Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 260213
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1013 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the northwest on Sunday with showers and
storms. Another system Monday night into Tuesday, and again late in
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1010 PM Saturday...

Additional adjustments made to the POPs for Sunday, but the
overall story is the same, including the timing of onset.

As of 1220 PM Saturday...

Quiet weather continues in the near term through tonight. It
will remain very mild tonight as gradient winds pick up and a
variably cloudy sky remains. The near vertically stacked low
pressure currently over MS Valley will track into IL late
tonight, putting the region in good upper level divergence.
Closer to the surface, we expect a decaying band of storms will
make a run toward western zones just after daybreak. The
thinking is this should be void of thunder by the time it
arrives such that just some light showers are expected as it
pivots into the area. Behind this feature, there should be
some drying in the mid levels advecting in for the afternoon as
the stacked low makes a run MI with some recovery at the
surface. As heating is maximized in the afternoon, expect
showers and storms to develop in the afternoon. Some of these
could be on the strong side along and north of the OH River and
including northeast KY. Model soundings and NCAR ensembles
suggest good shear with some low level helicity. Lacking is much
in the way of instability given a fairly moist column. Having
said that...given the dynamics involved and the shear...we do
feel there is the potential for strong to possibly severe low
topped convection in the aforementioned locations. Given the
shear profile, there could also be some rotation in the more
robust convection, particularly across southeast OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM Friday...

Showers and possibly some thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as
a low pressure system moves north of the area. Models showing decent
low level shear Sunday evening, although CAPE is marginal. Could not
rule out a couple of severe storms in the western counties.

The region stays in the warm sector as this system moves off to the
northeast, allowing for mild weather to continue on Monday. Another
system will provide showers and possibly thunderstorms Monday night
and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 314 PM Friday...

Behind a weak cold front, slightly cooler but mild temperatures can
be expected for mid week. Models then show another system for the
end of the week. There are large differences in the timing and
placement of this system between the various models, leading to a
low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM Saturday...

Ceilings lower tonight, and southeasterly flows increase at the
surface and in the low levels as well as a cold front
approaches from the west. Showers and storms to commence after
12Z Sunday in waves through the day ahead of the front. Timing
will be critical, as onset of showers and storms may produce
brief IFR visibilities. In the warm sector, ceilings will tend
to stay VFR  until frontal passage beyond the TAF time.

Some storms in the area Sunday could push severe limits.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need TEMPO IFR in storms Sunday..

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 03/26/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR likely in showers and storms late Saturday night and
Sunday, possibly lingering as fog and low ceilings Sunday night as
the rain ends. Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26



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