Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FGUS73 KAPX 021958
ESFAPX
MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-097-
101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-011958-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 PM EST THU MAR 2 2017

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

THE SPRING 2017 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A BELOW
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT WITHIN MAJOR EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...
RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS.

THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE
(MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE
SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES
OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED
ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.  WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOODING
                   VALID PERIOD:  03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  14   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B    7.0   99.0   99.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK              7.0   99.0   99.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING             6.0   11.0   13.0 :  39   59   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD             17.0   19.0   99.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON           12.0   14.0   99.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS) AND THE
CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS).  FOR EXAMPLE...THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...
WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET...HAS AN 14 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE NORMAL.
DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE NORMAL PROBABILITY OF THE RIFLE
RIVER NEAR STERLING REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS 12 PERCENT.

THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD
RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW
FORECAST):

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITIES

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              13.1   13.3   13.6   14.0   14.6   15.1   15.4
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     4.1    4.2    4.3    4.5    4.7    5.0    5.2
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               4.2    4.2    4.4    4.7    5.1    5.6    5.9
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              3.7    4.4    5.0    5.7    6.9    8.4    9.5
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               6.6    7.5    8.4    9.5   11.4   12.0   12.6
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             4.8    5.4    5.9    6.7    7.2    8.3    9.1


CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE DURING
THE VALID PERIOD LISTED ABOVE THE TABLE ARE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ON THE
RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING...LESS THAN 25 PERCENT ON THE MANISTEE RIVER
NEAR SHERMAN...AND LESS THAN 5 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION
COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (LOW
FLOW FORECAST):

...TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              12.3   12.1   11.9   11.7   11.6   11.4   11.2
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     3.8    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.4
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               3.6    3.5    3.4    3.2    3.0    3.0    2.9
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              2.2    2.1    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.2
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN
ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING.  THE LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT RIVER LEVELS...
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.
ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF FUTURE CONDITIONS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
PERSISTENT MILD CONDITIONS RESULTED IN ONE OF THE WARMEST FALL SEASONS
(SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER) ON RECORD AT SEVERAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING SAULT STE. MARIE...TRAVERSE CITY AND GAYLORD.
FALL PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE LACK OF
COLD AIR ALSO RESULTED IN A SLOW START TO THE SNOW SEASON...THOUGH
DECEMBER MORE THAN MADE UP FOR THAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW BELTS.  GAYLORD RECORDED ITS
SNOWIEST DECEMBER ON RECORD (60.1 INCHES)...WITH TOP TEN SNOWIEST
DECEMBERS AT SAULT STE. MARIE AND HOUGHTON LAKE.  JANUARY WAS ALSO
MILD WITH A PROLONGED JANUARY THAW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MONTH...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER.  FEBRUARY CAME IN AS A VERY WARM MONTH WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE MONTH.  TOP 5 WARMEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD
OCCURRED AT SAULT STE. MARIE...HOUGHTON LAKE...ALPENA...TRAVERSE
CITY... AND GAYLORD.  THIS CONTRIBUTED TO A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SNOW
MELT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY WAS
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH TOP TEN WETTEST FEBRUARY`S AT SAULT STE.
MARIE...HOUGHTON LAKE...ALPENA...AND GAYLORD.

SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...
WETTEST SOILS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE AREA RANGES FROM 10 INCHES TO MORE
THAN TWO FEET ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH HIGHEST TOTALS SURROUNDING
WHITEFISH BAY...AND FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES IN A SWATH FROM THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY REGION NORTHEAST TO NEAR ROGERS CITY IN NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN TAPERING TO ZERO SNOW COVER SOUTH OF A GLADWIN/HARRISVILLE
LINE.  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK WAS MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL
THANKS IN PART TO THE RECENT MELT.

STREAMFLOWS ON AREA RIVERS WERE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT...WITH ICE COVER RESULTING IN SHARP FLUCTUATIONS ON SOME RIVER
CHANNELS.  SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK ALONG
THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING IN ARENAC COUNTY.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR
THE PERIOD OF MARCH 7-11 IS CALLING FOR A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
MONTH OF MARCH AS A WHOLE SHOWS PERHAPS A SMALL TREND TOWARD WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.  THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) IS
CALLING FOR A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
THIS IS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FOR THIS
YEAR. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN
IN THE ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH
MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX (ALL LOWER
CASE) FOR MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE
PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL
AS THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN
STREAMS.

$$

JPB



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