Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 152203
ESFGLD

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MST THU FEBRUARY 15 2018

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook use the term Goodland Service Area to refer to major
rivers located
  - In Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties of Colorado
  - In Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties of Nebraska
  - In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are
    delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham, and Norton
    counties.
These river systems include
  - The North and South Forks of the Republican River
  - The Republican River
  - Beaver, Sappa, and Prairie Dog Creeks
  - South and North Forks of the Solomon River
  - The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers

This outlook is valid from February 15 through March 1, 2018.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced
notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture,
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued.
Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and
precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then
actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of
flood events in the Goodland service area result from short periods
of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive
precipitation.

Much of the northwest portion of the area has received above normal
precipitation since the beginning of December with the remainder of
the area receiving below normal precipitation. In comparison to this
time last year, more precipitation has fallen in the form of snow.

Soil moisture conditions are currently running near normal. The far
northern portion of the Goodland HSA has a small amount of snow
cover. The latest current drought monitor index
(www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows that the south central and west
central portion of the area has moderate drought with most of the
remainder of the area experiencing abnormally dry conditions.
However, the northern half of Yuma county extending through Dundy
into the northwest half of Hitchcock county is currently
experiencing no drought.

NOAA`S Climate Prediction Center (CPC)(www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/)
forecasts above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation
for the period February 23 through March 1.

Reservoir levels currently range between 21 to 51 percent of
conservation pool capacities at Keith Sebelius Lake in northwest
Kansas, Hugh Butler Lake, Enders and Swanson Reservoirs in southwest
Nebraska. The Harry Strunk Reservoir which feeds Medicine Creek in
southwest Nebraska is currently at 73 percent of its conservation
capacity.

Given little to no snowpack, near average soil moisture conditions,
and forecasts indicating below normal precipitation, a below average
risk of flooding is designated for the Goodland service area for the
period of February 15 to March 1.

$$

Buller



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