Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 231710
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1110 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds expected this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft, courtesy
of a highly-amplified ridge centered just over the western CONUS.
off the coast of Baja CA.  An upper trough is making landfall on
B.C., and as the rest of it comes onshore further south over the
next 48 hrs, it will dampen the ridge somewhat and transition flow
aloft to NW.  Thicknesses will continue to increase thru Friday,
when afternoon temps will soar into the 80s for much of the FA.
Unfortunately, as it traverses into the interior CONUS, the PacNW
trough will drop a cold front into the region Friday night, knocking
temps down around 10 deg F Sat afternoon. The upper ridge then
builds east into Mexico, w/temps rising to the upr 70s/lwr 80s by
Monday afternoon, but a secondary trough will move thru the central
CONUS Mon night/Tue, sending a secondary front into the area Tue.
This front still looks to be much stronger than the first, taking
temps down to below-normal by Wed afternoon.  GFS Chiclets still
hint at potential fire wx concerns for Tue, but has backed off
slightly from yesterday`s run.  Wed, temps come back up to around
normal.  Otherwise, return flow remains paltry, as does moisture
return, and grids stay dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  43  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  42  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  44  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  50  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  36  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  44  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  45  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  40  83  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10



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