Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 310701
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
201 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Daily storm chances continue unabated, as troffy nwlys aloft
continue through the course of the short term forecast, with
evolution of synoptic flow pattern transition between falling
heights east and rising heights west and PAH FA sandwiched
between.

Apparent temps will be on the rise during the work week, as
ridging heights start to win out and surface temps/dew points
climb a few degrees. Triple digit heat index will be approached or
exceeded each pm (Mon-Tue).

Main hazard from daily storms will be locally heavy rain, though
isolated collapsing storm wind or peak core hail cannot be ruled
out, per usual. Pre dawn patchy fog also will be a nightly
possibility.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

As we have seen through the summer, the main synoptic feature will
be the persistent 500 mb subtropical ridge that has oscillated
eastward from the Plains and then back westward at times. The ridge
will expand eastward during this coming week, and it will be
centered almost directly over the Lower Ohio Valley late in the
workweek. The ridge will likely begin a slow contraction on
Saturday. The result will be rather hot and humid conditions, along
with mainly diurnal chances of convection.

In many summers, a subtropical ridge centered over the Lower Ohio or
Tennessee Valleys would suppress convection almost entirely.
However, this has not been the case this summer. Even though we are
approaching our climatologically driest time of year, there has been
abundant rainfall in the vicinity of the ridge. When in doubt, the
best bet seems to be an inclusion of thunderstorms in the forecast.
Despite the apparent lack of forcing at lower and upper levels, pops
in the 20 to 30 percent range will be included each day. There
should be a decrease in convection each night given the lack of
forcing to sustain the activity.

A result of the frequent convection this summer has been suppressed
daytime temps and elevated surface dew points/warmer overnight lows.
The ecmwf high temps have had a warm bias during recent heat waves
in July, and this looks to be the case again this week. The forecast
will continue to lean toward the slightly lower gfs temps, which are
mainly in the lower 90s each day. Forecast dew points will be in the
upper 70s at times, especially Wednesday and Thursday. The result
will be heat indices peaking near or above 105 Wed through Friday.

As the upper ridge begins to contract Saturday, a weak frontal
boundary or convective outflow should move south into our region.
The increase in cloudiness and/or precipitation should suppress
temps and heat indices on Saturday.&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Will use mainly a persistence forecast. MVFR fog potential again
during the pre dawn hours, maybe lower IFR at climo favored KCGI.
Low confidence for possible low MVFR/possibly IFR stratus forming
toward dawn. Afterward, sct-bkn cu bases and vicinity showers or
storms may impact with associated cig/vsby restrictions later
during peak heating hours.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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