Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill

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                       SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
                 MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
                         PLEASANT HILL, MO
                            FEB 19, 2015


NARRATIVE PART 1 OF 1

ATTN WFO`S SERVED BY MBRFC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL THURSDAY,
FEBRUARY 19, 2015.

THIS SPRING OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE WHICH
INCLUDES RIVERS IN MONTANA, WYOMING, COLORADO, NORTH AND SOUTH
DAKOTA, NEBRASKA, KANSAS, IOWA, MINNESOTA AND MISSOURI.


   SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK


GENERALLY SPEAKING, FLOOD RISK THIS SPRING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BASIN CAN BE CATEGORIZED AS BEING NEAR NORMAL TO LESS THAN
NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL RISK SUGGESTS THAT LOCATIONS WHICH TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE SPRING TIME FLOODING MAY FLOOD AGAIN THIS YEAR.
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT NORMALLY EXPERIENCE FLOODING ARE NOT
PROJECTED TO FLOOD THIS YEAR.  BY THE SAME TOKEN, AREAS HAVING A
LESS THAN NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING CAN STILL BE PROJECTED TO
FLOOD, ALBEIT AT A DIMINISHED RISK AS COMPARED TO NORMAL.

A NEAR AVERAGE SNOWPACK EXISTS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST. PLAINS
SNOWPACK, THOUGH WIDESPREAD, IS QUITE SHALLOW.  FROZEN GROUND
CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA.
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK CONDITION, THE EXISTENCE OF DRYER THAN
NORMAL SUBSURFACE SOILS, AND A DIMINISHED FROZEN GROUND EFFECT,
HAVE COMBINED TO MAKE THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING EITHER IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST OR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNLIKELY.

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LITTLE MUDDY RIVER AND IN
THE KNIFE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH DAKOTA.  THE JAMES RIVER IN
SOUTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING. THE
BIG SIOUX RIVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE MINOR
FLOODING.  THE FLOYD AND LITTLE SIOUX RIVERS IN IOWA ARE
PROJECTED TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING.

SPRING FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN IS DUE
PRIMARILY TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ALONG STRANGER CREEK IN EASTERN KANSAS, AND ALSO WITHIN THE
GRAND, OSAGE, AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS IN THE STATE OF MISSOURI.
A FEW OF THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES WITHIN THE STATE OF MISSOURI
WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING THIS SPRING.
MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY WITHIN THE MARAIS DES CYGNES AND BIG
BLUE RIVER BASINS IN KANSAS, AND ALONG THE CHARITON RIVER IN
MISSOURI. THE MISSOURI RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF NEBRASKA CITY MAY
ALSO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING GIVEN NORMAL SPRING TIME
CONVECTION.

THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS A GENERALIZED SUMMARY OF SNOWMELT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.  ABOVE NORMAL FUTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND RAPID MELT WILL INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOOD
POTENTIAL WHILE BELOW NORMAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND GRADUAL OR
INTERMITTENT FREEZING AND THAWING WILL DECREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT.  IN ADDITION, WHEN MANY OF THE FROZEN
RIVERS AND STREAMS THAW, ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR CAUSING HIGHER RIVER
LEVELS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.  ICE JAM FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED THIS SEASON.  ALL REPORTS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE IMPACTS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY MINOR AND LOCALIZED IN EXTENT.  HIGH WATER
DUE TO ICE FORMATION HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG REACHES OF THE
JEFFERSON, TWO MEDICINE, AND CLARKS FORK OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVERS
IN MONTANA; AND THE NORTH PLATTE, SOUTH PLATTE, PLATTE, NORTH LOUP,
AND REPUBLICAN RIVERS IN NEBRASKA.  ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

