Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FGUS73 KBIS 232037
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
236 PM CST WED NOV 23 2016


...Flood and Water Resources Outlook...
This probabilistic Spring Flood and Water Resources outlook is for
the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers
the period of late November through late February.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some text
on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local
hydrology. The second section gives the current and normal/historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast
locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the
river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
This issuance of the monthly probabilistic hydrologic outlook is
one of the least exciting outlooks due to the time of year as most
streams and rivers are frozen over during the effective period.
Therefore, the probabilities listed below tend to reflect very
little risk of widespread high water or damaging floods. While
that is generally true, there have been a couple of notable
examples of mid-winter runoff that created concerns due to
unseasonably warm temperatures. This suggests the risk, while
very low, it is not zero.

...Current Conditions...
A very warm and generally dry end of October and early November
has removed some concerns about surface soils being abnormally
wet going into winter-like temperatures. Soils which were
excessively wet several weeks ago are now near normal to slightly
above normal. Rivers, lakes, and reservoirs are near their normal
levels for this time of year with no significant concerns. Snow
cover is mostly absent as the region approaches December.

...Weather Outlook...
The near term 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks depict an equal chance for
below, near normal, and above normal temperature and precipitation
that transitions into a favoring of a below normal temperature and
above normal precipitation pattern near the end of the first week
in December. December as a whole still has an equal chance for
below normal, near normal, or above normal temperatures and
precipitation.  However, largely due to the continued expectation
for a La Nina affected winter, the three month outlooks still
tend to reflect a slightly greater risk than normal for a
below normal temperature and above normal precipitation pattern
over the winter season.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                     VALID PERIOD = 11/26/2016  - 02/24/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:James River
Grace City          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lamoure             14.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Regent              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Breien              10.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Muddy River
Williston           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri
Marmarth            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri River
Medora              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Watford City        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Manning             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring Creek
Zap                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Hazen               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Heart River
Mandan              17.0   23.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD = 11/26/2016  - 02/24/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:James River
Grace City            4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0
Lamoure               7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
:Cannonball River
Regent                4.8    4.9    5.0    5.2    5.5    6.1    6.6
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.1    1.1    1.2    1.6    2.4    3.1    3.5
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.2    2.2    2.3    2.8    4.3    4.9    4.9
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.7    4.8    5.0
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    5.2    5.7    5.8
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.2    1.2    1.4    2.1    2.8    3.4    3.7
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.8    1.8    1.9    2.7    3.9    4.7    5.0
Watford City          0.0    0.0    0.0    0.4    0.7    1.6    1.7
:Knife River
Manning               6.3    6.3    6.3    6.3    7.5    7.8   10.0
:Spring Creek
Zap                   5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.2    5.3    6.2
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    2.0    3.1    5.2
:Heart River
Mandan               -0.3   -0.3   -0.3   -0.3   -0.3    0.1    0.2
:Apple Creek
Menoken               4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          VALID PERIOD = 11/26/2016  - 02/24/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:James River
Grace City            4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0
Lamoure               7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4
:Cannonball River
Regent                4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7

:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
Watford City         -0.1   -0.1   -0.1   -0.1   -0.1   -0.1   -0.1
:Knife River
Manning               6.2    6.2    6.2    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1
:Spring Creek
Zap                   4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.0    1.0    1.0    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
:Heart River
Mandan               -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
:Apple Creek
Menoken               4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.

$$
AJS


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