Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 290031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 29-Aug 31 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 29-Aug 31 2014

            Aug 29     Aug 30     Aug 31
00-03UT        4          2          3
03-06UT        3          2          3
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Quiet to active conditions are expected on day one (Aug 29) due to
waning CME effects combined with the influence of a positive-polarity CH
HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2014

              Aug 29  Aug 30  Aug 31
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2014

              Aug 29        Aug 30        Aug 31
R1-R2           20%           20%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance exists for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on days one-two (Aug 29-30) as Region 2146 rotates around the
west limb.


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