Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1053 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook for Southeast Georgia and
Northeast Florida...

...Below Normal Potential for river flooding in Southeast Georgia
and Northeast Florida this Spring...

...Existing Conditions...

In the Altamaha, Satilla and Alapaha Basins...
Long term rainfall signals have shown a mixed bag across this
region with very dry conditions during the fall of 2016 but some
significant rainfall during the early part of 2017 did send some
minor to moderate flooding down these basins in late January and
early February. During the month of February conditions have been
dry and streamflows have fallen to near normal or below normal
levels for this time of year. Also dry conditions exist further
upstream on the Altamaha basin in the middle and upper portions
that have resulted in streamflows falling to below normal values
recently.

In the Upper Suwannee and St. Marys Basins...
Rainfall since October 1st has been well below normal with
rainfall deficits of 4 to 8 inches across the basin. Streamflows
were running near normal to below normal for this time of year.

In the Santa Fe Basin...
Rainfall since October 1st has been well below normal with
rainfall deficits of 5 to 10 inches across the basin. Streamflows
were running below normal to much below normal for this time of
year.

In the Black Creek Basin...
Rainfall since October 1st has been below normal with rainfall
deficits of 3 to 6 inches across the basin and the last
significant rainfall was back in early October during Hurricane
Matthew. Streamflows are running much below normal for this time
of year.

...Long Term Precipitation Outlook...
The three month precipitation outlook for March, April, and May,
indicates equal chances for above normal, normal, and below normal
precipitation across the area. The one month outlook for March
has been recently updated to reflect equal chances of above
normal, normal, and below normal precipitation across the area.
Typically, April and May are drier months across the region, and
in the absence of significant rains in the month of March, river
flooding becomes less likely after mid April as fewer storm
systems impact the region.

...Spring Flood Outlook Summary...
Despite some localized heavy rainfall and river flooding across
Southeast Georgia early this year, rainfall over the past 6 months
has been below normal across most of the region with deficits
close to 10 inches across inland Northeast Florida. These
conditions along with the long term precipitation outlook leads
to a below normal potential outlook for river flooding across the
region this spring. Another added factor limiting flood potential
is the recent warm temperatures have made trees and vegetation to
begin to come out of winter dormancy much earlier increasing
evapotranspiration rates and minimizing runoff.

$$

Hess



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