Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
762
FGUS74 KLZK 022125
ESFLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-
053-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-
109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-031830-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CST THU MAR 02 2017

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Little Rock has a
Hydrologic Service Area which is wholly located within the state of
Arkansas. It encompasses an area which includes the White River from
Bull Shoals Dam downstream and the Ouachita River and tributaries
from the headwaters to the upper boundary of the Felsenthal National
Wildlife Refuge. Along with the main stem of these rivers, it also
includes tributaries with forecast locations on the Cache, Black,
Spring, Saline, Petit Jean, Fourche LaFave, Little Missouri,
Buffalo, Little Red, and Eleven Point Rivers.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

Rainfall - Over the past several months, below normal precipitation
has occurred. Many areas across the northwest half of the state have
seen less than 75% of their normal precipitation this winter.

Snowpack - Snowpack estimates from the National Operational
Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate no snowpack in
Arkansas, which is normal. Soil moisture conditions in western
Arkansas are significantly below normal (<30th percentile). Many
areas are even lower (5th to 20th percentile). Warmer temperatures
across a large part of the country have kept snow depths of 2 to 4
inches confined to portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and north Iowa.
Snow water equivalents in this area are generally 0.5 inches or
less. The remainder of the Mississippi River Basin is snow free. For
this spring, snowmelt will not be a contributing factor to spring
flooding in the Lower Mississippi River Basin or in the Arkansas Red
River Basin.

Soil Moisture - Soil moisture conditions are generally below normal
over the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys and near
normal over lower Ohio Valley.

River Flows and Reservoirs - Storage capacity at the Corps of
Engineer Projects in the White River basin is a little less than
this time last year (5 to 10 feet below normal pool). Fortunately
the effective lake management has allowed streamflow downstream of
these projects to remain near normal levels. The only rivers/streams
considered in high streamflow are located in the Ouachita River
Basin due to a recent rainfall event. Smaller streams and
tributaries in the lower Arkansas River basin are in the 10th to
25th percentile.

White River Basin...

Below normal precipitation has occurred over the past 60 days. Soil
moisture content and streamflow conditions are below normal. No
flooding is occurring or expected during the next several days.

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; a Below Average Flood Potential is expected over
the Black and Upper White Basins.

Percent of available flood control storage for the Black/Upper White
Basin Reservoirs are given below.

                                            2/15   3/1
                      Clearwater Res. MO    100%  100%
                          Beaver Res. AR    100%  100%
                      Table Rock Res. MO    100%  100%
                     Bull Shoals Res. AR    100%  100%
                         Norfork Res. AR    100%  100%

Streamflows have remained below normal this year due to less than normal
rainfall. Soil moisture is below normal and no flooding is occurring or expected
during the next several days. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median
are given below.

                                             3/1
White River              Batesville  AR      64%
White River                 Newport  AR      51%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; a Below Average Flood Potential is expected over the lower White
Basins.

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...

The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in
response to specific heavy precipitation events.  However, the
Arkansas River may flood in response to upstream conditions. There
are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to
alter the flood potential of the area.

Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas are near levels
approximating design conditions. They have approximately 99 percent
of their flood control capacity available at this time. Streamflows
in western Arkansas are below normal. Soil moisture conditions are
normal to below normal for the Arkansas River Basin. Observed flow
along the lower Arkansas River is currently 32000 cfs which is 42%
of normal compared to the long term average of 76000 cfs for early
March.

Based on current soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the
lower Arkansas Basin.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates there are increased chances (40-50%) for above normal
temperatures across Arkansas. The outlook indicates equal chances of
above, below, or near median precipitation during the same time period.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017 indicates significant
drought conditions across western Arkansas. Much of the area is
in Severe Drought (D2), with a small area near Ft. Smith
designated Extreme Drought (D3). Areas near the Missouri border are
in Moderate Drought (D1).  CPC`s Seasonal Drought Outlook of February
16, 2017 calls for possible improvements to the drought conditions
during the next three months.

OUACHITA RIVER BASIN...

Streamflows are running near seasonal averages. Soil moisture content
is near normal and no flooding is occurring or expected at this time. Observed
daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                             3/1
Ouachita River                 Camden AR    119%
Ouachita River                 Monroe LA     88%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Ouachita and
Black River Basins.

Percent of available reservoir flood control storage is given below.

                                            3/1
                        Lake Ouachita AR    100%
                          Degray Res. AR    100%

...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures. Chances of below normal precipitation
are expected over Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley while equal chances of
above/below normal precipitation is expected over the remainder of the lower
Mississippi Valley.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures across the
area. Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation is indicated over the
lower Mississippi Valley.

The 90 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures over the lower Mississippi Valley. Equal
chances of above/below normal precipitation is indicated over the lower
Mississippi Valley.

CONCLUSION...

The Spring Potential Outlook is a routine product. Should excessive
rainfall become part of the forecast at any time frame of the year,
a hydrologic outlook will be issued with event specific information.

For the latest river stage information, forecast, and warnings
please visit our website at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk

River stage and forecast data can be obtained by selecting the
rivers and lakes AHPS link on the front page.

$$

61



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.