Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.

...There is a normal to slightly below normal potenial of flooding
along most streams and rivers this spring...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/17/2015 - 05/18/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 :   7    7   <5    5   <5   <5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 :   5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 :  10   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  12   15   <5    7   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 :  18   77   <5   20   <5    9
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 :   9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 :  16   16    9   10   <5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 :  10   11    5    5   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 :  10   11    5    5   <5   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :   7   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  18   18    6   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :   7   12    5    6   <5   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :   6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :   8    7    7    6   <5   <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.6 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :   9   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 :  17   23   11   14   <5   <5
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 :  10   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  34   37   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :  21   22    5    6   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 :  22   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 :  27   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 :  14   22    5    5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  21   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 :  18   23   11   16   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 :  17   26   10   11   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 :  19   26   <5    8   <5   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 :  34   36   17   19   <5   <5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 :  39   37   31   29   18   17
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 :  49   49   39   40   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 :  49   44   36   31    8    8
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 :   9   26   <5    6   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 :   7   15    6    9   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 :  35   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 :  14   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 :  29   37   20   19   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 :  27   33   16   20    6    8
:Gypsum Creek
Gypsum              15.0   19.0   22.0 :  31   42   13   15   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :   7   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2015 - 05/18/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend            2.2    2.2    2.2    2.6    3.8    5.7    7.4
Hutchinson            1.1    1.3    1.9    2.6    4.0    5.2    8.9
Haven                 1.9    2.2    3.4    4.5    6.6    8.9   10.7
Derby                 1.8    2.4    2.7    4.1    6.1   11.2   12.1
Mulvane               6.7    7.4    7.8    9.2   11.0   16.8   17.5
Oxford                8.2    8.9    9.6   11.0   13.5   17.6   19.2
Arkansas City         3.8    4.5    5.4    6.8    9.3   13.5   16.2
:Walnut Creek
Albert                3.5    3.5    3.6    6.7   10.9   16.5   20.2
:Cow Creek
Lyons                 4.7    6.1   10.1   14.1   17.1   18.0   19.1
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills            0.1    1.4    6.8   12.6   18.2   24.8   26.3
Halstead              6.0    6.6   10.2   14.5   18.9   25.1   27.2
Sedgwick              3.1    5.0    7.1   10.7   14.4   22.2   25.4
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th      7.2    7.2   10.4   12.1   14.2   17.7   18.4
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               4.0    4.0    4.7    5.7    6.8    9.4   10.2
:Ninnescah River
Peck                  4.1    4.8    5.6    7.9   11.1   15.2   16.9
Belle Plaine         10.3   10.8   11.7   13.2   16.1   20.8   22.4
:Whitewater River
Towanda               2.2    4.0    5.5    8.0   12.7   19.1   25.3
Augusta               4.3    5.7    6.5    8.0   10.4   14.1   23.1
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             6.4    6.8    7.9    8.9   12.5   20.2   23.9
:Walnut River
El Dorado             2.4    2.8    3.2    4.1    7.4   11.4   13.2
Augusta               6.1    6.5    7.2    8.8   16.2   22.6   25.6
Winfield              1.7    3.3    5.1    7.8   12.9   22.8   27.9
Arkansas City         2.8    4.6    6.1    8.9   12.9   18.3   21.1
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                2.0    2.4    5.7    8.6   10.8   13.6   14.0
:Fall River
Fredonia              4.8    5.6    8.0   11.6   15.0   22.6   27.5
:Verdigris River
Altoona               5.9    7.6    9.5   14.5   18.8   19.8   20.3
Independence          7.3    9.2   14.3   20.2   30.9   35.4   38.5
Coffeyville           1.6    2.7    3.9    7.3   15.8   19.0   23.7
:Cottonwood River
Florence              3.3    3.9    4.6    6.5   21.0   25.8   26.4
Cottonwood Falls      1.1    1.7    2.6    3.5    6.8   11.6   13.6
Plymouth              4.4    7.1   10.0   17.5   29.8   34.1   34.7
:Neosho River
Iola                  8.9    9.2    9.6   10.8   13.2   17.8   19.5
Chanute              13.5   13.7   15.1   18.7   25.7   31.3   33.0
Erie                 17.4   18.3   20.3   25.3   34.3   38.4   39.6
Parsons              12.7   14.3   15.8   20.9   25.9   26.7   28.7
Oswego               10.2   10.8   11.2   16.9   22.8   24.3   26.1
:Salt Creek
Barnard               3.8    3.8    4.1    5.7   11.7   20.6   23.1
:Saline River
Lincoln              10.5   10.6   11.1   12.8   15.4   22.0   37.9
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.8    9.0   10.5   16.0   21.6   24.1   27.9
Mentor                4.2    5.7    7.0   12.2   18.7   20.8   22.9
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                3.5    4.0    6.0   14.1   24.5   26.4   26.8
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria          11.5   13.1   17.3   23.3   27.6   30.6   33.8
:Gypsum Creek
Gypsum                4.6    5.8    7.3    9.4   17.1   19.1   19.2
:Smoky Hill River
Russell               3.5    3.5    3.5    5.5    8.1   10.8   15.9
Ellsworth             1.4    1.9    3.5    5.9    9.3   15.7   21.1
:Saline River
Russell               4.9    4.9    6.0    6.6    8.1   11.3   13.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2015 - 05/18/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Salt Creek
Barnard               3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8
:Saline River
Lincoln              10.4   10.4   10.4   10.4   10.4   10.4   10.4
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.8    6.8    6.8    6.6    6.5    6.3    6.1
Mentor                4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.0
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.3
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria           5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1    4.9
:Gypsum Creek
Gypsum                4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0
:Smoky Hill River
Russell               3.5    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.1    3.1    3.1
Ellsworth             1.2    1.2    1.2    0.8    0.0    0.0    0.0
:Saline River
Russell               4.8    4.8    4.7    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

