Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-018-020>022-025>028-030-242015-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

...DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA IN GEORGIA...

                        ...SYNOPSIS...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN NOVEMBER 2016 OCCURRED ON THE
13TH WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCHES WEST TO AS MUCH 1.00
INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION.

BEFORE THAT RAIN EVENT...IT HAD BEEN 35 DAYS SINCE ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENT BACK IN OCTOBER WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MATTHEW. AS A RESULT...RAINFALL IS 1 TO
2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

SEE WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

                     ...SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

ON NOVEMBER 21 2012...THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION
REPORTED THAT THE KDBI INDEX IS ABOVE 500 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. VALUES ABOVE 600 WERE LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA HAS
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE REGION DURING NOVEMBER. THE SOUTH
CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTED THERE HAVE BEEN MORE FIRES
THAN NORMAL...WITH 118 FIRES DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. DURING
A NORMAL OCTOBER APPROXIMATELY 80 FIRES OCCUR.

IN OCTOBER 2016...THERE WERE 118 WILD FIRES WITH JUST OVER
332 ACRES BURNED. WILD FIRE OCCURRENCES WAS 65 PERCENT ABOVE THE
5 YEAR AVERAGE AND ACRES BURNED WAS 53 PERCENT ABOVE THE 5 YEAR
AVERAGE.

THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION...AS OF NOVEMBER
22ND..REPORTING 14 WILD FIRES ACROSS THE STATE. THE LARGEST AND
MOST ACTIVE FIRES ARE OCCURRING IN THE UPSTATE.

THE UNITED STATES CORPS OF ENGINEERS CONTINUES RELEASING
APPROXIMATELY 3600 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND...CFS...FROM LAKE
THURMOND DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN.
THE CORPS IS PLANNING TO MAINTAIN SIMILAR RELEASES THROUGH THE
END OF NOVEMBER TO CONSERVE THE WATER CURRENTLY IN THE SYSTEM.

VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF GEORGIA WITH MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA IN EXTREME...D3 TO
EXCEPTIONAL...D4 DROUGHT. EXTREME DROUGHT...D3 HAS EXPANDED INTO
THE NORTHERN CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA COUNTIES OF LINCOLN...
MCDUFFIE AND MCCORMICK. JUST EAST THE SEVERE DROUGHT...D2 HAS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO COLUMBIA COUNTY.

GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE GEORGIA DROUGHT.

                    ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON NOVEMBER 17 2016 FOR DATA
THROUGH DECEMBER 15 2016 SHOWED THAT EXTREME DROUGHT...D3
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN MAINLY
MCCORMICK AND EXTREME NORTHWEST EDGEFIELD COUNTY.

                          ...DETAILS...

D3...EXTREME DROUGHT...COVERED NEARLY ALL OF LINCOLN COUNTY AND
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF MCDUFFIE COUNTY. D3 DROUGHT ALSO
COVERED THE NORTHERN HALF OF MCCORMICK COUNTY.

D2...SEVERE DROUGHT COVERED NEARLY ALL OF MCDUFFIE COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLUMBIA COUNTY IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA OF GEORGIA. D2 COVERED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MCCORMICK
COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST EDGEFIELD COUNTY.

D1...MODERATE DROUGHT...COVERED SOUTHERN MCDUFFIE AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES ACROSS THE CSRA. THIS EXTENDED ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. THIS INCLUDES
THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA METROPOLITAN AREAS.

D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWCOUNTRY. THE ONLY PORTION OF THE STATE
NOT IN SOME FORM OF DROUGHT IS THE PEE DEE REGION AND GRAND
STRAND.

GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.

            ...SOUTH CAROLINA DROUGHT COMMITTEE...

THE SOUTH CAROLINA DROUGHT RESPONSE COMMITTEE MET ON OCTOBER
26 2016 AND UPGRADED MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT. AT THAT
TIME...OCONEE...PICKENS AND ANDERSON COUNTIES WERE DECLARED TO BE
IN SEVERE DROUGHT. FROM AIKEN NORTHWARD THROUGH FAIRFIELD AND INTO
YORK COUNTIES WERE IN MODERATE DROUGHT. A THIN SLIVER OF COUNTIES
FROM BARNWELL NORTHWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY WERE IN INCIPIENT
DROUGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST WERE IN NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE
COMMITTEE USES SEVERAL INDICATORS TO DETERMINE THEIR DROUGHT
STATUS OF WHICH THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR IS ONLY ONE.

                    ...GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...

THE GROUND WATER NETWORK MAINTAINED BY THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY WAS USED IN THIS REPORT. GROUND WATER LEVELS
FROM NOVEMBER 22 SHOWED THAT MOST WELL FELL SLIGHTLY...BUT THE
AIKEN WELL AND SUMTER WELL ROSE.

A HIGHER NUMBER MEANS A LOWER WATER TABLE AND THEREFORE LESS
GROUND WATER. A MINUS DIFFERENCE INDICATES LESS GROUND WATER.

