Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 031757
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NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
157 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR NORTH CAROLINA...WITH NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS BEING CURRENTLY
OBSERVED AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
APRIL...THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
NEAR NORMAL. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE MONTH OF APRIL IS
TYPICALLY A PERIOD WHERE THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS BEGINS TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS NORMAL RAINFALL DECREASES AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION INCREASES. THIS IS THE TRANSITION TIME FROM
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING RECHARGE TO LATE SPRING AND SUMMER WARMING
TEMPERATURES...VEGETATION COMING OUT OF DORMANCY AND MORE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS SUPPORT THIS CHANGING SCENARIO OF DECREASING RIVER FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM MARCH. THESE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE
FOUND ON THE WATER.WEATHER.GOV WEB SITE UNDER THE EXPERIMENTAL
LONG RANGE RIVER FLOOD RISK TAB.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF APRIL 1ST ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF REGION.

RESERVOIRS...MANY RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS.

SNOW PACK...NO SNOWPACK AT THIS TIME.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS IT APPEARS THE
FREQUENCY OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL DECREASE THROUGH MID APRIL. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...NEUTRAL ENSO
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SPRING WITH POTENTIAL WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN THE
SUMMER. AS A RESULT AND BASED ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
FORECAST...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR APRIL THROUGH MAY. SEE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

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