Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KMAF 290747
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Weak mid level ridging across NM into Big Bend region late today and
the absence of sustained return low level flow will relegate moist
convective to areas s of the Pecos River, where SB-85h instability
is best. There is good agreement that high temps will be in 85-90
range today. Also there continues to be good indications that
strong tstms will develop w of Presidio-Candelaria Monday evening
in assocn with a shrtwv trof. Low level wind field will be
favorable for warm/moist inflow. We do think that storms will
eventually cross the Rio Grande, ~06Z/30, but not sure how far e
they will make it? NAM12 decreases storms by 09Z and GFS after
09Z. Presidio, w Jeff Davis, w Brewster Counties will have the
highest PoPs. Low end responses are also possible on the Rio
Grande from Candelaria-Presidio? The flow is weak and aforementioned
shrtwv trof may linger across the Trans Pecos and with daytime
heating scattered tstms are favored from GDP-Chisos Mtns Tue PM.
Farther e into the PB SB instability does increase and low order
PoPs are warranted. A stronger shrtwv trof (still slow moving)
will near the far wrn CWFA early Wed AM and is likely to result in
early morning tstms across the Trans Pecos, possibly farther e
into the PB? Timing of shrtwv trof will be important, it seems a
little earlier than 24hrs ago, and could be the difference in
aligning with daytime heating and greater coverage of tstms. NAM12
is a little shy with PoPs on Wed, at least e of the Pecos River.
There is pretty good signals in mid level OMEGA fields that there
will be lift in assocn with said shrtwv trof. Bulk shear still
looks to mostly be around 20KTs or less with CAPES around
1500-2000 J/KG and with PW anomalys still +1 to 2 strong storms
with heavy rain are a concern. 1-3 day QPFs are probably on the
light side, especially across the Trans Pecos and may eventually
be increased? Storms could linger into the Wed evening, moreso
across the NW-N CWFA in closer proximity to shrtwv trof. By Thur
PM ern 1/3 or so of CWFA will be most favored as trof axis extends
s into that area, and there will probably still be enough low
level mstr for a few storms in the mtns. Drier air does move in on
Friday, but enough low level mstr for tstms from INVOF Davis Mtns
into srn PB and Lower Trans Pecos, scattered PoPs confined to
Lower Trans Pecos Saturday. Mid level ridging increase Sunday-
Monday with warmer temps returning by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  63  86  65 /  10   0  20  30
Carlsbad                       88  62  86  63 /  10  20  20  50
Dryden                         85  67  84  67 /  40  20  30  50
Fort Stockton                  87  65  85  64 /  20  10  30  60
Guadalupe Pass                 80  60  79  58 /  10  30  40  50
Hobbs                          85  59  83  60 /   0  10  20  40
Marfa                          81  55  79  57 /  30  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           88  64  86  64 /  10   0  20  40
Odessa                         87  64  85  64 /  10   0  20  40
Wink                           89  63  87  65 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.