Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 270031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Aug 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 27-Aug 29 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 27-Aug 29 2016

            Aug 27     Aug 28     Aug 29
00-03UT        2          2          4
03-06UT        2          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          2          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          1          4
15-18UT        1          2          3
18-21UT        2          2          3
21-00UT        2          3          4

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three
(29 Aug) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2016

              Aug 27  Aug 28  Aug 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2016

              Aug 27        Aug 28        Aug 29
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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