Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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903
FXUS61 KRLX 240603
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather continues today with an isolated t-shower
possible. Weak front drops through Monday night lingering into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another hot and humid day expected. Have similar afternoon
temperatures, with slightly higher dewpoints when compared to
yesterday. This leads to another day with heat indices around 100,
so have opted to issue a heat advisory for most lowland counties.
Do need to include a bit of uncertainty with this...as MCS in
northwest Indiana could leave some cloud debris which could impact
temperatures a bit. Even more impactful would be if an area of
showers or thunderstorms survives or redevelops and crosses the
northern CWA. More on that below.

Speaking of that MCS...most models show it decaying through the
morning and not making it to CWA. That has been the overall trend
with MCSs the last few nights as well. However, models do indicate
that a weak spin associated with the decaying MCS will move
across the northern CWA later today. This could be enough to kick
off some isolated thundershowers especially with the heating of
the day. Keeping a close eye on hi-res models to see if an
increase in POPs would be warranted across the north. For now,
the hi-res guidance is keeping any more organized feature north
of the CWA across northern OH into PA.

Weak upper level disturbance continue flowing by tonight...so kept
some isolated POPs going across the northwestern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front along with an elongating s/w trof will approach
later on Monday with convection chances increasing across the
area. As this features approach...the upper ridge will flatten as
the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow
through the atmosphere. Torrential downpours with the potential
for a bit of training will have to be monitored for localized
flooding concerns but it would take over 2 inches in an hour to
cause issues.

With the front meandering thru at least the S zones Tuesday...have
kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours on
Tuesday. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday
with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon
shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday
with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon
shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This
front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low
approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the
afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains.

Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog beginning to develop in river valleys. Stayed fairly close to
the LAMP for fog through this morning, with dense fog in areas.
Fog should dissipate shortly after 12Z, with VFR expected today.
Isolated t-shower possible this afternoon, and should complex over
northern IN survive coverage could be higher.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 07/24/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ



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