Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231152
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
552 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Wrap around moisture around the surface low to our north will
keep clouds across across our region much of the day. Models show
the low continuing to move off to the northeast, so there should
be a slow decrease in our clouds from southwest to northeast this
afternoon into this evening. The tight pressure gradient around
the low should keep our winds up much of the day as they
gradually turn from west to northwest. Wind speeds of 12 to 20
mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be common this morning,
gradually slackening this afternoon. Clouds and colder air
filtering into the region will only give us high temperatures in
the 40 to 45 degree range, which is close to seasonal normals.
Lows tonight will drop into the middle 20s.

Models show high pressure over east Texas at midday Wednesday.
This high will slide east through Thursday night, which will shift
our winds back to the southwest to south Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures will moderate a little Wednesday with
plenty of sunshine, but a more significant warm can be expected
Thursday into Thursday night with the southerly winds. Highs by
Thursday will be in the lower to middle 50s, with lows Thursday
night in the middle 30s, putting us around 10 degrees above
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Ridging over the WFO PAH forecast area will on the waning end at the
beginning of the extended forecast period. The flow from the western
Gulf of Mexico (Texas Coast) will be opening up at this time, with a
small shortwave moving over Missouri during the day on Friday,
advecting the gulf moisture into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

A broader trough will slowly dig southeast from the Upper Midwest,
as well as the Northern and Central Plains Friday night, providing a
very broad zone of warm air advection/isentropic lift and sharpening
the baroclinic zone over the NW of Missouri. This will generate
light showers along and ahead of a cold front bisecting Missouri
from southwest to northeast Friday night. With the Gulf of Mexico
open, and the cold front slowly working east through the WFO PAH
forecast area, scattered showers will dominate the forecast
throughout the day on Saturday.

The broad trough axis will sharpen Saturday night, shifting the
baroclinic zone/frontal zone east Sunday, exiting the area by Sunday
afternoon.  There may be enough cold air aloft behind the cold front
to generate a very brief wintry mix late Saturday night. Given the
short forecast duration of the wintry mix, little impact is expected
at this point in the forecast.

Minor temperature adjustments were made within the WFO PAH forecast
boundaries, with an emphasis toward the ECMWF, Canadian, NAM-WRF, and
the EKD MOS output, generally warming temperatures slightly through
the extended forecast period.

Based on model runs late last week into early this week, the main
precipitation signal for this forecast period seems to be settling
on Saturday. Ridging will return again late Sunday drying out the
area and returning temperatures to near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Gusty west/northwest winds at all TAF sites today at 15 kts
gusting to 25 kts, dropping off around 00z to 4-7 kts. Low VFR
cigs will drop to MVFR this morning, improving back to VFR at
KCGI/KPAH around 20z, and at KEVV/KOWB around 01z. Cigs expected
to become SCT at KCGI/KPAH around 02z, with low VFR cigs
persisting at KEVV/KOWB until toward the end of the TAF period. No
vsby restrictions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RST



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