Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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245
FXUS61 KRLX 192350
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough brings showers and storms to northern areas
through this evening. High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong
cold front mid week. Cooler and drier for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 749 PM Saturday...

Updated forecast to fine tune the convective band across northern WV
and central Ohio for the next several hours.


As of 550 PM Saturday...

Updated forecast to better handle convection over central OH and
northern WV.


As of 300 PM Saturday...

Surface cold front and upper trough will pass just to our north
this afternoon and evening. Currently along the front showers
and thunderstorms have been kicking off across Northeast Ohio
and pushing into Western PA. Forecast soundings indicate drier
air in the midlevels across our Ohio Counties and Northern WV
and this will likely damper the convection in our area. However,
we are on the fringe of the better moisture and as the trough
pushes eastward this afternoon we will see an increase in lapse
rates to above 7C/Km and moisture may sag far enough south.
Although the strongest storms will be just off to our north,
there will be some potential for storms to reach severe limits
with damaging wind gusts being the main threat.

Storms will quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of
heating and high pressure pushes in. Clear skies and light winds
overnight will make for favorable conditions for dense valley
fog to develop. Tomorrow will be dry across the entire area with
seasonable temps and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Zonal upper level flow will hold in place for much of the
period. In the lower levels, a broad Bermuda-type high enhances
south-westerly flow gradually bringing in moisture and higher
temperatures. Lowland highs on Monday will be in the upper-80`s
to near 90, even accounting for the brief lapse in solar
insulation with the nearby Total Eclipse. Foggy mornings are
likely with increasing moisture and weak flow overall.

Isolated mountain showers are possible Monday afternoon with the
passage of a small disturbance in the otherwise zonal upper level
flow... the presence of moisture and forcing, albeit weak, doesn`t
allow for completely clear Eclipse conditions. Best viewing
conditions with this forecast issuance exist in the lowlands of
West Virginia and in eastern Kentucky. Tuesday, an approaching
low will introduce modest height falls aloft and greater
instability with growing shower and storm activity through the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday night
through midday Wednesday. Due to its overnight timing, overall
severe threat looks low for frontal passage though momentum
transfer could bring stronger gusts to the surface. Showers and
storms should taper off in the eastern mountains by late
afternoon. Behind the front, much cooler and drier conditions
will settle in with strong surface high pressure centered over
the Great Lakes region. Aloft, deep northwest flow originating
in Canada will keep weather generally clear with the caveat of
low-predictability in subtle disturbances that may drum up
isolated precipitation. Northwest flow aloft continues through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 550 PM Saturday...

An upper level trough will produce some showers and thunderstorms
across central Oh and northern WV this evening. Outside of any
storms, expect VFR conditions.

Late tonight, some river valley fog can be expected in the mountain
valleys. Fog may or may not form in river valleys west of the
mountains.

Once any fog burns off Sunday morning, VFR conditions can be
expected with a cumulus deck.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog
late tonight could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/20/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
Dense river valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...RPY



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