Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 28-Dec 30 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 28-Dec 30 2014

            Dec 28     Dec 29     Dec 30
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        1          2          2
09-12UT        1          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 28-Dec 30 2014

              Dec 28  Dec 29  Dec 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 28-Dec 30 2014

              Dec 28        Dec 29        Dec 30
R1-R2           25%           25%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for an R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts on 28-29 Dec, decreasing to a slight chance on 30 Dec as
Region 2249 rotates off the visible solar disk.


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