THESE PROJECTIONS OF RIVER STAGES AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVED STATES OF STREAMFLOW, SOIL MOISTURE, AND SNOW
PACK, COUPLED WITH FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS
AND ANTICIPATED OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHANGES SUCH AS RESERVOIR
RELEASES AND CANAL DIVERSIONS.  "OUTLOOKS" ARE PROVIDED FOR
LONG-RANGE (WEEKS TO MONTHS) PROJECTIONS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL
PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.  "FORECASTS" ARE
PROVIDED FOR SHORT-TERM (DAYS) PROJECTIONS BASED ON FUTURE
FORECASTED PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.  THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE PRODUCTS VARIES FROM SEASON TO SEASON AND
SITE TO SITE.  IN RECENT YEARS, OUTLOOK CRESTS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
THE OBSERVED CREST ABOUT AS OFTEN AS THEY HAVE BEEN BELOW THE
OBSERVED CREST.  THE UNCERTAINTY OF FORECASTS TEND TO BE LESS
THAN THE UNCERTAINTY OF OUTLOOKS DUE TO THEIR SHORTER LEAD TIME.
USERS OF THESE PRODUCTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THEIR NEAREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR CONTINUED UPDATES OF
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHICH CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
FLOOD PLANNING AND FLOOD FIGHTING ACTIVITIES.

OUTLOOK NUMBERS FOR LOCATIONS NOT REPRESENTED IN AHPS PRODUCTS ARE
NOT BEING ISSUED WITH THIS TEXT PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL
QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO AHPS PRODUCTS FOR
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF POTENTIAL FLOODING. REFER TO FLOOD
FORECASTS, IF ANY ARE CURRENTLY ISSUED, FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
ONGOING OR ANTICIPATED FLOODING.

THE NEXT SPRING OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR RELEASE ON MARCH 4TH.

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE DAILY HYDROLOGIC
ACTIVITIES DISCUSSION, FLOOD FORECASTS FOR RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE, DAILY RIVER FORECASTS, AHPS PRODUCTS AND THE MONTHLY
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK, ALL ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPRING
OUTLOOK GRAPHICS CAN BE ACCESSED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MBRFC/?N=NEW_OUTLOOK


   CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS

THE CONDITIONS LISTED BELOW ARE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
AS OF MONDAY EVENING, FEBRUARY 16TH.

MONTANA PLAINS

ACCORDING TO RECENT REPORTS, SNOW DEPTHS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF MONTANA GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES AND MAXIMUM WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE AS MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
REPORTS THAT HAVE SNOW DEPTHS FROM 7-9 INCHES. THE HIGHER WATER
EQUIVALENTS WITHIN THIS RANGE ARE GENERALLY FOUND IN THE MILK BASIN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

WYOMING PLAINS

SNOW DEPTHS IN EASTERN WYOMING RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES. ASSOCIATED WATER
EQUIVALENTS IN THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY AN INCH.

COLORADO PLAINS

MINIMAL SNOW EXISTS IN THE COLORADO PLAINS. CURRENT WATER EQUIVALENTS
SELDOM EXCEED ONE HALF OF AN INCH AND SNOW DEPTHS ARE BEING REPORTED
AS 1-3 INCHES.

MOUNTAINOUS WEST

SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE BASIN ARE CLOSE TO
NORMAL. OF THE THREE WESTERN STATES, WYOMING IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
COMPARED TO AVERAGE. NRCS IS ESTIMATING WYOMING`S SNOWPACK AT 85-95%
OF NORMAL. MONTANA`S SNOWPACK IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 95-115% OF NORMAL AND
COLORADO`S IS 95-105% OF NORMAL. GENERALLY SPEAKING, BY THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR APPROXIMATELY 70% OF THE ACCUMULATED PEAK SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST HAS BEEN RECEIVED.

NORTH DAKOTA

EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WHERE THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE SNOW, NORTH DAKOTA HAS THE LARGEST WATER EQUIVALENT
VALUES IN THE BASIN`S PLAINS. SNOW DEPTHS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE ARE TYPICALLY 2-5 INCHES AND WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM
2-3.5 INCHES.

