Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 051048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
OLD W TO E ORIENTED FRONT STILL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SWD THROUGH
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SAILS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY COMPARED WITH TUE
EVEN WITH A BREAK IN THE HIGH CLOUDS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT.

KEPT THE SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER SW
VA...NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT...THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE SRN EDGE OF WV TONIGHT...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW APPROACH FROM THE W.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS SW VIRGINIA AND
ALONG THE TUG FORK TONIGHT,,,THE RAIN POSSIBLY GETTING AS FAR N AS
HTS-CRW BY DAWN THU. ALSO MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
TONIGHT OVER SW VIRGINIA...AGAIN ALONG/S OF THE FRONT.

BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS TODAY. LOWS
TONIGHT REFLECTED A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND WERE ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. NAM AND
GFS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUN/PATH...KEEPING SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN MOST ZONES MOSTLY
DRY DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE
NORTHERLY PATH WITH THE LOW...THUS KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH/SOUTHEAST OHIO.

DECIDED TO DO SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...KEPT LIKELY/DEF POPS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH...AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. STILL
NOT SURE THAT ANY SORT OF WATER HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED...AS
SYSTEM/STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG WELL...AND WITH RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...NOT THAT WORRIED AT THIS POINT. ALSO...WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYSTEM...NOT SURE ANY HEADLINES ARE
WARRANTED YET EITHER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD INCH OR MORE QPF MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH 1.5 OR MORE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS WEEKEND
AMID A RELATIVELY WNW FLOW ALOFT. PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER REAMPLIFICATION OF MEAN TROF.
GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU AND CIRRUS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY N OF
THE AREA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THAT
SYSTEM...WITH ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW CENTER...APPROACHES. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT VALLEY FOG FROM FORMING SAVE FOR MVFR
MIST EKN /TYGART VALLEY/.

RAIN WILL BE CLOSE BY SRN SITES HTS-CRW-BKW AS 12Z THU
APPROACHES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW THIS PERIOD MAY BECOME LIGHT W FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT W TO NW...BECOMING
LIGHT S TOWARD 12Z THU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF MVFR MIST POSSIBLE OUT OF THE GATE
ACROSS NRN SITES PKB-CKB=-EKN AS HIGH CLOUD HAS THINNED. EXTENT OF
MORNING MVFR STRATOCU SRN SITES HTS-CRW-BKW MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 08/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JS/30
AVIATION...JSH/TRM


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