Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 031941
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
241 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS.

ACCORDING TO A COUPLE OF SHORT RANGE MODELS (HRR,RAP13) THE SMALL
MCS/MCV TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN H5 RIDGE SHOULD DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE REACHING THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. AS A RESULT...FOR NOW
WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
AND WILL ADD POPS IF CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

SAID H5 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
STARTING TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THAT PERIOD ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
BE DEFLECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST...
NORTH...AND EAST OF OUR CWA.

STARTING FRIDAY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO SPILL OVER THE RECEDING RIDGE AND
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK
TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS STARTING THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL BE WEAK...ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WEAK SYSTEMS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE DETAILS... ON SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED
WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND
VEER INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S...ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE VERY
LOW DUE TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW.

ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RAMP UP INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS A VERY WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION.
USING A MODEL BLEND YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS PRETTY MUCH WIPE OUT THE
FRONT...LEAVING OUR REGION IN A VERY LIGHT FLOW PATTERN WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM/MOIST...AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN ONE
OR MORE IMPULSES THAT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION EITHER
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE/CLOUDS
HAVING A HARD TIME CLEARING/MIXING OUT...ESPECIALLY AT KCGI/KOWB
WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED. THINK THEY WILL
BECOME VFR BY 21Z. WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM OR LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST (AOB 5 KNOTS).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...MY


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