Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 220048
DGTGUM
PMZ172-PMZ181-060200-
CHUUK-MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1045 AM CHST THU JUN 22 2017

...EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUMMER INTO
EARLY FALL. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...BUT WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE
INTENSITIES. IN AUGUST...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE WESTERN MICRONESIA
AND PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA.

VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE
WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AS WELL. THE REST
OF MICRONESIA NORTH OF 8 DEGREES NORTH HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL
BUT HAS HAD SUFFICIENT RAIN TO AVERT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING KAPINGAMARANGI...KOSRAE...
NUKUORO...AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAVE HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL
PRIMARILY FROM AN ACTIVE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS FINALLY STARTED
TO SET UP...BUT THE SET-UP IS ABOUT A MONTH LATER THAN NORMAL. THESE
WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING SPRINGTIME AND
EARLY SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA. THEY ALSO
HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL PATTERNS OVER AND AROUND THE MAIN ISLANDS
OF MICRONESIA.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS IS IN SHORT-
TERM AND LONG-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).
ALSO...KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE ATOLLS AND NEARBY ATOLLS ARE IN SHORT-
TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). SATELLITE IMAGES DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWED PATCHY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL MICRONESIA.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...
ON APRIL 24..THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS...AND THIS
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF JUNE

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
EXTREME DROUGHT IS AFFECTING UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ATOLLS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN
DRY IN THE COMING WEEKS. ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N TO 10N SUCH
AS WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...LIKIEP...AILUK...AND
ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL SUFFER FROM CONTINUED DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...
WOTHO...MALOELAP...UJAE AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ALL OF THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH MAY WAS RELATIVELY DRY FOR
MAJURO...ARNO...AILINGALAPLAP...NAMU AND JALUIT...THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE HAD ADEQUATE MONTHLY RAINFALL UP TO MAY TO AVERT A DROUGHT.

CHUUK STATE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...
POLOWAT AND FANANU AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
CHUUK CHUUK STATE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL RECENTLY BUT REMAIN
ABNORMALLY DRY (DROUGHT LEVEL 0 OF 4). MEASUREMENTS AT THE WESTERN
ISLAND OF POLOWAT OF CHUUK STATE HAVE BEEN LOW FOR SOME TIME. WE
SUSPECT AN EXPOSURE PROBLEM WITH THE RAIN GAUGE SINCE WE HAVE NOT
RECEIVED ANY FEEDBACK ON IMPACTS FROM THE WESTERN ISLANDS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH SUMMER...
AND CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS MIGHT
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER. CONFIDENCE ON THE COMPUTER MODEL
OUTPUT HAS IMPROVED OVER THAT FROM THE SPRING. EASTERN MICRONESIAN
ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE STILL EXPERIENCING EXTREME DROUGHT...BUT
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE TUTT HAVE STARTED MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUN    JUN %
                                               (1-20) NORMAL

WOTJE             0.08  4.48  0.99  5.23  1.14  4.19  3.74   112
UTIRIK            0.63  MSG   MSG  TRACE  1.38  0.50  2.49    20
AILINGALAPLAP    12.75  7.39  7.76  9.82  2.82  5.59  7.29    77
JALUIT            9.94 13.50 11.23  9.58  2.33  2.49  6.91    36
MAJURO           17.65  7.59 13.07 10.36  4.93  6.84  7.29    94
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE   9.00  5.60  1.07  3.44  5.20  5.96  5.49   109
FANANU            7.27  2.58  5.82  3.50  6.33  5.49  6.91    79
ONUON             4.50  3.27  6.83  5.60  3.47  3.45  7.23    48
POLOWAT           3.98  2.63  2.66  3.04  4.51  1.78  7.20    25
WENO CHUUK       11.37  8.27 15.74  7.15  9.41  5.71  8.14    70

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY MORE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING
ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS
WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP...
MALOELAP AND OTHER NEARBY ATOLLS/ISLANDS RECENTLY. COMPUTER MODELS
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS BUT INDICATE AN IMPROVED RAINFALL PATTERN IN
THE COMING DAYS.

RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)
COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (KWAJALEIN TO
WOTJE) SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

HALL ISLANDS NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT FANANU IN THE HALL ISLANDS MAY RECEIVE
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IF THAT RAINFALL DOES OCCUR...IT WILL HELP
PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR THE HALL ISLANDS...BUT THE AREA STILL
REMAINS DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE ISLANDS OF NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CHUUK STATE WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY WITH SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE WELL-MAINTAINED AT ALL LOCATIONS SINCE
PASSING SHOWERS COULD AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 6 JULY 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WARNING AREAS ARE FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO THE
MARIANA ISLANDS...BETWEEN 20N AND 10N. WATCH AREAS CONTINUE SOUTH
AND WEST OF 25N160E...INCLUDING PALAU...AND YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI
STATES AND FARTHER ALONG THE EQUATOR SOUTH OF 5N FROM 160E TO BEYOND
THE DATE LINE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM
...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/SIMPSON

$$


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