Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 232105
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

An upper ridge is situated over the western CONUS as a transient
clipper shortwave develops in the Northern Plains and is expected to
swiftly move across mid-America Tuesday evening into Wednesday. This
fast moving upper disturbance is expected to stay north of the CWA
as a moisture deficient airmass and associated high pressure at
the surface spread across the southwestern U.S. keeping Kansas
precip-free over the next several days.

Expect the warming trend in temperatures to continue through
Thursday as the upper ridge pattern becomes more zonal in nature
across Kansas. Resulting downslope flow from the west should
allow for increased thickness and sufficient warm air advection in
the area to push highs into the low to mid- 60s across central,
south central, and southeast Kansas by Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A cutoff upper low currently forming over central northern Mexico is
progged to intensify as it is pushed northeastward along and ahead
of an upper trough that is expected to rapidly move across the
northern Plains this weekend. As the pressure gradient tightens
Thursday and Friday, surface winds should pick up resulting in
breezy southwesterly winds both days. The main frontal system is
expected to quickly push through the area late Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Though most of central Kansas should stay
dry, 850mb moisture transport vectors from the southwest and pockets
of sufficient moisture flux divergence seem to indicate that
areas of southeast Kansas and the Flint Hills could see a decent
shot at some rain showers transitioning over to light snow in
some areas as the temperature drops overnight. At this time, no
major impacts are expected.

Behind the front, expect clearing skies and winds switching to a
more northwesterly direction, which should cool temperatures back
down slightly heading into Saturday and Sunday before another
gradual warmup to begin the work week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Very high grassland fire danger is expected across central, south
central, and southeast Kansas on Thursday, with some areas
possibly reaching the extreme category. Temperatures are expected
to be well above normal (low to mid 60s). When combined with cured
grasses, gusty winds, and low relative humidity, this could cause
some fire concerns. Outdoor burning on Thursday is strongly
discouraged. In addition, some areas of central Kansas and along
the Flint Hills could also see very high grassland fire danger on
Friday ahead of the frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    24  54  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      23  54  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          23  52  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        24  52  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   24  54  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         20  55  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      20  55  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          23  52  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       21  53  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     25  54  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         25  52  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            25  52  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    25  53  33  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...TAV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.