Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 290726
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
326 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the
mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front
arrives thursday with showers and cooler air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mainly high clouds will continue to overspread the area into the
morning hours as the upper trof entrains some upper level moisture
from Bonnie. Models agree on breaking off a piece of the mid
level energy associated with Bonnie and sending it northward into
NC/VA today...keeping the greatest coverage of shra just to the
east of the mountains. Elected to cap pops in the 50ish range in
the Northern mountains for this reason. Elsewhere it is a bit
difficult to determine coverage of any shra/tsra today as the area
gets the squeeze play between the piece of Bonnie and the
approaching upper level trof. Near term hi res models continue to
generate some early morning shra along the mid level moisture
axis that has remained over KY/OH the past few days. This axis
shifts eastward across E KY/E OH this morning and into WV this
aftn as the s/w trof pivots into the upper OH Valley. Have raised
pops a bit from previous fcst across SE OH/NE KY/W WV midday to
early aftn as a result...still capping in the chance category.
With an abundance of high clouds overhead...thinking thunder
chances will be tempered...especially across the mountains. Highs
today should be a good 5 degrees lower with the mid/high level
clouds overhead.

For tonight the lagging cold front looks to enter the area with
little fanfare other than a wind shift and mainly aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With the remnants of the tropical system and its rich moisture
staying east of our area...the weak cool front forecast by the
models to move across Monday morning will not have much moisture
to work with. Lack of upper support and moisture...combined with
unfavorable time of day...will result in essentially a dry front
as it moves across Monday. Only in the mountains do we hang onto
very low pops Monday...where there may be some last minute heating
and slightly better moisture before the front moves across. Behind
the front...lack of cold advection and increased sunshine should
boost temperatures into the 80s Monday. Therafter...high pressure
will bring dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures
will continue in the 80s...as continued sunshine helps to boost
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced
by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain
under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and
Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over
elevations of 3000 feet and higher.

A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid
Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general
track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and
then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting
upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic
states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is
caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east
across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive
a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High clouds will continue to overspread the area from the SW into
the morning hours. As a result dense fog should be confined to the
Northern mountain valleys to include KEKN. Appears a brief window
of mainly MVFR fog for KPKB/KHTS before the high clouds thicken
by 09z. Did put a tempo IFR at KPKB until 08z given recent trends.

Isolate showers this morning are possible across E OH/NE KY as mid
level moisture axis shifts E with the approaching S/W trof.
Thinking they will remain W of KHTS/KPKB this morning before
regenerating with heating midday over the area. Elected to roll
with VCTS at aforementioned sites as well as KCRW for a few hours
this aftn. Bulk of the shra with loosely associated energy with
Bonnie will remain E of the mountains today...but still chances
high enough to give a VCSH mention at KEKN. Thunder chances look
minimal there.

The S/W trof pivots thru the area tonight with the lagging cold
front crossing overnight with little fanfare other than a wind
shift to NW...mainly aloft. There may be some dense river valley
fog forming late tonight should enough clearing take place.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of fog late tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30



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