National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KPAH 252326
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

UPDATED THE PUBLIC GRIDS AN HOUR AGO TO PUSH BACK ALL POPS TO LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE AND 18Z NAM AND
GFS INDICATE THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE TONIGHT IF
NOT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND
MORE SPECIFICALLY SOUTHWEST INDIANA. GIVEN THE DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION AND WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SHOWERS THAT TRIED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED IF THE ENTIRE AREA STAYS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES MAINLY WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION TONIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAK MID LVL SHORTWAVES WILL SHOOT SE ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY UP ALONG THE I 64
CORRIDOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY VARY SUNDAY FROM THE 70S NORTH OF THE
FRONT...TO THE 80S ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED. ALL AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE THE 80S ON MEMORIAL DAY
AS THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND TAKES
MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

ODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAINLY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL HOLD OFF PRECIP JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON AND OFF LATE IN
THE WEEK OVER SE MO BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS TYPICAL
OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS TO HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF LIGHT
PRECIP. NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING
EAST OF INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PHASING
WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE HEARTLAND. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL DAY 8. WILL HOLD OFF AND
WATCH FOR CONTINUITY SINCE TOMORROWS FORECAST WILL REACH INTO DAY 8.
THEN WE WILL SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TIMING BACK
ANOTHER 24 HOURS WHICH IS ALSO A COMMON BIAS OF THE MODELS IN
GENERAL. HOWEVER IF THEY HOLD FIRM MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRO OF
POPS NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THIS COMING WEEK...EXPECT A RAPID
WARM UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. THIS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE FORECAST IS VFR WITH EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL BELOW 10KTS
AT ALL SITES. A STEADY STREAM OF CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND SOME CU ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
KEVV...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KOWB...WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE
SHOWER/STORM TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SOME PERIODIC MID-
LEVEL CEILINGS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS