Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Gusty southwesterly
winds are expected this afternoon, with gusts to around 25-35kt
areawide. Gusts will diminish after sunset this evening with
speeds under 12kt overnight, before ramping up again toward the
end of the forecast period. Caution: The gusty winds are expected
to result in turbulence near mountain regions, and hazardous
flying conditions for low flying light aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Southern stream upper trough moving over Srn CA/Baja later tonight
will pass over AZ early Tuesday and move over the region Tuesday
evening.  This will create warm and windy conditions for the region
Tuesday. A weak flat ridge will build in from the west as the
trough exits the area.

A deep surface low over Ern CO and a surface trough extending down
across the Panhandle to the Rio Grande will result in a W/SW wind
today. Southwest flow aloft will increase today ahead of the
approaching upper trough with 700mb wind in the 40 to 50kt range.
This higher wind will mix down to the surface by this afternoon. A
High Wind Warning is in effect today for the Guadalupe Mountains
with a Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains. However Tuesday
looking like the really windy day. With the upper trough nearing
the region 700mb wind in the 50-60kt range will move over the
western and perhaps the northern portion of the area. A High Wind
Watch is in effect Tuesday for the western CWA as looks like not
just the mountains but also the adjacent plains may reach high
wind criteria. Have added central and northern Lea Co to the watch
Tuesday. A cold front will blow through early Wednesday with a
north wind bringing much cooler air to the region.

Will have lots of clouds over the area again today and tonight as
Pacific moisture streams over the region but still expecting
temperatures to be warmer today. Highs today should climb into
the 70s across most of the region today with 80s along and south
of the Pecos River. Similar but slightly warmer readings expected
Tuesday. The front Wednesday will knock highs down into the 60s
with lows in the 30s.

FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum RH/s ranging from 10 to 15 percent will be common across
most areas today however critical fire weather conditions look to
mainly occur across the Southeast New Mexico Plains and portions of
the Upper Trans Pecos with 20 foot winds above critical speeds for
3+ hours. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for this
area through this afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns can be
expected elsewhere as the timing of the higher wind speeds don`t
seem to match up with the timing of critical RH/s. Our attention
then turns to Tuesday with a very windy day expected areawide. High
temperatures look to be a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal and min
RH/s should drop to near 10 percent no problem. With very windy
conditions in place, widespread critical fire weather conditions are
expected and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Otherwise, a cold
front arrives Wednesday, shifting winds to the north but speeds
should be fairly light. Dry conditions persist through the end of
the week however winds will remain light and fire weather concerns
will be low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  49  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  49  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         85  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  82  52  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 65  46  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  44  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  35  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  48  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         78  48  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  45  83  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Southeast
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
     Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$



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