Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 010542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DECK ACROSS CKB DRIFTING SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH FOG
FORMATION ALONG RIVER VALLEYS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
730 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...AS CLOUD COVER/CU DISSIPATING
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR
THE N MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH WHERE MORE OF A SCATTERED
VARIETY IS IN THE CARDS. ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET...WITH CU
FIELD TO FOLLOW. THIS SETS UP A MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
FLOW...A RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH BEST SHOT AT SEEING A
POPCORN SHRA/TSRA BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH. TEMPS LOOK
TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL
DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MOST SITES DURING
PREDAWN HOURS. HTS SEEMS THE FIRST ONE TO FOG ALREADY IN MVFR
VISIBILITIES UNDER FOG. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DECK ACROSS CKB SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS
COULD MOVE OVER EKN PREVENTING OR DELAYING FOG FORMATION THERE.

FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DIURNAL CU AND ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 02Z
WEDNESDAY...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHERE EXACTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP...MORE
LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY DISSIPATING AFTER
SUNSET.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 09/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...ARJ



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