Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 010558
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...WITH VIRGA
TRANSITIONING TO MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A TRICKY AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG EDGE OF
PRECIP SHIELD THIS MORNING SO ISSUED SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE
AREA IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND SMALL IN SCALE AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. DUE TO THIS SMALL SCALE AND
ELUSIVE NATURE...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS NORTH. SO IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA IT WILL
BE SNOWING WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

WINDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
GETS CLOSER. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
OVER SE OHIO TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE  MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR NOW...A TRANSITION TO MVFR WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THAT WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO MVFR EARLIER.
THESE SITES WILL ALSO BE IN THE COOLER FROZEN PRECIPITATION AREA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY ON...DESCENDING TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND DEGREE
AND DURATION OF WORST CONDITIONS MAY VARY.  TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONS MAY ALSO VARY AND...WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP...FZRA
IS A POSSIBILITY PKB...CKB...EKN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING HTS AND CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 02/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN....LINGERING IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JW








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