Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 150801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST TODAY. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THIS MORNING.  AS A
A RESULT...DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN MANY LOCATIONS.  EXPECT
FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES....WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT.  EXPECT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.  PREVIOUS POP FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL TIMING.

GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV NUMBERS.  HOWEVER...TRENDED TOWARD
THE MET NUMBERS WHICH WERE COOLER FOR HIGHS TODAY.  MET/MAV NUMBERS
WERE CLOSE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND COULD NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE
MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

THEN...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE MID AND UPPER
PLAINS...EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND WV ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WEAK TO
CALM FLOW...WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AND COOLER AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK TO PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS. PATCHY DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EACH DAY.

USE A COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
REFLECT COOL NIGHTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD AFTERNOONS DUE
TO COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AT H850 ABOUT 9C THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS AT START OF
OF THIS TIME FRAME...WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE FIGURED FOR DAY
7/SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS THE DOOR SHUT FOR THE RETURN OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE.

WITH HIGH CENTER JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WILL TRY TO HAVE
MINIMUM TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCLUDED JUST THE
POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS E OF ELKINS.
FIGURING NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WITH A E AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 850 MBS...DID KEEP MORE CLOUDS
OVER OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MENTIONED A 20 SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR FRIDAY IN THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE.

WILL ACCEPT WPC MEDIUM RANGE AND START INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE
DAY 7 FEATURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE.

LOW STATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT AREAS... RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION...LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR DENSE FOG IN MANY AREAS.

EXPECT DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN MOST LOCATIONS AFT 08Z.

RIVER AND VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z...BUT MVFR TO LOW END
VFR STRATUS HANGS ON IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 09/15/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH







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