Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301945
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Upper level high pressure over our region that has been bringing
all of the hot and humid conditions lately will finally be forced
sw into the Southern Plains during the short term as a mid lvl
short wave digs southeast from the Midwest region on Wednesday.
This mid level disturbance may force some scattered thunderstorm
activity Wednesday...esp during the heat of the day. Best chances
will lie over northern/western counties and will dwindle as one
heads southeast into the southern Pennyrile region of western KY.

Surface high pressure will push into the forecast area behind
this disturbance Wednesday night, and esp on Thursday into
Thursday night. This will supply a refreshing change to much
cooler and drier conditions over all of the forecast region.
Maximum temperatures by Thursday will only make it to near 80 or
the lower 80s. Low temps by Thursday night are expected to dip
into the mid 50s to near 60 most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

An extended period of dry weather will stretch through the holiday
weekend and early next week. Low humidity and pleasant temperatures
will moderate as the weekend goes on, but heat indices will not
return to oppressive levels.

Friday and Friday night will feature very dry and cooler conditions
as the 850 mb thermal trough crosses our region. 850 mb temps around
12 Celsius on Friday continue to support forecast highs only near
80. Northeast winds will bring sharply lower dew points in the 50s.
Overnight lows Friday night will be in the 50s in most areas. Little
if any cloudiness is expected as subsidence increases on the back
side of an intensifying storm near the Carolina coast.

The models have trended toward a higher amplitude, less progressive
pattern for the weekend and early next week. The 12z gfs/ecmwf and
gefs indicate the tropical system currently over the Gulf of Mexico
will stall as it deepens just off the East Coast by Labor Day. This
will result in a sharper and more pronounced 500 mb ridge over the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The ridge will become nearly stationary
as a result of the blocking East Coast storm. For our local area,
this means increasing confidence that dry conditions will continue
past Labor Day. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s with lows
in the upper 60s from Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Upper level high pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions
with little chc of precip at the TAF sites until possibly the
very end of the 18Z TAF period. Will need to monitor for patchy
IFR fog 08Z-12Z, esp at KCGI and KPAH.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...GM



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