Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 100154

854 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Issued at 853 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Current forecast appears to be on trend. Will continue to monitor
for any breaks in the clouds working southward from Indiana.
Temperatures and winds remain in forecast tolerance at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 502 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

A digging mid level shrtwv, split off from a parent nrn stream
shrtwv, will continue moving sewd through the PAH forecast area
tonight. Its sfc reflection, a cold front, is through the region
now, and what little instability is left near the AR/TN borders
will quickly wane by late afternoon. Thus, lingering showers are
in the near-term forecast, with the highest PoPs in the sern

The fact that the shrtwv is now progged to dig/strengthen
tonight, and eventually become a closed low over the Carolinas,
led to more pessimistic timing for clearing of clouds from nw to
se. By mid-morning Sat, the more solid coverage should be gone,
though there may be some scattered clouds in the east into the
afternoon. The pcpn forecast was adjust slightly, but all
measurable pcpn should be out of even the srn Pennyrile region by
midnight tonight.

Temps will be on the cool side through the weekend, rebounding to
more comfortable levels by Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Good agreement among the forecast models yields relatively high
confidence in the long term portion of the forecast. The passage of
shortwave energy and a cold front should result in an increase in
cloud cover on Monday. Moisture will be limited ahead of this front,
so while a few sprinkles or brief showers cannot be entirely ruled
out, most locations will probably remain on the dry side.

The prevailing flow pattern throughout the week will be from the
northwest with upper level ridging over the southwestern U.S. and
troughing in the east. Behind the Monday frontal passage, a series
of dry frontal passages will take place--the next on Wednesday and
the other Thursday or Thursday night. Given the lack of return Gulf
moisture, no precipitation is expected with either of these fronts.

Temperatures through the week will oscillate up and down with each
frontal passage, but highs should range through the 70s during much
of the period. Lows are forecast in the upper 40s to lower 50s.


Issued at 502 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Post frontal MVFR decks will move in soon and linger thru early
evening. As back edge of clouds works across FA tonight, MVFR
decks may yield to Low VFR cigs, but persist thru much of nite,
clearing late tonight or early tmrw. Winds will persist out of the




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