Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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721
FXUS61 KRLX 070846
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
346 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOW 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS...RANGING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST MONDAY. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGS GOOD
CHANCES FOR PCPN...OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND PARTS OF WV SUNDAY NIGHT.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SNOW FORECAST TOOK QUITE A BIT OF TIME
THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE ARISEN OVERALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A LONG DURATION...SLOW ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT WILL
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO THE
FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SATURATION
WILL BE GOOD...AND THE FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE EVENT OVERALL. LOWLANDS HAVE SLIGHT INCREASES TO MORE OF A
2 TO 4 INCH POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN... THIS WILL BE OVER A 48 PLUS
HOUR TIME FRAME.

KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY...DROPPED THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MINOR LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TURN LIGHT S TODAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE TURNING BACK TO LIGHT SW OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY...TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS
OR WORST ALONG THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 02/07/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JW/MC
AVIATION...ARJ



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