Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
AXGM70 PGUM 030357
DGTGUM
PMZ161-040200-
KOROR PALAU-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CANCELLATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
155 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...MONSOON RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABUNDANT AND THE DROUGHT STATEMENT IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON WEATHER HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS MICRONESIA DURING THE
PAST WEEKS AND KOROR PALAU RECEIVED OVER 18 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
JUNE...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER COULD RETURN TO
PALAU SO THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS COULD RE-DEVELOP FOR THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU BY AUGUST OF SEPTEMBER.

PREVIOUSLY...EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENTS OF THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR INDICATED THAT THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU WAS ENTERING A PERIOD
OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4 LEVELS). ALSO...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN EL NINO ADVISORY WHICH MEANS
AN EL NINO EVENT IS OCCURRING. CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS EL
NINO PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF 2015 AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY 2016...AND THIS EVENT COULD BECOME STRONG.

WHILE OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FOR PALAU...DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ABOUT THE
EVENTUAL SEVERITY OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY LATE JULY OR AUGUST.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FOR KOROR AND OTHER ISLANDS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

KOROR AND BABELDAOB...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADEQUATE RECENTLY...BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
IN THE COMING WEEKS.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF PALAU...
RAINFALL WAS ADEQUATE IN JUNE...BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH JULY...ESPECIALY FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN ISLANDS SUCH AS
SONSOROL AND TOBI.

SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS MAY HAVE OCCURRED ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND
ATOLLS OF PALAU. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE MONITORED...AND
FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND FRUITS ARE
IRREVERSIBLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THIS EL NINO PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF 2015.
THIS EL NINO EVENT COULD YET BECOME EVEN STRONGER.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                 MAR    APR    MAY    MAY NORMAL   JUNE   JUNE NORMAL

KOROR            5.11   5.42   3.96   11.79        18.57   17.54
PALAU AIRPORT    4.17   5.71   4.47   11.27        23.58
PELELIU                        3.47   12.00        23.08

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

KOROR AND BABELDAOB...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW FOR KOROR
DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONLY
A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL UP TO ONE INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

OUTLYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF PALAU...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE SOUTHERN
ISLANDS OF PALAU...SUCH AS SONSOROL AND TOBI...DURING THE NEXT FEW
WEEKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONLY A HALF INCH UP TO
PERHAPS ONE INCH AT BEST THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION
MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH JULY INTO AUGUST AT LEAST.

OTHER IMPACTS...
THE JUNE 29 2015 CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. INTERESTED PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA
CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT:
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE).

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR PALAU.
THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR LATER ISSUANCES. REMEMBER TO
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO...AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.