AIKEN COUNTY - 430 WELL
NOVEMBER    03 2016  165.03 FEET
NOVEMBER    21 2016  162.34 FEET
DIFFERENCE        PLUS 2.69 FEET

MCCORMICK COUNTY - 52 BAKER CREEK STATE PARK WELL
NOVEMBER    03 2016   38.80 FEET
NOVEMBER    21 2016   39.22 FEET
DIFFERENCE       MINUS 0.42 FEET

SUMTER COUNTY - 335 WELL
NOVEMBER    03 2016   11.61 FEET
NOVEMBER    21 2016   11.60 FEET
DIFFERENCE        PLUS 0.01 FEET

KERSHAW COUNTY - 433 NEAR LIBERTY HILL
NOVEMBER    03 2016   53.77 FEET
NOVEMBER    21 2016   54.00 FEET
DIFFERENCE       MINUS 0.23 FEET

LANCASTER COUNTY - 497 WELL LANCASTER COUNTY AIRPORT
NOVEMBER    03 2016   31.45 FEET
NOVEMBER    21 2016   31.92 FEET
DIFFERENCE       MINUS 0.47 FEET

RICHMOND COUNTY - 30AA04 WELL
NOVEMBER    03 2016  135.82 FEET
NOVEMBER    21 2016  135.61 FEET
DIFFERENCE       MINUS 0.21 FEET

               ...RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

A SNAPSHOT OF ALL RANKED GAGES OF STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS ON
NOVEMBER 22 2016 SHOWS AROUND 60 PERCENT REPORTING FLOWS THAT ARE
LESS THAN THE 25 PERCENTILE RANGE.

OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS ENDING ON NOVEMBER 22 2016...THE SALUDA
RIVER BASIN...THE BROAD RIVER BASIN...THE WATEREE RIVER BASIN AND
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN CONTINUE TO BE IN MODERATE TO SEVERE
HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT. ONLY THE GREAT PEE DEE AND EDISTO RIVER BASINS
REMAIN IN NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS. SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT...LESS
THAN 5TH PERCENTILE RANGE...MODERATE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT...BETWEEN
6 AND 9 PERCENTILE RANGE AND BELOW NORMAL FLOW...BETWEEN THE 10
AND 24 PERCENTILE RANGE.

DATA SOURCE...UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

                        ...RESERVOIRS...

MOST OF THE AREA RESERVOIRS SHOWS FALLS DURING THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS LAKE RUSSELL.

LAKE RUSSELL                              LAKE THURMOND
NOVEMBER 03 2016 474.11 FEET              321.57 FEET
NOVEMBER 22 2016 474.94 FEET              320.33 FEET
DIFFERENCE   PLUS  0.83 FEET          MINUS 1.24 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD                            LAKE MURRAY
NOVEMBER 03 2016 436.87 FEET              354.58 FEET
NOVEMBER 22 2016 436.30 FEET              354.10 FEET
DIFFERENCE  MINUS  0.57 FEET          MINUS 0.68 FEET

LAKE MARION NEAR PINEVILLE                LAKE WATEREE
NOVEMBER 03 2016  74.64 FEET               98.51 FEET
NOVEMBER 22 2016  73.86 FEET               98.17 FEET
DIFFERENCE  MINUS  0.78 FEET          MINUS 0.36 FEET

NOTE...LAKE LEVELS ARE BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL...RELEASES AND
LOCAL POWER DEMANDS.

THE LEVEL OF LAKE RUSSELL WAS 0.06 FEET BELOW AVERAGE AND THE
LEVEL LAKE THURMOND WAS 6.18 FEET BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE LEVEL OF LAKE WATEREE WAS 2.6 FEET ABOVE THE 95.6 FOOT
TARGET LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS AND
DUKE ENERGY.

                    ...CLIMATE SUMMARY...

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 01 2016 THROUGH NOVEMBER 21 2016

STATION   PRECIPITATION     DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL   PERCENT OF
NORMAL

COLUMBIA SC   35.04 INCHES   MINUS   5.45 INCHES     87 PERCENT
AUGUSTA  GA   33.25 INCHES   MINUS   6.01 INCHES     85 PERCENT

              ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM NOVEMBER 29 2016 TO DECEMBER
05 2016 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2016 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCE
OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 33 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
REST OF GEORGIA.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2016...JANUARY
AND FEBRUARY 2017 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

GO TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB PAGE AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV IN LOWER CASE LETTERS FOR MORE DETAILS AND
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS.

               ...HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE FARTHER SOUTHWARD WITH DEEPER AND MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEMS. IF
THIS OCCURS...THIS WILL GIVE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SOIL MOISTURE.

LONGER TERM OUTLOOKS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA FOR WINTER
2016-2017. THEREFORE CHANGES IN THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE DROUGHT
STATUS FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY
DECEMBER 01 2016 UNLESS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

                      ...RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT MAY BE FOUND AT THE
FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP:WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
COLUMBIA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAE/DROUGHT.HTML
SC FORESTRY COMMISSION...WWW.STATE.SC.US/FOREST/

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LAKE INFORMATION:
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USACE...HTTP:/WATER.SAS.USACE.ARMY.MIL/HOME
USGS...HTTP://WWW.USGS.GOV

                      ...ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC
DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS
AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE...THE
USDA...USACE...DUKE ENERGY... SANTEE COOPER...SOUTH CAROLINA
ELECTRIC AND GAS AND THE USGS.

                    ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
STATEMENT
PLEASE CONTACT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
CAEWX@NOAA.GOV
LEONARD.VAUGHAN@NOAA.GOV

$$



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