Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1111 AM AST Sun Apr 14 2024

...A WET PERIOD EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...
...THIS MARKS THE ONSET OF THE EARLY WET SEASON IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...

An unsettled and wet pattern is expected to prevail through the
middle of the workweek across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Recent satellite imagery shows a robust area of enhanced moisture
approaching the region. Additionally, instability aloft will
increase as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest.

The interaction of these features will favor the development of
showers and thunderstorms across the region, starting today and
stretching into at least Wednesday. Periods of moderate to locally
heavy rainfall is expected, especially for the eastern, northern
and interior of Puerto Rico. Additionally, some pulses of showers
will move over the Virgin Islands and southern Puerto Rico at
times.

The risk for urban and small stream flooding, water surges along
rivers, and mudslides will also increase, while isolated flash
flooding cannot be ruled out. For now, the wettest period appears
to be Monday through Wednesday, with conditions improving by
Thursday.

Usually, the early wet season begins in the northeastern Caribbean
by mid-April, extending into the end of May. This year, the
climatological guidance (very long-range models) indicate that
rainfall should be above normal for Puerto Rico and for the Virgin
Islands through this period. While enhanced precipitation would
prevent drought from redeveloping, it would also mean that
flooding could become more frequent, and residents are encouraged
to review their flooding plans.

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