SOUTH DAKOTA

MOST OF THE SNOW BEING REPORTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA IS EITHER IN THE BLACK
HILLS OR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LOCATIONS
TYPICALLY HAVE 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND AROUND 1-2 INCHES
OF WATER EQUIVALENT.

IOWA AND NEBRASKA

THIS WEEK`S STORM BROUGHT MINOR AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SNOW DEPTHS ALONG THE BORDER OF THE TWO STATES ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 INCHES AND WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NEBRASKA IS REPORTING VERY LITTLE
SNOW CURRENTLY.

KANSAS

EASTERN KANSAS IS REPORTING MORE SNOW THAN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. WATER EQUIVALENTS IN KANSAS DO NOT EXCEED AN INCH AND A HALF.
SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 0-2 INCHES IN THE WEST TO 2-4 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

MISSOURI

MISSOURI RECEIVED THE MOST SNOW OF ANY STATE IN THE BASIN FROM THIS
WEEK`S STORM. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI ONLY REPORTED 1-3 INCHES,
BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE HAD 3-7 INCHES FALL. WATER EQUIVALENTS
RANGED UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE AREAS WITH HEAVIER SNOW.



   CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS

GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE SHALLOW SURFACE SOILS OF THE BASIN RANGE FROM
SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL TO NORMAL. MANY AREAS IN THE BASIN RECEIVED
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN DURING AUTUMN PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF WINTER.
ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE BASIN HAS NOT RECEIVED MUCH
PRECIPITATION SINCE THEN, MODEL STATES STILL INDICATE THE SHALLOW
SURFACE SOILS AS BEING CLOSE TO SATURATED IN MANY AREAS OF THE BASIN.
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AUTUMN RAINS AND MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF WINTER PRECIPITATION HAVE PROVIDED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE REGION
SO AS TO ALLEVIATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THE NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS BEING ABNORMALLY DRY IN THE SHORT-TERM. CURRENTLY,
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS NOT UNDER ANY DROUGHT WARNINGS. THIS
REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT OVER MANY RECENT YEARS WHEN THE
ENTIRE MIDDLE OF THE BASIN WAS LOCKED IN SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT. ISOLATED
FROST DEPTH REPORTS SUGGEST THAT SOILS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN
HAVE FROST PENETRATION RANGING FROM 1-2.5 FEET. LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES ARE REPORTING FROST DEPTHS OF LESS THAN A HALF OF A FOOT.



   CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS

THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE
BASIN, DOWN TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ARE STILL MOSTLY ICED OVER.
GENERALLY, RIVER LEVELS IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL, OR ESTIMATED TO BE SO IF THEY ARE FROZEN. IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA,
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI, MOST RIVERS CURRENTLY HAVE
FLOW CONDITIONS THAT ARE BELOW HISTORICAL MEDIANS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS GENERALIZATION WOULD BE NORTHERN MISSOURI AND THE MAINSTEM OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE FLOWS ARE EXCEEDING NORMAL.

A SUMMARY OF RIVER FLOW CONDITIONS AT SELECTED RIVER STATIONS FOR
FEBRUARY 16TH FOLLOWS:

                                    LONG TERM     CURRENT
                                    MEAN(CFS)      (CFS)
JAMES RIVER       - HURON, SD           60           120(est)
BIG SIOUX RIVER   - AKRON, IA          165           895(est)
PLATTE RIVER      - LOUISVILLE, NE    6260          8200(est)
KANSAS RIVER      - DESOTO, KS        2680          1340
GASCONADE RIVER   - JEROME, MO        1800           825
MISSOURI RIVER    - OMAHA, NE        19100         23700
MISSOURI RIVER    - RULO, NE         25800         34500
MISSOURI RIVER    - ST. JOSEPH, MO   27100         34700
MISSOURI RIVER    - WAVERLY, MO      33000         41100
MISSOURI RIVER    - HERMANN, MO      52800         56100


END MBRFC


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