Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 142309
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
409 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN HUDSON
BAY...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG UPPER JET HAS SUNK
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND HELPING TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN SD. SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THE
PLAINS...WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN
NOTED OVER THE BIG HORN MTS EARLIER THIS AFT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST BREAKS OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD AT THIS TIME. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 30S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ENDING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S AS SKIES REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THOUGH A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SPOTS...HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH
MIDDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SNOW LIKELY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER BLACK
HILLS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE FROM FAR NORTHEAST WY INTO
THE BLACK HILLS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS AGAIN EXPECTED OVER
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 307 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSES THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...
AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW -SHRA/-SHSN FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FLAT RIDGE THEN SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 70 ON THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LACK OF
SNOW COVER...WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND BREEZY WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK.

EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE KNOCKING
DOWN THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS.
ECMWF/GFS AND MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SHOW 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH A FEW -SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MRNG. NEXT
UPPER WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY MRNG WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS BECOMING
WDSPRD BY AFTN ALONG WITH -SHRA AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ELEVATION
-SHSN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON


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