Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 301851
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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT Saturday April 30 2016

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MAY

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
THE MAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO MAINSTEM....AND NORMAL TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR AREAS NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
LONGER RANGE CLIMATE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DRYING FOR THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE BASIN...SO THE VERY BEGINNING OF SOME DROUGHT POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE
WARM SEASON IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FOR OTHER AREAS...THOUGH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL FOR MAY, ITS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT MAY IS ALSO TYPICALLY A MONTH OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.  THUS
LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS IS ALWAYS A RISK.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
THE MAJORITY OF THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST BASIN RECEIVED 75 TO 90 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  ON THE
CONVERSE, SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN INDIANA, AND THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALVES OF OHIO RECEIVED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...RUNNING 110 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST BASIN IS CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS.  EXCEPTIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR WESTERN PENSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
STREAMFLOWS ARE GENERALLY PRETTY NORMAL ACROSS THE BALANCE OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  RIVERS AND STREAMS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
STREAMS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE = BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
TURNING POSTIVE = ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
POSTIVE EARLY/THEN TURNING NEGATIVE = BELOW NORMAL EARLY, TURNING ABOVE LATER

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
TRANSITION: EL NINO/NEUTRAL TO EMERGING LA NINA

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
NORMAL TO ABOVE STREAMFLOWS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO RIVER BASIN AND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM.  MAY CONTINUES TO BE A
MONTH OF TRANSITION, PARTICULARLY FOR THE DRIVING FORCES OF THE PACIFIC.  EL
NINO HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS AND MAY COULD BE THE
BEGINNING OF THE EMERGING LA NINA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR.  IN THE
MEANTIME, MOST CLIMATE MODELS HINT AT STRONGER FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
THE MAINSTEM. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE BASIN...PARTICULARLY
THE NORHTEAST IN THIS OUTLOOK TO DRY OUT A BIT.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

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