Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 041732
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
SOUTHERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1230 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL
AS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA RIVERS. NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING RIVER WATERSHEDS OF EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND FLORIDA.

HISTORICALLY FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND NORTH
FLORIDA...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID
JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH
LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL
FOR THE REGION.  FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE RIVER FLOOD
SEASON IS PRIMARILY IN LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL.

STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS IN PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTH
GEORGIA. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT
CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL. THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER
FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WATERSHEDS WHERE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS COULD
EXCEED WHAT IS TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 2ND ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL WITHIN THE ALABAMA
RIVER WATERSHED WITH NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND MOST OF GEORGIA.  STREAMFLOWS
ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH GEORGIA...AND MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS
FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF GEORGIA.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN.  THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID
MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ENSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE LATEST
CPC 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST...PRIMARILY BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS
RATHER THAN ENSO.  SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

DOBUR/HAMILL



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