Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 271910
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
310 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints on
the increase through the end of the week. Cold front late
Saturday/Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Models continue to settle Canadian high pressure directly over
the area tonight, allowing for clear skies after some afternoon
cumulus clouds, and near calm winds. This will bring ideal
radiational cooling conditions tonight. Little change to
previous thinking concerning low temperatures tonight, which
remain close to but just above record values in the major
metropolitan areas. However, record lows may be reached in the more
protected valleys by dawn Wednesday. These lows we have
forecast are actually on the low side of the vast majority of
guidance, but cannot neglect the ideal cooling scenario. In
addition, despite the dry air in place, there will likely be
some river valley fog later tonight, mainly at CRW and EKN. So,
will not get carried away with the fog given the dry air in
place.

For Wednesday, the high moves off to the east with a southerly
flow developing. Under abundant sunshine and still relatively
dry air, temperatures will rebound to around 80 degrees or so.

Forecast lows tonight are close to records in some cases:

LocationForecast low tonightRecordYear

CRW Charleston         51                    50         1988
HTS Huntington         51                    47         1915
PKB Parkerburg         50                    48         1988
EKN Elkins             43                    39         1988
BKW Beckley            49                    39         1955
CKB Clarksburg         49                    46         1927

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...

Slow retreat of Canadian high pressure off the coast will
translate into warming temperatures through the end of the week
with primarily dry weather, although the northwest zones will be
exposed to low chances from northern stream upper level energy.
No major changes to the forecast overall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

Shower and thunderstorm chances on the increase with an arriving
cold front and upper level trough spinning through the Great
Lakes. Without a clean passage of the upper low, with it only
rotating northward as oppose to eastward, the unsettled weather
will tend to linger with the front taking some time to finally
exit the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
19Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

This afternoon, scattered cu deck, 4-6 kft AGL. Northwest winds
generally 5 to 12 KTS this afternoon.

Clear, calm, cool night tonight as high pressure crosses, with
river vally fog forming that can go IFR, especially at EKN and
CRW 07Z-12Z.

For Wednesday, VFR mostly clear with winds becoming light
southerly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...



FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium tonight for fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley IFR fog later tonight may be
more widespread than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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