Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 160527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MILDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS UPDATE. WORKING ON THE
PACKAGE DUE IN A COUPLE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CLEARING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY.
BASED ON LOWER DEW POINTS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO GO CALM TOWARD
MORNING...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...A RELATIVELY NICE MID APRIL PERIOD.
925 MB FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD MAIN A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED
INVERSION IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.  EXPOSED RIDGES WILL BE MILDER.
STILL HAVE THOSE SHELTERED AREAS NEAR FREEZING. SINCE THOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL...AND TO AVOID THE DOUBLE HEADLINE
WITH THE CURRENT FREEZING WARNING FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY...WILL NOT POST
ANY FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

12Z NAM AND CMC BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE PULLING MOISTURE NNE UP THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY.  CONSENSUS WAS TO BE LESS
AGGRESSIVE...AND KEEP FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.  WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME 20/30 POPS INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY STILL TRICKY...MAY COME DOWN TO HOW
MUCH CIRRUS WE HAVE.  SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...YET
850 MB TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR
AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS CONTINUING TO ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY STILL
HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF VFR -SHSN AT EKN...BUT EXPECTING ALL
TERMINALS VFR BY 09Z.

WINDS WILL EASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME CONCERN OF BACK BUILDING OF THE STRATUS
IN CKB AND HOLDING IN EKN LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/16/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...21/KTB/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26








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