Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
AXUS74 KJAN 042343 CCA
DGTJAN
MSC001-007-011-015-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051-053-055-063-
067-075-077-079-083-087-089-091-099-101-103-121-125-127-133-149-151-
157-163-LAC025-029-035-041-065-083-107-ARC017-041-050023-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPAND FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   INTO THE SOUTHEAST YAZOO DELTA REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FIRST
MATERIALIZED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. BY THE END OF JULY...
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE JACKSON METROPOLITAN AREA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR JULY WERE
BETWEEN 15 AND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LATE JULY FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE FIRST WEEK
OF AUGUST EXPERIENCED HOT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA (HSA). HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 90S AND
103 DEGREES THROUGH THE 10TH. HIGH EVAPORATION RATES ALLOWED FOR
FASTER DEPLETION OF SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. THE AUGUST
11 DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAD SPREAD OVER
THE HSA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHILE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATED TO MODERATE DROUGHT IN THE JACKSON AND COLUMBUS
METROPOLITAN AREAS.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED THROUGH FROM THE 10TH INTO THE 12TH BRINGING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT. FROM
THE 13TH UNTIL 24TH...HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUED WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL WAS A LITTLE
MORE COMMON IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE
COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AREA WHERE THE AUGUST 18TH DROUGHT MONITOR
SHOWED AN IMPROVEMENT TO ABNORMALLY DRY FROM MODERATE DROUGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON 24TH BRINGING ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE AUGUST 25TH ISSUANCE
OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED CONDITIONS HAD DETERIORATED TO SEVERE
DROUGHT IN THE JACKSON METROPOLITAN AREA AND TO MODERATE DROUGHT
FROM WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE JACKSON METRO TO SUNFLOWER COUNTY.
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ASHLEY COUNTY
IN ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF MOREHOUSE PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES WERE PLEASANT FOR LATE AUGUST WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. NO
RAINFALL WAS REPORTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF AUGUST AND ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. THE SEPTEMBER 1ST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED CONDITIONS HAD
WORSENED AS SEVERE DROUGHT SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE JACKSON
METRO INTO YAZOO...HOLMES...AND EASTERN EDGES OF HUMPHREYS COUNTIES
IN MISSISSIPPI. MODERATE DROUGHT SPREAD INTO MUCH WEST MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. MODERATE DROUGHT NOW COVERS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDS FROM MOREHOUSE PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTH TO PORTIONS OF RICHLAND...FRANKLIN...AND ALL OF CATAHOULA
PARISH.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
SINCE AUGUST 24TH...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SHOWERS OCCURRING SINCE THE FIRST OF
SEPTEMBER. THE CURRENT WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THE HARVESTING OF CROPS
BUT NOT FOR THOSE STILL IN THE GROUND. THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX SHOWS
SEVERELY DRY SOIL FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. CROP CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO
GOOD RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...FEWER CROPS ARE LISTED AS EXCELLENT AND MORE
ARE CONSIDERED POOR BUT STILL THE MAJORITY OF THE CROPS ARE LISTED
IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS. THE PASTURE LAND IS CURRENTLY MOST UNDER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HSA. LOW SOIL MOISTURE IS TAKING ITS TOLL AS THE
NEED FOR HEALTHY PASTURES TO FEED LIVESTOCK CONTINUES. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE UNTIL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KDBI) VALUES FROM 600 TO 800 ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE. INTENSE...DEEP
BURNING FIRES CAN BE EXPECTED. LIVE FUELS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO
BURN ACTIVELY AT THESE LEVELS.

KDBI VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 700 ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN EDGES OF MISSISSIPPI. WILD FIRES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

LOUISIANA PARISH FIRE BANS...
   MOREHOUSE..WEST CARROLL...RICHLAND...AND CATAHOULA.

SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS FIRE BANS...
   ASHLEY AND CHICOT.

KDBI VALUES FROM 601 TO 700 ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. SOME SCATTERED BRUSH AND
GRASS FIRES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THIS REGION.

MISSISSIPPI FIRE BANS...
   MADISON..HINDS...YAZOO...ADAMS...COPIAH...FRANKLIN...AND RANKIN.