This outlook is valid from February 19th through March 5th, 2015.

The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.

There is currently no snow cover across the area, however looking
ahead at this weekend`s weather situation the NWS Wichita Service
Area will be receiving wintery precipitation. A mixture of
precipitation types is likely. This system is not expected to provide
a significant amount of liquid equivalent precipitation with most of
the area to receive somewhere between 0.15 to 0.35 inches.

Precipitation over the last 3 months has been below normal over most
of the service area. Generally the area has received 50 to 90 percent
of its normal precipitation. Current soil moisture anomaly data shows
dry soils across the southern sections of the service area.

Looking at the long term aspect...the past year shows the majority of
the area obtaining 70 to 90 percent of its normal precipitation. This
equates to precipitation deficits of 3 to 12 inches over south
central and southeast KS, while central KS saw deficits mainly 4
inches or less.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued February 19th 2015...
(http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows central and southeast KS
under abnormally dry conditions. Moderate Drought (D1) is impacting
most of south central KS along with Severe Drought (D2) encroaching
southern sections of Harper County. These conditions have basically
remained intact over the last few months with the trend of dry
conditions expanding eastward over southeast KS in late January.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through May 2015, indicates current drought conditions to
desipate by the end of May.

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows a mix of normal flows intertwined with below normal flows
across the basins.

The area reservoirs are near the top of their conservation pools
or slightly in flood control pools. The U.S. Corps of Engineers data
indicates that the Corps reservoirs currently have an average of 107
percent of their flood-control storage available at this time.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the period valid
through May, calls for equal chances of normal, above normal, and
below normal precipitation and temperatures.

The 8-14 day CPC Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) indicates
near normal precipitation over the area. A good likelihood of below
normal temperatures are forecast across the Wichita HSA.

Based upon the above information, there is a normal to slightly below
normal risk of spring flooding across the Wichita Service Area.

The next scheduled Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be
issued March 5, 2015.

Visit our home page at
www.weather.gov/wichita for more weather and flood information.

$$

SALAZAR







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