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000
FGUS63 KKRF 211612
ESGKSR

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  5/25/2013 - 8/23/2013 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CHAPMAN CR AT CHAPMAN KS 4NNW
CHPK1              19.0  26.0  37.0    30   38   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LYONS CR AT WOODBINE KS 7N
WDBK1              17.0  28.0  40.0    25   42    6   10   <5   <5
:VERMILLION R AT LOUISVILLE KS 5NE
LOUK1              30.0  34.0  44.0    41   56   30   38   <5   <5
:ROCK CR AT LOUISVILLE KS
LISK1              27.0  33.0  43.0    13   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CROSS CR AT ROSSVILLE KS
RSSK1              25.0  29.0  31.0    33   38    6    7   <5   <5
:MILL CR AT PAXICO KS 1SW
PXCK1              21.0  31.0  33.0    16   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOLDIER CR AT DELIA KS 3E
DELK1              26.0  26.5  29.5    22   21   20   17   <5   <5
:SOLDIER CR AT TOPEKA KS 4NW
TOPK1              29.0  34.0  40.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DELAWARE R AT MUSCOTAH KS 2S
MSCK1              27.0  28.0  36.0    37   41   31   33    5    5
:STRANGER CR AT EASTON KS
ESTK1              17.0  18.0  23.0    64   72   60   71   <5   <5
:STRANGER CR AT TONGANOXIE KS 4E
TNGK1              23.0  30.0  35.0    39   54   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0525 Z DH12 /DC1305211110/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 5/25/2013 - 8/23/2013

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:CHAPMAN CR
CHPK1       4.8/    5.7/    7.2/   14.0/   20.2/   21.9/   22.3

:LYONS CR
WDBK1       1.9/    2.3/    6.2/   10.3/   17.1/   27.0/   28.8

:VERMILLION R
LOUK1       8.1/    8.9/   17.7/   27.3/   34.6/   39.6/   41.1

:ROCK CR
LISK1       7.2/   10.3/   13.0/   16.4/   22.0/   27.9/   29.8

:CROSS CR
RSSK1       7.3/    9.1/   14.1/   19.0/   25.8/   28.0/   29.2

:MILL CR
PXCK1       3.7/    4.5/    6.0/    8.5/   15.3/   27.0/   27.9

:SOLDIER CR
DELK1       7.4/    9.2/   11.9/   20.8/   24.9/   27.9/   28.1
TOPK1       1.4/    2.5/    4.7/   11.0/   15.7/   19.8/   24.2

:DELAWARE R
MSCK1       2.9/    4.4/   10.2/   24.2/   30.2/   33.6/   35.6

:STRANGER CR
ESTK1       2.1/    4.4/   11.5/   19.1/   20.7/   21.7/   22.6
TNGK1       2.2/    5.4/   11.7/   20.8/   24.9/   26.8/   27.1

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$