Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 110004
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
604 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 403 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Forecast Highlight: Next Arctic surge still scheduled to arrive
Tue Night & put us in the freezer until Fri Morning.

This Evening-Sunday Night:
Twin sfc lows, one centered over Northern WY & the other centered
over Eastern CO have forced the large but weakening high pressure
centered east across the Appalachians. As the sfc drifts SE to the
OK/TX Panhandles richer lower-deck moisture will surge NE from TX
to the KS/MO border. As the sfc lows begin to move more easterly,
a cold front will push SE across most of KS. Prior to the front`s
arrival areas of drizzle will develop across Southeast KS as very
low Stratus surges NE across most of KS. The rapidly moistening
southerly winds would result in a much warmer night, but as the
cold front crosses Southeast KS late Sun Afternoon, the NW-SE
temperature gradient would sharpen. Sun Night will much colder as
the next high pressure center (which won`t be nearly as strong as
its predecessor) punches SE across the Northern & Central Plains.

Mon-Tue Night:
With deep, fast westerly flow, the sfc high would sprint east and
weaken as it crosses the Ohio Valley Mon Afternoon as the next sfc
trof pushes SE into Western KS. The resulting S-SW flow will
produce one more somewhat balmy day on Mon, but Mon Night the next
& much stronger cold front is set to surge SE across KS as an
intense polar vortex surges east across Central Canada. This would
enable Arctic air to invade the neighborhood Tue & Tue Night. No
snow will accompany the front as moisture is lacking.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Wed-Thu Night:
The Arctic airmass will dominate the neighborhood as the strong sfc
high moves E/SE from the Dakotas to the Appalachians.

Next Weekend:
As the sfc high crosses the mid/northern Atlantic Coast, an intense
sfc cyclone will practically explode over the Western Plains. As
the cyclone pushes SE, the next, strong cold front will move SE Fri
& Fri Night. With a sharp temperature gradient setting up, a wide
range of high temperatures is certain with South-Central &
Southeast KS perhaps reaching the lower 50s. Stay tuned. Fri Night
and Sat may be nasty with widespread light snow coupling with
strong Northerly winds. These periods will be watched closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Main hazards: IFR/LIFR stratus/fog/drizzle development late
tonight into Sunday morning across eastern Kansas.

Southerly winds will allow low-level moisture advection from the
Southern Plains northward into eastern Kansas late tonight into
early Sunday morning. The relatively shallow-moisture profiles,
strong low-mid level isentropic lift and dry mid-layer, will allow
for IFR stratus/fog/drizzle development by the early morning
hours. The drizzle appears most likely at ICT and CNU terminals,
but moisture advection fog is possible in central Kansas
overnight. The drizzle should linger Sunday morning along/east of
the Kansas Turnpike, before a cold front pushes through the
region, allowing southerly winds to become northerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  47  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      33  44  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          34  43  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        36  47  24  46 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   38  50  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         26  40  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      28  42  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          31  42  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       32  43  21  48 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     39  54  26  47 /  10  30   0   0
Chanute         36  50  24  45 /  10  20   0   0
Iola            35  49  23  44 /  10  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    39  52  26  46 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC



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