigger story
Wed will be much cooler temps with highs expected to be 10-15
degrees below normal with gusty nw winds. Will maintain some
patchy frost over central KS late Wed night into early Thu morning
as lows fall into the mid 30s.

Pattern will remain very active as yet another piece of energy
moves out of the central Rockies and into the Plains by Thu
afternoon. This will increase rain chances from west to east Thu
afternoon into Thu evening with much of the area at least getting
some light rain. Best chances for rain on Fri will be generally
along and north of I-70...closer to the better upper dynamics.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

More robust shortwave is expected to dig over the southern high
Plains Fri night into Sat morning. 850-700mb moisture transport
will ramp up with an extremely moist airmass over the southern
Plains. PW values will be approaching 2 inches across eastern OK
into the Ozark region where heavy rain and flooding will be the
main threat. Some of this may skirt far SE KS, but it appears the
bigger impacts will be east and south of our forecast area Fri
night through Sat night. Sunday, central and eastern KS will be
in the cold wrap around precip area of the departing system with
well below normal temps anticipated for Sun-Sun night. Should
finally see more seasonal temps by Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Post-frontal stratus will continue to fill in across
central/eastern Kansas overnight. MVFR should prevail for most of
the region, although the CNU terminal will likely experience at
least a few hours of IFR ceilings overnight. Scattered light
showers are expected overnight into midday Wednesday as the upper
trough pushes through the Central Plains. Clearing is expected to
occur from northwest to southeast during Wednesday, with stratus
last to exit the CNU terminal late in the afternoon. Northerly
winds gusting to 20-25 knots will prevail overnight into
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  57  39  61 /  40  20  10  30
Hutchinson      41  56  37  60 /  40  20  10  30
Newton          42  55  37  59 /  40  20  10  30
ElDorado        43  55  38  60 /  40  30  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   44  55  39  63 /  40  30  10  20
Russell         37  56  35  58 /  30  10   0  40
Great Bend      37  58  36  59 /  30  10   0  30
Salina          40  55  36  59 /  30  20  10  40
McPherson       40  56  36  59 /  40  20  10  30
Coffeyville     48  56  39  64 /  80  60  30  10
Chanute         46  54  39  62 /  80  50  30  20
Iola            46  53  38  62 /  80  50  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    46  55  39  63 /  80  50  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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