KDBI VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI RANGE FROM 501-600. THESE
VALUES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THESE VALUES ARE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL. UNDERBRUSH WILL BURN ACTIVELY
IF IGNITED.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.
THE USGS WATER WATCH PAGE SHOWS 7 DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW AT
SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT IN THE TENSAS RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA WHILE MODERATE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT EXISTS ACROSS THE PEARL
RIVER...PASCAGOULA...BIG BLACK AND THE HOMOCHITTO SYSTEMS. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO WATER RESTRICTIONS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOT THIS SUMMER. JACKSON HAD THE 10TH
WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD.  HATTIESBURG HAD THE 5TH WARMEST AND
VICKSBURG-TALLULAH HAD THE 7TH WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD.

DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED THIS SUMMER. RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
90 DAYS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM THE JACKSON
METROPOLITAN AREA TO BOLIVAR AND SUNFLOWER COUNTIES IN THE DELTA.
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS RAINFALL HAS
RANGED FROM 50 TO 90 PERCENTS OF NORMAL WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS
RECORDING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF MISSISSIPPI IN THE
WFO JACKSON HSA ALSO HAD 50 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH
OF CLARKE AND PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE ACTUALLY HAD 100 TO 125 PERCENT
OF NORMAL RAINFALL.

CITY:       SUMMER RAIN   DEPARTURE     AUGUST RAIN    DEPARTURE
             (JUN-AUG)    FROM NORM                    FROM NORM

JACKSON       8.68 IN       -4.98         0.40 IN        -3.84

              ***JACKSON HAD 3RD DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD***

HAWKINS AP    7.67 IN       -5.23         0.14 IN        -3.87
(JACKSON)

MERIDIAN     12.64 IN       -0.89         4.10 IN        +0.11

TALLULAH     10.18 IN       -1.36         3.21 IN        -0.44
VICKSBURG AP

HATTIESBURG  13.39 IN       -0.69         2.46 IN        -2.46

NATCHEZ AP    7.95 IN        NA           0.88 IN         NA

GREENWOOD/    6.13 IN       -4.83         1.76 IN        -1.07
LEFLORE AP

STONEVILLE    6.47 IN       -3.36         0.73 IN        -1.76
(NEAR GREENVILLE)


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE DAY AND LOWS
NEAR 70. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

A SHEAR AXIS WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING A
GREATER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. A WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY FURTHER BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER THROUGH
NOVEMBER...ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...INDICATES
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE THREE MONTH RAINFALL OUTLOOK THROUGH NOVEMBER
INDICATES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL.

WITH A STRENGTHENING EL NINO...COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE WINTER MONTHS.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
LARGER AREA LAKES SUCH AS GRENADA...OKATIBBEE...AND ROSS BARNETT
ARE SLOWLY FALLING WITH THE HIGH EVAPORATION RATES AND LITTLE
RAINFALL. OVERALL...THE POOLS ARE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING
THE DRY WEATHER IN RECENT MONTHS.  SMALLER LAKES IN THE REGION ARE
SEEING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING AS HIGH EVAPORATION RATES AND HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS ARE COMMON. RIVERS ARE CONTINUING TO DROP ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONTINUED HIGH EVAPORATION RATES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE TREND. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MID
TO LATE SEPTEMBER OR AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&


RELATED WEB SITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON:  WEATHER.GOV/JAN
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:  WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
LSU AG CENTER: WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
LA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY BURN BANS:
   WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/NEWS/BURN-BANS-CURRENTLY-IN-PLACE
ARKANSAS FIRE INFO: WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
MISSISSIPPI FIRE BANS INFORMATION: WWW.MFC.MS.GOV/BURN-BANS.PHP
MISSISSIPPI STATE CLIMATE OFFICE:
   GEOSCIENCES.MSSTATE.EDU/STATECLIMATOLOGIST.HTM


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A FACILITATED COLLABORATION AMONG
VARIOUS AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE U.S.
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAVE BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS/FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE USDA..THE CORP OF
ENGINEERS..USGS...FORESTRY INTEREST IN MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS...AND
LOUISIANA.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT INFORMATION ON THIS STATEMENT PLEASE
CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
234 WEATHER SERVICE DRIVE
JACKSON, MS 39232

PHONE: (601) 936-2189
EMAIL: MARTY.POPE@NOAA.GOV


$$
MVP



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