Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 250030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Nov 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 25-Nov 27 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 25-Nov 27 2014

            Nov 25     Nov 26     Nov 27
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        1          1          1
06-09UT        1          1          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 25-Nov 27 2014

              Nov 25  Nov 26  Nov 27
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold for the next
two days (25-26 Nov) due to potential significant flare activity from
Regions 2209 and 2216.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 25-Nov 27 2014

              Nov 25        Nov 26        Nov 27
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackout,
during the period (25-27 Nov). Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the
most likely sources for significant flare production.



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