Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 190625
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
125 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front lifts through this morning with rain. Cold front
midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end
of the week, with significant rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 AM Monday...

A warm front is making its way through the coal fields, and will
continue lifting northward through this morning. Adjusted POPs a
bit slower than previous forecast and high res models with
radar just showing echos making it to the Tug Valley now.
However do have some concern that things will accelerate
northward, so plan to go through POPs again in a couple hours
when radar gives a bit more to latch onto.

For now, have likely rain lifting northward, with the exception
of keeping chance wording across the western slope downslope
area with E to SE low level flow.

Temperature wise, have non-diurnal temperatures taking over in
the next couple hours with a slow warming trend through sunrise.
Did not make any significant changes to high/low for today and
tonight with a very mild airmass moving in behind the warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Bulk of precipitation to start the period to our north, as
upper heights build across the eastern U.S. Good southerly flow
and building heights across the region will result in
temperatures well above normal on Tuesday, with some lowland
locations topping out in the lower 80s. Upper ridge breaks down
by Wednesday, as a cold front approaches the area. Showers and
thunderstorms look likely on Wednesday, with additional rain
expected on Thursday, as frontal boundary stalls out across the
region, and a wave moves along the front, enhancing
precipitation. Heaviest rain during this period looks to be
across southeast Ohio, with a good inch or so of rain expected.
This could lead to rises on area creeks and streams once again,
particularly across southeast Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM Monday...

A series of low pressure systems, with heavy rainfall potential
are expected Friday through the weekend. Models are still
continuing to hit the heaviest precipitation axis across the
Ohio River region, and this could lead to additional flooding
issues both on area creeks and streams, and main stem rivers,
including the Ohio. Have elected to highlight flooding
potential into the HWO for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Monday...

A warm front is currently lifting through the coal fields and
will continue northward through early this morning. Expect MVFR
ceilings to develop at most TAF sites -- with exception of CRW
and CKB where downslope effect should keep clouds a bit higher.
Will also see some light rain moving northward through the
forecast area, only included restrictions in this at BKW. Winds
will gradually pick up and become S to SW for today. Did include
some low level wind shear this morning at the lowland sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with the warm front could be
lower than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 02/19/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ


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